A cognitive psychological approach of analyzing preference uncertainty in contingent valuation

The sources of preference uncertainty in contingent valuation (CV) studies have rarely been investigated from a theoretical standpoint. This paper proposes a holistic theoretical framework of preference uncertainty that combines microeconomic theory with the theories of cognitive psychology. Empirical testing of the proposed theoretical model was carried out in Australia in the context of a national ‘Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme (CPRS)’ to be introduced in 2010. Two separate ordered probit models for a certainty score associated with CV ‘Yes’ and ‘No’ responses were estimated. The results of the estimated regression models provide evidence supporting the hypotheses drawn from the theoretical model.Contingent valuation, preference uncertainty, cognitive uncertainty, climate change, Australia,

Stochastic Expected Utility and Prospect Theory in a Horse Race: A Finite Mixture Approach

This study compares the performance of Prospect Theory versus Stochastic Expected Utility Theory at fitting data on decision making under risk. Both theories incorporate well-known deviations from Expected Utility Maximization such as the Allais paradox or the fourfold pattern of risk attitudes. Stochastic Expected Utility Theory parsimoniously extends the standard microeconomic model, whereas Prospect Theory, the benchmark for aggregate choice so far, is based on psychological findings. First, the two theories' fit to representative choice is assessed for two experimental data sets, one Swiss and one Chinese. In a second step, finite mixture regressions reveal a consistent mix of two different behavioral types suggesting that researchers may take individual heterogeneity into account in order to avoid aggregation bias.stochastic expected etility theory, prospect theory, finite mixture models

Job Satisfaction and Quits: Theory and Evidence from the German Socioeconomic Panel

We test the simple wealth maximization theory of quitting behavior on the German Socioeconomic Panel (1985-1993). We develop a new methodology to extract a consistent estimate of how the expected present value of one's job (including the non-pecuniary component) compares with outside opportunities in the future from subjective questions about job and job-related satisfactions. It is based on the interpretation of job satisfaction as an expression of the experienced preference for the present job against available alternatives. With this interpretation, the propensity to stay in the present job is simply related to the residual of a job satisfaction equation. Our tests validate this theory of job satisfaction and the economiceconomic theory of quits. We also find that the residual of a job satisfaction equation is a better predictor of quits than the overall level of satisfaction. Dans cette étude, en utilisant les données du Panel Socio-économique Allemand (1985-1993), nous soumettons à réfutation un modèle simple de maximisation de la richesse pour expliquer le fait de quitter une entreprise. ¸ l'aide de questions subjectives sur la satisfaction dans l'emploi et dans d'autres domaines (loisir, santé...)autres types de satisfaction, nous développons une méthodologie permettant de comparer la valeur présente attendue de son emploi (incluant une composante non-pécuniaire) aux opportunités d'emplois extérieures. L'approche retenue est basée sur l'idée que une interprétation dela satisfaction qui exprime une préférence expérimentée de l'emploi actuel contre les alternatives d'emplois disponibles. La propension à garder l'emploi occupé dans ce contexte dépend estsimplementreliée aux du résidus de l'équation de satisfaction dans l'emploi. Nos tests confirment cette théorie de la satisfaction et le modèle classique de mobilité volontairela théorie économique de quitter volontairement son emploi. Finalement, nous observons que le résidu de l'équation de satisfaction dans l'emploi offre une meilleure prédiction du départ volontaire que le niveau général de la satisfaction.Voluntary quit, job satisfaction, wealth maximization model, Mobilité volontaire, satisfaction à l'emploi, modèle de maximisation de la richesse

On the links between employment, partnership quality, and the desire to have a first child

We examine the impact of precarious work (low income and job security satisfaction) on the intention to have a first child. We consider a direct and an indirect effect; the latter is mediated by partners’ conflict behaviour, conflict level, and partnership quality. We assume that a satisfactory partnership is positively associated with the intention to have a first child. The analyses are based on a subsample of the German Generations and Gender Survey. For men we found a direct effect of income and an indirect effect of job security satisfaction on childbearing intentions, whereas for women no direct and only a weak indirect impact of precarious work could be observed.employment, fertility, partnerships

Stronger Utility

Empirical research often requires a method how to convert a deterministic economic theory into an econometric model. A popular method is to add a random error term on the utility scale. This method, however, violates stochastic dominance. A modification of this method is proposed to avoid violations of dominance. The modified model compares favorably to other existing models in terms of goodness of fit to experimental data. The modified model can rationalize the preference reversal phenomenon. An intuitive axiomatic characterization of the modified model is provided. Important microeconomic concept of risk aversion is well-defined in the modified model.Decision Theory, Probabilistic Choice, Stochastic Dominance, Strong Utility, Risk Aversion

Does ignoring multidestination trips in the travel cost method cause a systematic bias?

