A New Officer for a New Army: The Leadership of Major Hugh J.C. Peirs in the Great War

World War One brought dramatic changes to the officer corps of the British Expeditionary Force (BEF) fighting on the Western Front. The heavy casualties sustained meant that mass mobilization at home had to take place in order to replace combat losses. As a result, the previously small, but professional British army was forced to transition into a large citizen-soldier army. This new force required not just new officers, but an entirely new leadership model. The formation and exercise of this new style of leadership is examined through the letters of Major John Hugh Chevalier Peirs, executive officer and later commander of the 8th Queen’s Royal West Surrey Regiment who served on the Western Front from 1915-1918. Major Peirs’ letters highlight the emergence of this new breed of leadership within Kitchener’s New Army and make clear why its emergence was so important to the overall morale and success of the BEF

Horse Supply and the Development of the New Model Army, 1642-1646

The debate over whether the creation of the New Model Army represented continuity or change in the supply systems of parliamentarian armies has suffered from a lack of detailed research on the Earl of Essex’s army. This article begins to redress the balance by examining the supply of horses and saddles to the armies of Essex, Manchester, Waller, and Fairfax in equal depth. Studying Essex’s army is vital to our understanding of the origins of the New Model Army. There was more continuity between the two than most historians have assumed, but there were also significant changes in 1645

A reason-based theory of rational choice

The standard rational choice paradigm explains an individual’s preferences by his beliefs and his fundamental desires. For instance, someone’s preference for joining the army might be explained by certain beliefs about what life in the army is like and a desire for such a life. While beliefs may change (by new information), fundamental desires are totally fixed. One shortcoming of this paradigm is that reasons and motivations play no explicit role. Some of the more fundamental preference changes that one can undergo seem to reach beyond information-learning and to involve a change in the reasons or goals by which one is fundamentally motivated. Such changes of motivating reasons may come in connection with a changing ability to abstractly represent certain aspects of the world (like the thirteenth move in a game) or to imagine certain qualitative aspects of the world (like feelings of complete loneliness). Standard rational choice models implicitly assume away such changes. This paper proposes a formal reason-based model of preferences. The model explains an individual’s preferences by the set of reasons that motivate him. The preference of our example individual for joining the army would be explained by the set of reasons that motivate him, such as service to his country, an athletic body, and comradeship. Preference change in our model thus stems not exclusively from new information but often also from a change of the set of motivating reasons. If our example individual suddenly loses his preference for joining the army and joins a charity, new reasons (such as worldwide justice) might have become motivating while others (such as an athletic body) might have lost their motivational power. Our notion of a ‘(motivating) reason’ is open to different interpretations and applications, like ones related to conceptualisation or imagination abilities. We formulate two natural axioms on reason-based preferences, the first ensuring that preferences are determined by the motivating reasons and the second ensuring that preferences change in a coherent way as additional reasons become motivating. These two axioms are shown to imply a parsimonious representation of preferences: a single binary relation (which ranks the consistent reason sets) is sufficient to generate all individual preferences across possible individual states (i.e., possible sets of motivating reasons).mathematical economics;

Army ants algorithm for rare event sampling of delocalized nonadiabatic transitions by trajectory surface hopping and the estimation of sampling errors by the bootstrap method

The most widely used algorithm for Monte Carlo sampling of electronic transitions in trajectory surface hopping (TSH) calculations is the so-called anteater algorithm, which is inefficient for sampling low-probability nonadiabatic events. We present a new sampling scheme (called the army ants algorithm) for carrying out TSH calculations that is applicable to systems with any strength of coupling. The army ants algorithm is a form of rare event sampling whose efficiency is controlled by an input parameter. By choosing a suitable value of the input parameter the army ants algorithm can be reduced to the anteater algorithm (which is efficient for strongly coupled cases), and by optimizing the parameter the army ants algorithm may be efficiently applied to systems with low-probability events. To demonstrate the efficiency of the army ants algorithm, we performed atom–diatom scattering calculations on a model system involving weakly coupled electronic states. Fully converged quantum mechanical calculations were performed, and the probabilities for nonadiabatic reaction and nonreactive deexcitation (quenching) were found to be on the order of 10^–8. For such low-probability events the anteater sampling scheme requires a large number of trajectories (~10^10) to obtain good statistics and converged semiclassical results. In contrast by using the new army ants algorithm converged results were obtained by running 10^5 trajectories. Furthermore, the results were found to be in excellent agreement with the quantum mechanical results. Sampling errors were estimated using the bootstrap method, which is validated for use with the army ants algorithm

Did NEPA Drown New Orleans? The Levees, the Blame Game, and the Hazards of Hindsight

