Bounded Influence Approaches to Constrained Mixed Vector Autoregressive Models

The proliferation of many clinical studies obtaining multiple biophysical signals from several individuals repeatedly in time is increasingly recognized, a recognition generating growth in statistical models that analyze cross-sectional time series data. In general, these statistical models try to answer two questions: (i) intra-individual dynamics of the response and its relation to some covariates; and, (ii) how this dynamics can be aggregated consistently in a group. In response to the first question, we propose a covariate-adjusted constrained Vector Autoregressive model, a technique similar to the STARMAX model (Stoffer, JASA 81, 762-772), to describe serial dependence of observations. In this way, the number of parameters to be estimated is kept minimal while offering flexibility for the model to explore higher order dependence. In response to (ii), we use mixed effects analysis that accommodates modelling of heterogeneity among cross-sections arising from covariate effects that vary from one cross-section to another. Although estimation of the model can proceed using standard maximum likelihood techniques, we believed it is advantageous to use bounded influence procedures in the modelling (such as choosing constraints) and parameter estimation so that the effects of outliers can be controlled. In particular, we use M-estimation with a redescending bounding function because its influence function is always bounded. Furthermore, assuming consistency, this influence function is useful to obtain the limiting distribution of the estimates. However, this distribution may not necessarily yield accurate inference in the presence of contamination as the actual asymptotic distribution might have wider tails. This led us to investigate bootstrap approximation techniques. A sampling scheme based on IID innovations is modified to accommodate the cross-sectional structure of the data. Then the M-estimation is applied to each bootstrap sample naively to obtain the asymptotic distribution of the estimates.We apply these strategies to the extracted BOLD activation from several regions of the brain from a group of individuals to describe joint dynamic behavior between these locations. We used simulated data with both innovation and additive outliers to test whether the estimation procedure is accurate despite contamination

Joint Estimation of Multiple Graphical Models from High Dimensional Time Series

In this manuscript we consider the problem of jointly estimating multiple graphical models in high dimensions. We assume that the data are collected from n subjects, each of which consists of T possibly dependent observations. The graphical models of subjects vary, but are assumed to change smoothly corresponding to a measure of closeness between subjects. We propose a kernel based method for jointly estimating all graphical models. Theoretically, under a double asymptotic framework, where both (T,n) and the dimension d can increase, we provide the explicit rate of convergence in parameter estimation. It characterizes the strength one can borrow across different individuals and impact of data dependence on parameter estimation. Empirically, experiments on both synthetic and real resting state functional magnetic resonance imaging (rs-fMRI) data illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.Comment: 40 page

Multilinear tensor regression for longitudinal relational data

A fundamental aspect of relational data, such as from a social network, is the possibility of dependence among the relations. In particular, the relations between members of one pair of nodes may have an effect on the relations between members of another pair. This article develops a type of regression model to estimate such effects in the context of longitudinal and multivariate relational data, or other data that can be represented in the form of a tensor. The model is based on a general multilinear tensor regression model, a special case of which is a tensor autoregression model in which the tensor of relations at one time point are parsimoniously regressed on relations from previous time points. This is done via a separable, or Kronecker-structured, regression parameter along with a separable covariance model. In the context of an analysis of longitudinal multivariate relational data, it is shown how the multilinear tensor regression model can represent patterns that often appear in relational and network data, such as reciprocity and transitivity.Comment: Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/15-AOAS839 in the Annals of Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Oil price distortions and their short- and long-run impacts on the Nigerian economy

Given its economic structure, high energy intensity and simultaneity as an oil importing and exporting economy, Nigeria stands out as a special case to study the oil-price-macroeconomy relation. This paper studies the linear and asymmetric impacts of oil price shocks on the Nigerian economy between1970Q1and 2008Q4. Using the vector error correction mechanism and the Granger causality test, we investigate the long-run and short-run impacts of oil price shocks on the supply-side of the economy, wealth transfer effect, inflation effect and real balance effect. Overall, the results from the linear model show that oil price shocks are not a major determinant of macroeconomic activity in Nigeria, and macroeconomic activities in Nigeria do not Granger cause world oil prices. Further, the results from our non-linear specification reveals that the impact of world oil price shocks on the Nigerian economy are asymmetric. Hence, the common practise of national development planning premised on forecasts of international oil prices should be de-emphasized in Nigeria.Oil price shocks; linear and asymmetric effects; transmission channels; Nigerian economy.