The present paper demonstrates that treating multidestination trips (MDT) as single‐destination trips does not involve any systematic upward or downward bias in consumer surplus (CS) estimates because the direct negative effect of a price increase (treating MDT as a single‐destination trip) is offset by a shift in the estimated demand curve. Still, ignoring MDT can greatly underestimate or overestimate the CS. In addition, we demonstrate that there is a sound theoretical basis for using preference information for allocating travel costs between different sites included in the MDT package. A novel extreme value approach is proposed, which does not require any overly restrictive assumptions about consumer preferences. This approach is applied to the zonal travel cost model of the Bellenden Ker National Park, Australia. Parametric and non‐parametric estimation techniques are used for calculating CS estimates, and the effects of different MDT treatments and estimation methods are compared.Research Methods/ Statistical Methods,

Reported Job Satisfaction : What Does It Mean?

By reporting his satisfaction with his job or any other experience, an individual does not communicate the number of utils that he feels. Instead, he expresses his posterior preference over available alternatives conditional on acquired knowledge of the past. This new interpretation of reported job satisfaction restores the power of microeconomic theory without denying the essential role of discrepancies between one’s situation and available opportunities. Posterior human wealth discrepancies are found to be the best predictor of reported job satisfaction. Static models of relative utility and other subjective well-being assumptions are all unambiguously rejected by the data, as well as an \"economic\" model in which job satisfaction is a measure of posterior human wealth. The \"posterior choice\" model readily explains why so many people usually report themselves as happy or satisfied, why both younger and older age groups are insensitive to current earning discrepancies, and why the past weighs more heavily than the present and the future.En rapportant sa satisfaction vis-à-vis son travail ou toute autre expérience, un individu ne communique pas le nombre d’unités d’utilité qu’il ressent. Plutôt, conditionnellement à ses expériences antérieures, il exprime a posteriori sa préférence relativement à d’autres emplois ou situations alternatives. Cette nouvelle interprétation de la satisfaction révélée rend à la théorie microéconomique son pouvoir explicatif tout en reconnaissant le rôle essentiel joué par la différence entre la situation d’une personne et les opportunités. Les différences a posteriori dans la richesse humaine sont les meilleurs prédicteurs de la satisfaction révélée. Les modèles statiques de l’utilité relative et ceux d’utilité subjective sont tous rejetés par les données, de même que le modèle économique où la satisfaction de l’emploi est une mesure de la richesse humaine a posteriori. Le modèle de choix a posteriori explique pourquoi, dans les enquêtes, une grande majorité de personnes expriment leur bonheur ou leur satisfaction, pourquoi les jeunes et les vieux ne réagissent pas aux différentielles de revenus courants et pourquoi le passé joue davantage que la situation présente ou future

A Study of Factors Affecting the Renewal of Health Insurance Policy

Health insurance policies are generally one-year policies and to remain part of the insurance poll, policyholders are required to renew their policies each year. Understanding the factors that affect the demand and renewal decisions to continue in health insurance programme is imperative for future growth and development of the insurance sector. We extend our previous work on factors affecting the decision to purchase health insurance to understand the factors affecting the renewal of insurance policy. We find the factors affecting health insurance renewal are not the same as factors affecting health insurance purchase decision. This has implications for insurance providers. The study also suggests customer satisfaction as an important factor influencing the renewal decision of policyholder.

Hierarchical Structure in Brazilian Industrial Firms: an Econometric Study

The paper investigates different implications of theoretical models for hierarchical structure. A sample of 6567 firms in the Brazilian manufacturing industry is considered and explanatory factors pertaining structural characteristics, network technology, technological innovations, managerial innovations and incentive mechanisms are investigated. Despite the broader availability of explanatory variables in some categories, one only detects important joint effects accruing from the group of network technology variables as had been previously obtained in the related literature. In contrast, however, one can detect a marginally significant joint effect of the newly considered group of incentive mechanisms variables. The evidence in terms of individual effects is largely consistent with the predicted effects from the theoretical literature on hierarchy.