7,939 research outputs found
Community Detection and Growth Potential Prediction from Patent Citation Networks
The scoring of patents is useful for technology management analysis.
Therefore, a necessity of developing citation network clustering and prediction
of future citations for practical patent scoring arises. In this paper, we
propose a community detection method using the Node2vec. And in order to
analyze growth potential we compare three ''time series analysis methods'', the
Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), ARIMA model, and Hawkes Process. The results of
our experiments, we could find common technical points from those clusters by
Node2vec. Furthermore, we found that the prediction accuracy of the ARIMA model
was higher than that of other models.Comment: arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:1607.00653 by other author
The impacts of Atlantic bonito rush and the avian influenza on meat products in Turkey
The Atlantic bonito rush experienced in Turkey in the Fall of 2005 coincided with the avian influenza food scare that happened exactly at the same time-period in the country. This study examines the reactions of Turkish retail prices to those events. In this research, using time-series techniques, we investigate how the food scare and the excess fish caught jointly influence the retail prices for beef, chicken, and fish products in Turkey. Historical decomposition of beef, chicken, and fish price series explains the behavior of prices in a neighborhood of the two events. The results showed that both fish and chicken prices fell initially due to those conflicting events, but beef and fish prices increased as more of these products were substituted for chicken.Atlantic bonito
Statistical Inference for Partially Observed Markov Processes via the R Package pomp
Partially observed Markov process (POMP) models, also known as hidden Markov
models or state space models, are ubiquitous tools for time series analysis.
The R package pomp provides a very flexible framework for Monte Carlo
statistical investigations using nonlinear, non-Gaussian POMP models. A range
of modern statistical methods for POMP models have been implemented in this
framework including sequential Monte Carlo, iterated filtering, particle Markov
chain Monte Carlo, approximate Bayesian computation, maximum synthetic
likelihood estimation, nonlinear forecasting, and trajectory matching. In this
paper, we demonstrate the application of these methodologies using some simple
toy problems. We also illustrate the specification of more complex POMP models,
using a nonlinear epidemiological model with a discrete population,
seasonality, and extra-demographic stochasticity. We discuss the specification
of user-defined models and the development of additional methods within the
programming environment provided by pomp.Comment: In press at the Journal of Statistical Software. A version of this
paper is provided at the pomp package website: http://kingaa.github.io/pom
Early identification of important patents through network centrality
One of the most challenging problems in technological forecasting is to
identify as early as possible those technologies that have the potential to
lead to radical changes in our society. In this paper, we use the US patent
citation network (1926-2010) to test our ability to early identify a list of
historically significant patents through citation network analysis. We show
that in order to effectively uncover these patents shortly after they are
issued, we need to go beyond raw citation counts and take into account both the
citation network topology and temporal information. In particular, an
age-normalized measure of patent centrality, called rescaled PageRank, allows
us to identify the significant patents earlier than citation count and PageRank
score. In addition, we find that while high-impact patents tend to rely on
other high-impact patents in a similar way as scientific papers, the patents'
citation dynamics is significantly slower than that of papers, which makes the
early identification of significant patents more challenging than that of
significant papers.Comment: 14 page
The Cowl - v.49 - n.2 - Sep 25, 1985
The Cowl - student newspaper of Providence College. Vol 49 - No. 2 - September 25, 1985. 20 pages
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