Climate Science: Is it currently designed to answer questions?

For a variety of inter-related cultural, organizational, and political reasons, progress in climate science and the actual solution of scientific problems in this field have moved at a much slower rate than would normally be possible. Not all these factors are unique to climate science, but the heavy influence of politics has served to amplify the role of the other factors. Such factors as the change in the scientific paradigm from a dialectic opposition between theory and observation to an emphasis on simulation and observational programs, the inordinate growth of administration in universities and the consequent increase in importance of grant overhead, and the hierarchical nature of formal scientific organizations are cosidered. This paper will deal with the origin of the cultural changes and with specific examples of the operation and interaction of these factors. In particular, we will show how political bodies act to control scientific institutions, how scientists adjust both data and even theory to accommodate politically correct positions, and how opposition to these positions is disposed of.Comment: 36 pages, no figures. v2: footnotes 16, 19, 20 added, footnote 17 changed, typos corrected. v3: description of John Holdren corrected, expanded discussion of I=PAT formula, typos corrected. v4: The reference to Deming (2005) added in v3 stated that a 1995 email in question was from Jonathan Overpeck. In fact, Deming had left the sender of the email unnamed. The revision v4 now omits the identification of Overpeck. However, the revision v4 now includes a more recent and verifiable reference to a 2005 emai

NAFTA at Ten: Lessons from Recent Studies

This report provides an analytical summary of the economic lessons reached in support of Congress's role in the trade policy process. On January 1, 2004, the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) completed its tenth year and most of its provisions are now implemented. NAFTA is a free trade agreement (FTA) that effectively added Mexico to the U.S.-Canada FTA completed in 1989. Its anniversary has sparked numerous evaluations, which are particularly relevant as the United States pursues free trade agreements with multiple Latin American countries. Most studies found that NAFTA's effects on the U.S. and Mexican economies to be modest at most

Working Paper 17-08 - Growth and Productivity in Belgium

The objective of the report is to provide an overview of the main drivers of economic growth and the productivity evolution in Belgium, in comparison with the EU and the US, between 1970 and 2005, based on a consistent data set. The growth accounting methodology is applied to explain value added and labour productivity growth for the total economy, manufacturing and market services. This decomposition exercise diverges from what has been applied in Belgium up to now, as it uses capital services flows rather than the capital stock and labour services flows rather than the number of hours worked to measure the contribution of these factors of production to economic and productivity growth. Contributions of the main industries to value added, employment and productivity growth are also estimated.Growth accounting, Growth contribution, Productivity, MFP, ICT

Super-acceleration on the Brane by Energy Flow from the Bulk

We consider a brane cosmological model with energy exchange between brane and bulk. Parameterizing the energy exchange term by the scale factor and Hubble parameter, we are able to exactly solve the modified Friedmann equation on the brane. In this model, the equation of state for the effective dark energy has a transition behavior changing from $w_{de}^{eff}>-1$ to $w_{de}^{eff}<-1$, while the equation of state for the dark energy on the brane has $w>-1$. Fitting data from type Ia supernova, Sloan Digital Sky Survey and Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe, our universe is predicted now in the state of super-acceleration with $w_{de0}^{eff}=-1.21$.Comment: Revtex, 11 pages including 2 figures,v2: tpos fixed, references added, to appear in JCA

China's Organic Revolution

Agriculture in China is at the onset of an Organic Revolution. From 2000 to 2006, China has moved from 45th to 2nd position in the world in number of hectares under organic management. China now has more land under organic horticulture than any other country. In the year 2005/2006, China added 12% to the world’s organic area. This accounted for 63% of the world’s annual increase in organic land, and China now has 11% of the world’s organically managed land. The antecedents to China’s Organic Revolution are examined, and reveal further growth potential in the Chinese organic sector. Longitudinal analysis of China’s food production statistics reveals explosive growth, and the consequent capacity for export has implications for food exporting nations. China has adopted an innovative path, via Green Food, towards achieving an organic future. This transition strategy may be a model for other countries seeking a rapid expansion of organics. Food exporting countries can expect in future to have their chemi-agricultural produce competing with certified organic produce of China

Philanthropy and Outcomes: Dilemmas in the Quest for Accountability

Grantees report that never before have grant negotiations with foundation staffs been so focused on specifying outcomes. Some foundations have employed consultants to work with their staffs so that inputs, operational processes, and intended intermediate and long-term outcomes and impacts are specified and differentiated. A number have added evaluation departments to their organizational structure. Small and medium sized foundations, which have previously given exclusively to direct services, are now asking for and funding evaluations, so that they may know with objectivity and rigor if the projected outcomes are achieved. We do not recommend a moratorium on all outcome and impact assessments. In some settings, formal impact evaluation is what is called for. What we are arguing for is a strategic rethinking of when to utilize the tools of formal outcome and impact research