The neurobiology of reference-dependent value computation

A key focus of current research in neuroeconomics concerns how the human brain computes value. Although, value has generally been viewed as an absolute measure (e.g., expected value, reward magnitude), much evidence suggests that value is more often computed with respect to a changing reference point, rather than in isolation. Here, we present the results of a study aimed to dissociate brain regions involved in reference-independent (i.e., “absolute”) value computations, from those involved in value computations relative to a reference point. During functional magnetic resonance imaging, subjects acted as buyers and sellers during a market exchange of lottery tickets. At a behavioral level, we demonstrate that subjects systematically accorded a higher value to objects they owned relative to those they did not, an effect that results from a shift in reference point (i.e., status quo bias or endowment effect). Our results show that activity in orbitofrontal cortex and dorsal striatum track parameters such as the expected value of lottery tickets indicating the computation of reference-independent value. In contrast, activity in ventral striatum indexed the degree to which stated prices, at a within-subjects and between-subjects level, were distorted with respect to a reference point. The findings speak to the neurobiological underpinnings of reference dependency during real market value computations

Contextualized property market models vs. Generalized mass appraisals: An innovative approach

The present research takes into account the current and widespread need for rational valuation methodologies, able to correctly interpret the available market data. An innovative automated valuation model has been simultaneously implemented to three Italian study samples, each one constituted by two-hundred residential units sold in the years 2016-2017. The ability to generate a "unique" functional form for the three different territorial contexts considered, in which the relationships between the influencing factors and the selling prices are specified by different multiplicative coefficients that appropriately represent the market phenomena of each case study analyzed, is the main contribution of the proposed methodology. The method can provide support for private operators in the assessment of the territorial investment conveniences and for the public entities in the decisional phases regarding future tax and urban planning policies

Does New Zealand visitors follow the Joseph Effect? Some empirical evidence

The report departs from conventional time series analysis and investigates the existence of long memory (LRD) in the stream of daily visitors, arriving from various sources to New Zealand from 1997 to 2010, using selected estimators of the Hurst-exponent. The daily arrivals of visitors are treated as a stream of "digital signals" with the inherent noise. After minimizing the noise (i.e. the presence of short-term trends, periodicities, and cycles) we found the existence of significant long memory embedded in our data of daily visitors from all sources and in the aggregate. Strong evidence of embedded “long memory” implies that Joseph Effect – that good times beget good times and bad times beget bad – whose existence in the underlying process may have interesting implications for tourism policy makers. Our findings suggest evidence of such long term memory in tourist arrival data. Further, unless this long memory effect is taken into consideration, any traditional statistical analysis based on Gaussian and Poisson assumptions may be overly biased

The Greek Current Account Deficit:Is it Sustainable after all?

The large Greek current account deficit figures reported during the past few years have become the source of increasing concern regarding its sustainability. Bearing in mind the variety of techniques employed and the views expressed as regards the analysis and the assessment of the size of the current account deficit, this paper resorts to using neural network architectures to demonstrate that, despite its size, the current account deficit of Greece can be considered sustainable. This conclusion, however, is not meant to neglect the structural weaknesses that lead to such a deficit. In fact, even in the absence of any financing requirements these high deficit figures point to serious competitiveness losses with everything that these may entail for the future performance of the Greek economy.Neural Networks; Current Account Deficit Sustainability

"The Extended Panda's Thumb and a New Global Financial Architecture"

An evolutionary theory of international financial institutions is developed and two broad types of possible (evolutionary) equilibrium Global Financial Architectures(GFAs) are identified. The first is called an overarching type, exemplified by the classical gold standard and the defunct Bretton Woods system. The second is called a hybrid form that allows for the existence and coevolution of some Regional Financial Architectures(RFAs) as well. The changing roles of the IMF and national economic policies are examined within these two possible financial architectures under globalization It is found that from an evolutionary perspective, a hybrid form with a reformed IMF and regional cooperation through appropriately designed RFAs can create the best possible institutional and policy environment for financial stability and sustained growth .An evolutionary argument, called "the extended panda's thumb", is advanced to establish the possibility of adapting many existing institutions including the IMF, for creating a hybrid GFA. The tentative steps taken towards regional cooperation in Asia after the financial crisis are discussed to illustrate the opportunities and challenges posed by the need to evolve towards a hybrid GFA.