Experimental investigation and modelling of the heating value and elemental composition of biomass through artificial intelligence

Abstract: Knowledge advancement in artificial intelligence and blockchain technologies provides new potential predictive reliability for biomass energy value chain. However, for the prediction approach against experimental methodology, the prediction accuracy is expected to be high in order to develop a high fidelity and robust software which can serve as a tool in the decision making process. The global standards related to classification methods and energetic properties of biomass are still evolving given different observation and results which have been reported in the literature. Apart from these, there is a need for a holistic understanding of the effect of particle sizes and geospatial factors on the physicochemical properties of biomass to increase the uptake of bioenergy. Therefore, this research carried out an experimental investigation of some selected bioresources and also develops high-fidelity models built on artificial intelligence capability to accurately classify the biomass feedstocks, predict the main elemental composition (Carbon, Hydrogen, and Oxygen) on dry basis and the Heating value in (MJ/kg) of biomass...Ph.D. (Mechanical Engineering Science

Sustainable Smart Cities and Smart Villages Research

ca. 200 words; this text will present the book in all promotional forms (e.g. flyers). Please describe the book in straightforward and consumer-friendly terms. [There is ever more research on smart cities and new interdisciplinary approaches proposed on the study of smart cities. At the same time, problems pertinent to communities inhabiting rural areas are being addressed, as part of discussions in contigious fields of research, be it environmental studies, sociology, or agriculture. Even if rural areas and countryside communities have previously been a subject of concern for robust policy frameworks, such as the European Union’s Cohesion Policy and Common Agricultural Policy Arguably, the concept of ‘the village’ has been largely absent in the debate. As a result, when advances in sophisticated information and communication technology (ICT) led to the emergence of a rich body of research on smart cities, the application and usability of ICT in the context of a village has remained underdiscussed in the literature. Against this backdrop, this volume delivers on four objectives. It delineates the conceptual boundaries of the concept of ‘smart village’. It highlights in which ways ‘smart village’ is distinct from ‘smart city’. It examines in which ways smart cities research can enrich smart villages research. It sheds light on the smart village research agenda as it unfolds in European and global contexts.

Interpretable Binary and Multiclass Prediction Models for Insolvencies and Credit Ratings

Insolvenzprognosen und Ratings sind wichtige Aufgaben der Finanzbranche und dienen der Kreditwürdigkeitsprüfung von Unternehmen. Eine Möglichkeit dieses Aufgabenfeld anzugehen, ist maschinelles Lernen. Dabei werden Vorhersagemodelle aufgrund von Beispieldaten aufgestellt. Methoden aus diesem Bereich sind aufgrund Ihrer Automatisierbarkeit vorteilhaft. Dies macht menschliche Expertise in den meisten Fällen überflüssig und bietet dadurch einen höheren Grad an Objektivität. Allerdings sind auch diese Ansätze nicht perfekt und können deshalb menschliche Expertise nicht gänzlich ersetzen. Sie bieten sich aber als Entscheidungshilfen an und können als solche von Experten genutzt werden, weshalb interpretierbare Modelle wünschenswert sind. Leider bieten nur wenige Lernalgorithmen interpretierbare Modelle. Darüber hinaus sind einige Aufgaben wie z.B. Rating häufig Mehrklassenprobleme. Mehrklassenklassifikationen werden häufig durch Meta-Algorithmen erreicht, welche mehrere binäre Algorithmen trainieren. Die meisten der üblicherweise verwendeten Meta-Algorithmen eliminieren jedoch eine gegebenenfalls vorhandene Interpretierbarkeit. In dieser Dissertation untersuchen wir die Vorhersagegenauigkeit von interpretierbaren Modellen im Vergleich zu nicht interpretierbaren Modellen für Insolvenzprognosen und Ratings. Wir verwenden disjunktive Normalformen und Entscheidungsbäume mit Schwellwerten von Finanzkennzahlen als interpretierbare Modelle. Als nicht interpretierbare Modelle werden Random Forests, künstliche Neuronale Netze und Support Vector Machines verwendet. Darüber hinaus haben wir einen eigenen Lernalgorithmus Thresholder entwickelt, welcher disjunktive Normalformen und interpretierbare Mehrklassenmodelle generiert. Für die Aufgabe der Insolvenzprognose zeigen wir, dass interpretierbare Modelle den nicht interpretierbaren Modellen nicht unterlegen sind. Dazu wird in einer ersten Fallstudie eine in der Praxis verwendete Datenbank mit Jahresabschlüssen von 5152 Unternehmen verwendet, um die Vorhersagegenauigkeit aller oben genannter Modelle zu messen. In einer zweiten Fallstudie zur Vorhersage von Ratings demonstrieren wir, dass interpretierbare Modelle den nicht interpretierbaren Modellen sogar überlegen sind. Die Vorhersagegenauigkeit aller Modelle wird anhand von drei in der Praxis verwendeten Datensätzen bestimmt, welche jeweils drei Ratingklassen aufweisen. In den Fallstudien vergleichen wir verschiedene interpretierbare Ansätze bezüglich deren Modellgrößen und der Form der Interpretierbarkeit. Wir präsentieren exemplarische Modelle, welche auf den entsprechenden Datensätzen basieren und bieten dafür Interpretationsansätze an. Unsere Ergebnisse zeigen, dass interpretierbare, schwellwertbasierte Modelle den Klassifikationsproblemen in der Finanzbranche angemessen sind. In diesem Bereich sind sie komplexeren Modellen, wie z.B. den Support Vector Machines, nicht unterlegen. Unser Algorithmus Thresholder erzeugt die kleinsten Modelle während seine Vorhersagegenauigkeit vergleichbar mit den anderen interpretierbaren Modellen bleibt. In unserer Fallstudie zu Rating liefern die interpretierbaren Modelle deutlich bessere Ergebnisse als bei der zur Insolvenzprognose (s. o.). Eine mögliche Erklärung dieser Ergebnisse bietet die Tatsache, dass Ratings im Gegensatz zu Insolvenzen menschengemacht sind. Das bedeutet, dass Ratings auf Entscheidungen von Menschen beruhen, welche in interpretierbaren Regeln, z.B. logischen Verknüpfungen von Schwellwerten, denken. Daher gehen wir davon aus, dass interpretierbare Modelle zu den Problemstellungen passen und diese interpretierbaren Regeln erkennen und abbilden

