744 research outputs found
Learning Machines Supporting Bankruptcy Prediction
In many economic applications it is desirable to make future predictions about the financial status of a company. The focus of predictions is mainly if a company will default or not. A support vector machine (SVM) is one learning method which uses historical data to establish a classification rule called a score or an SVM. Companies with scores above zero belong to one group and the rest to another group. Estimation of the probability of default (PD) values can be calculated from the scores provided by an SVM. The transformation used in this paper is a combination of weighting ranks and of smoothing the results using the PAV algorithm. The conversion is then monotone. This discussion paper is based on the Creditreform database from 1997 to 2002. The indicator variables were converted to financial ratios; it transpired out that eight of the 25 were useful for the training of the SVM. The results showed that those ratios belong to activity, profitability, liquidity and leverage. Finally, we conclude that SVMs are capable of extracting the necessary information from financial balance sheets and then to predict the future solvency or insolvent of a company. Banks in particular will benefit from these results by allowing them to be more aware of their risk when lending money.Support Vector Machine, Bankruptcy, Default Probabilities Prediction, Profitability
Theoretical Interpretations and Applications of Radial Basis Function Networks
Medical applications usually used Radial Basis Function Networks just as Artificial Neural Networks. However, RBFNs are Knowledge-Based Networks that can be interpreted in several way: Artificial Neural Networks, Regularization Networks, Support Vector Machines, Wavelet Networks, Fuzzy Controllers, Kernel Estimators, Instanced-Based Learners. A survey of their interpretations and of their corresponding learning algorithms is provided as well as a brief survey on dynamic learning algorithms. RBFNs' interpretations can suggest applications that are particularly interesting in medical domains
Bayesian Neural Tree Models for Nonparametric Regression
Frequentist and Bayesian methods differ in many aspects, but share some basic
optimal properties. In real-life classification and regression problems,
situations exist in which a model based on one of the methods is preferable
based on some subjective criterion. Nonparametric classification and regression
techniques, such as decision trees and neural networks, have frequentist
(classification and regression trees (CART) and artificial neural networks) as
well as Bayesian (Bayesian CART and Bayesian neural networks) approaches to
learning from data. In this work, we present two hybrid models combining the
Bayesian and frequentist versions of CART and neural networks, which we call
the Bayesian neural tree (BNT) models. Both models exploit the architecture of
decision trees and have lesser number of parameters to tune than advanced
neural networks. Such models can simultaneously perform feature selection and
prediction, are highly flexible, and generalize well in settings with a limited
number of training observations. We study the consistency of the proposed
models, and derive the optimal value of an important model parameter. We also
provide illustrative examples using a wide variety of real-life regression data
sets
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