Estimating Time-Varying Effective Connectivity in High-Dimensional fMRI Data Using Regime-Switching Factor Models

Recent studies on analyzing dynamic brain connectivity rely on sliding-window analysis or time-varying coefficient models which are unable to capture both smooth and abrupt changes simultaneously. Emerging evidence suggests state-related changes in brain connectivity where dependence structure alternates between a finite number of latent states or regimes. Another challenge is inference of full-brain networks with large number of nodes. We employ a Markov-switching dynamic factor model in which the state-driven time-varying connectivity regimes of high-dimensional fMRI data are characterized by lower-dimensional common latent factors, following a regime-switching process. It enables a reliable, data-adaptive estimation of change-points of connectivity regimes and the massive dependencies associated with each regime. We consider the switching VAR to quantity the dynamic effective connectivity. We propose a three-step estimation procedure: (1) extracting the factors using principal component analysis (PCA) and (2) identifying dynamic connectivity states using the factor-based switching vector autoregressive (VAR) models in a state-space formulation using Kalman filter and expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm, and (3) constructing the high-dimensional connectivity metrics for each state based on subspace estimates. Simulation results show that our proposed estimator outperforms the K-means clustering of time-windowed coefficients, providing more accurate estimation of regime dynamics and connectivity metrics in high-dimensional settings. Applications to analyzing resting-state fMRI data identify dynamic changes in brain states during rest, and reveal distinct directed connectivity patterns and modular organization in resting-state networks across different states.Comment: 21 page

Optimal map of the modular structure of complex networks

Modular structure is pervasive in many complex networks of interactions observed in natural, social and technological sciences. Its study sheds light on the relation between the structure and function of complex systems. Generally speaking, modules are islands of highly connected nodes separated by a relatively small number of links. Every module can have contributions of links from any node in the network. The challenge is to disentangle these contributions to understand how the modular structure is built. The main problem is that the analysis of a certain partition into modules involves, in principle, as many data as number of modules times number of nodes. To confront this challenge, here we first define the contribution matrix, the mathematical object containing all the information about the partition of interest, and after, we use a Truncated Singular Value Decomposition to extract the best representation of this matrix in a plane. The analysis of this projection allow us to scrutinize the skeleton of the modular structure, revealing the structure of individual modules and their interrelations.Comment: 21 pages, 10 figure