Behavior based adaptive call predictor

Predicting future calls can be the next advanced feature of the next-generation telecommunication networks as the service providers are looking to offer new services to their customers. Call prediction can be useful to many applications such as planning daily schedules, avoiding unwanted communications (e.g. voice spam), and resource planning in call centers. Predicting calls is a very challenging task. We believe that this is an emerging area of research in ambient intelligence where the electronic devices are sensitive and responsive to people’s needs and behavior. In particular, we believe that the results of this research will lead to higher productivity and quality of life. In this article, we present a Call Predictor (CP) that offers two new advanced features for the next-generation phones namely “Incoming Call Forecast” and “Intelligent Address Book.” For the Incoming Call Forecast, the CP makes the next-24-hour incoming call prediction based on recent caller’s behavior and reciprocity. For the Intelligent Address Book, the CP generates a list of most likely contacts/numbers to be dialed at any given time based on the user’s behavior and reciprocity. The CP consists of two major components: Probability Estimator (PE) and Trend Detector (TD). The PE computes the probability of receiving/initiating a call based on the caller/user’s calling behavior and reciprocity. We show that the recent trend of the caller/user’s calling pattern has higher correlation to the future pattern than the pattern derived from the entire historical data. The TD detects the recent trend of the caller/user’s calling pattern and computes the adequacy of historical data in terms of reversed time (time that runs towards the past) based on a trace distance. The recent behavior detection mechanism allows CP to adapt its computation in response to the new calling behaviors. Therefore, CP is adaptive to the recent behavior. For our analysis, we use the real-life call logs of 94 mobile phone users over nine months, which were collected by the Reality Mining Project group at MIT. The performance of the CP is validated for two months based on seven months of training data. The experimental results show that the CP performs reasonably well as an incoming call predictor (Incoming Call Forecast) with false positive rate of 8%, false negative rate of 1%, and error rate of 9%, and as an outgoing call predictor (Intelligent Address Book) with the accuracy of 70% when the list has five entries. The functionality of the CP can be useful in assisting its user in carrying out everyday life activities such as scheduling daily plans by using the Incoming Call Forecast, and saving time from searching for the phone number in a typically lengthy contact book by using the Intelligent Address Book. Furthermore, we describe other useful applications of CP besides its own aforementioned features including Call Firewall and Call Reminder

From Understanding Telephone Scams to Implementing Authenticated Caller ID Transmission

abstract: The telephone network is used by almost every person in the modern world. With the rise of Internet access to the PSTN, the telephone network today is rife with telephone spam and scams. Spam calls are significant annoyances for telephone users, unlike email spam, spam calls demand immediate attention. They are not only significant annoyances but also result in significant financial losses in the economy. According to complaint data from the FTC, complaints on illegal calls have made record numbers in recent years. Americans lose billions to fraud due to malicious telephone communication, despite various efforts to subdue telephone spam, scam, and robocalls. In this dissertation, a study of what causes the users to fall victim to telephone scams is presented, and it demonstrates that impersonation is at the heart of the problem. Most solutions today primarily rely on gathering offending caller IDs, however, they do not work effectively when the caller ID has been spoofed. Due to a lack of authentication in the PSTN caller ID transmission scheme, fraudsters can manipulate the caller ID to impersonate a trusted entity and further a variety of scams. To provide a solution to this fundamental problem, a novel architecture and method to authenticate the transmission of the caller ID is proposed. The solution enables the possibility of a security indicator which can provide an early warning to help users stay vigilant against telephone impersonation scams, as well as provide a foundation for existing and future defenses to stop unwanted telephone communication based on the caller ID information.Dissertation/ThesisDoctoral Dissertation Computer Science 201

Inferring Social and Internal Context Using a Mobile Phone

This dissertation is composed of research studies that contribute to three research areas including social context-aware computing, internal context-aware computing, and human behavioral data mining. In social context-aware computing, four studies are conducted. First, mobile phone user calling behavioral patterns are characterized in forms of randomness level where relationships among them are then identified. Next, a study is conducted to investigate the relationship between the calling behavior and organizational groups. Third, a method is presented to quantitatively define mobile social closeness and social groups, which are then used to identify social group sizes and scaling ratio. Last, based on the mobile social grouping framework, the significant role of social ties in communication patterns is revealed. In internal context-aware computing, two studies are conducted where the notions of internal context are intention and situation. For intentional context, the goal is to sense the intention of the user in placing calls. A model is thus presented for predicting future calls envisaged as a call predicted list (CPL), which makes use of call history to build a probabilistic model of calling behavior. As an incoming call predictor, CPL is a list of numbers/contacts that are the most likely to be the callers within the next hour(s), which is useful for scheduling and daily planning. As an outgoing call predictor, CPL is generated as a list of numbers/contacts that are the most likely to be dialed when the user attempts to make an outgoing call (e.g., by flipping open or unlocking the phone). This feature helps save time from having to search through a lengthy phone book. For situational context, a model is presented for sensing the user's situation (e.g., in a library, driving a car, etc.) based on embedded sensors. The sensed context is then used to switch the phone into a suitable alert mode accordingly (e.g., vibrate mode while in a library, handsfree mode while driving, etc.). Inferring (social and internal) context introduces a challenging research problem in human behavioral data mining. Context is determined by the current state of mind (internal), relationship (social), and surroundings (physical). Thus, the current state of context is important and can be derived from the recent behavior and pattern. In data mining research area, therefore, two frameworks are developed for detecting recent patterns, where one is a model-driven approach and the other is a data-driven approach