This Article highlights the. hazards of hindsight analysis of the causes of catastrophic events, focusing on theories of why the New Orleans levees failed during Hurricane Katrina in 2005 and particularly on the theory that the levee failures were caused by a 1977 National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) lawsuit that resulted in a temporary injunction against the Army Corps of Engineers\u27 hurricane protection project for New Orleans. The Article provides a detailed historical reconstruction of the decision process that eventuated in the New Orleans storm surge protection system, focusing both on the political and legal factors involved and on the standard project hurricane risk assessment model that lay at the heart of the Army Corps of Engineers\u27 decisionmaking process. The Article then offers a detailed analysis. of how and why Hurricane Katrina overcame the New Orleans levee system. As this analysis demonstrates, the argument that the NEPA lawsuit played a meaningful causal role in the Katrina disaster is not persuasive. Parallel lessons are then drawn for forward-looking disaster policy. The same problems of uncertainty and complexity that confound the attempt through hindsight to attribute causal responsibility for a disaster also confound the attempt to predict using foresight the variety of outcomes, including potentially disastrous ones, that may flow from policy choices. Focusing narrowly on any single parameter of complex natural and human systems is likely to dramatically distort environmental, health, and safety decisionmaking, whether the parameter is a standard project hurricane when planning a hurricane protection plan, or the equally mythical lawsuit that sunk New Orleans when attempting to allocate responsibility for the plan\u27s failure some forty years later

Ground effects on Loran-C signals

In conjunction with the test and evaluation of the position fixing capabilities of the Army Manpack Loran Receiver AN/PSN-6, an extensive series of time difference and signal amplitude measurements were made within a 100 km map grid square encompassing Fort Monmouth, New Jersey. The test location is within the coverage area of the East Coast Loran-C Chain. The data were used to develop a simple smooth-earth model for the test area as well as to estimate the magnitude and distributions of deviations from this model. Local propagation processes associated with topographic features and the grid of overhead wires in the test area are shown to contribute to the deviations from the model

Disrupt, Deny, Dismantle: A Special Operations Forces (SOF) Model for Combatting New Terrorism

Terrorism in the new millennium has morphed drastically since the 1970s. The terrorist organizations of today are a hybrid between the insurgent group models of the 1960s and modern terrorist organizations such as Al Qaeda. This hybrid model has created what has become a transnational insurgency recruited, trained, and led by major terrorist networks such as the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL). Even smaller regional groups such as Boko Haram have surpassed merely conducting terrorist attacks. These smaller groups are also focused on controlling territory. Tan (2008) refers to this change as “New Terrorism”. To combat New Terrorism, a combination of counterinsurgency tactics and counterterrorism tactics must be employed. This study will examine the need to define roles and responsibilities for various organization and various echelons through the introduction of a new Special Operations Forces model; Disrupt, Deny, Dismantle. The acronym to be used for this model is D3. This model recommends different tactics, techniques, and procedures for forces not specifically assigned the counterterrorism mission. As new terrorism continues to change, only counterterrorism forces should be tasked with the Find Fix Finish, Exploit, Analyze, and Disseminate (F3EAD) model of targeting (Counterterrorism 2014). All other military and law enforcement elements should disrupt and deny the enemy in support of the counterterrorism effort. This study is based on extensive research and the author’s 23 years of experience serving in U.S. Army Special Forces. Throughout his career, the author interacted with people from various social, economic, and professional backgrounds throughout the Middle East, Africa, and the Balkans

Contracts and Behavioral Patterns for SoS: The EU IP DANSE approach

This paper presents some of the results of the first year of DANSE, one of the first EU IP projects dedicated to SoS. Concretely, we offer a tool chain that allows to specify SoS and SoS requirements at high level, and analyse them using powerful toolsets coming from the formal verification area. At the high level, we use UPDM, the system model provided by the british army as well as a new type of contract based on behavioral patterns. At low level, we rely on a powerful simulation toolset combined with recent advances from the area of statistical model checking. The approach has been applied to a case study developed at EADS Innovation Works.Comment: In Proceedings AiSoS 2013, arXiv:1311.319

Conflict, Ideology and Foreign Aid

In this paper, we present a rent-seeking model of conflict, which highlights the role of ideology in determining whether the government or the rebels take the initiative. We use the model to interpret the impact of a large-scale Community-Driven Development project on civil conflict in the Philippines. The country is characterized by the presence of two rebel groups, the New People's Army (NPA) and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF), with two distinct ideologies. We use a unique geo-referenced panel dataset on the occurrence of conflicts in 2003 and 2006 gathered from local newspapers that we match with nationally representative household survey and budget data on all municipalities in the country. Consistent with our model's predictions, using a variety of estimation strategies, we find robust evidence that the project leads to a decline in MILF-related events and to an increase in NPA-related events.Civil Conflict;foreign aid;Rent Seeking;Community-Driven Development;philippines