Essays in financial technology: banking efficiency and application of machine learning models in Supply Chain Finance and credit risk assessment

The financial landscape is undergoing a significant transformation, driven by technological innovations that are reshaping traditional banking practices. This thesis examines the evolving relationship between financial technology (FinTech) and banking, specifically addressing the credit risk aspects within the domains of Supply Chain Finance (SCF) and peer-to-peer (P2P) lending. FinTech has experienced rapid growth and innovation over the past decade. It encompasses a wide range of technologies and services that aim to enhance and streamline financial processes, disrupt traditional banking models, and offer new solutions to consumers and businesses. The status of FinTech and banking is assessed through an extensive review of the current literature and empirical data. Accordingly, FinTech development has significantly impacted the financial landscape, driving innovation, competition, and customer expectations while it has exposed inefficiencies within traditional banking, it has also compelled banks to evolve and embrace technological advancements. The impact of FinTech on traditional banking models, customer behaviours, and market competition is aimed to be explored. This investigation highlights the challenges and opportunities that arise as FinTech disrupts and reshapes the banking sector, emphasizing its potential to enhance efficiency, accessibility, and customer experiences. As Chapter 3 focuses on an empirical analysis of the impact of FinTech on the operating efficiency of commercial banks in China. Further, in the context of credit risk, the thesis focuses on SCF and P2P lending, two prominent areas influenced by FinTech innovation. SCF has witnessed substantial transformation with the infusion of FinTech solutions. Digital platforms have streamlined the flow of funds within complex supply networks, enhancing the liquidity of suppliers and optimizing working capital for buyers. However, this transformation introduces new credit risk challenges. As suppliers' financial data becomes more accessible, the need for accurate risk assessment and predictive modelling becomes paramount. The integration of big data analytics, machine learning, and artificial intelligence (AI) holds the promise of refining credit risk evaluation by offering real-time insights into supplier financial health, thereby improving lending decisions and reducing defaults. Similarly, P2P lending has redefined the borrowing and lending landscape, enabling direct connections between individual borrowers and lenders. While P2P lending platforms offer speed, convenience, and access to credit for previously underserved segments, they also grapple with credit risk concerns. Evaluating the creditworthiness of individual borrowers without sufficient credit history demands innovative risk assessment methodologies. The emergence of data issues, such as imbalanced data issues, feature selection, and data processing, presents challenges in building accurate credit risk profiles for P2P lending participants. FinTech solutions play a pivotal role in creating and implementing these alternative risk assessment models. Note that, few studies in the literature investigate the benchmark of the advanced method of solving the credit risk assessment in emerging financial services. This thesis aims to address this research gap by evaluating the effectiveness of credit risk assessment models in these FinTech-driven contexts, considering both traditional methodologies and novel data-driven approaches. Chapter 4 investigates the credit risk assessment issue in Digital Supply Chain Finance (DSCF) with the Machine Learning approach and Chapter 5 emphasises the issue of data imbalance of credit risk assessment in P2P Lending. By addressing these gaps and issues, this thesis aims to contribute to the broader discourse on FinTech's role in shaping the future of banking. The findings have implications for financial institutions, policymakers, and regulators seeking to harness the benefits of FinTech while mitigating associated risks. Ultimately, this study offers insights into navigating the evolving landscape of credit risk in SCF and P2P lending within the context of an increasingly technology-driven financial ecosystem

The need for disruption in the credit ratings landscape : a model for machine learning computed credit ratings.

I present the results from the research on the topics of (1) credit ratings, which are usually provided by credit rating agencies, and (2) Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning as a form of solving classification tasks, such as credit ratings, without the involvement of human experts. My research problem is stated as follows: to improve the solutions for the credit rating problem introduced by other credit rating agencies, I propose a rating system in the form of an expert system. Then I show that this system is more efficient than traditional rating systems on different hold-out samples of large-scale, multi-period data for public nonfinancial corporate entities worldwide, and with respect to different forecasting horizons. I show that my rating system, which is based on an ensemble machine learning method, specifically Gradient Boosted Decision Trees, when applied to the rating process, outperforms incumbent rating systems on the accuracy-stability scale measured by a compound metric Index of the Quality of Ratings, which I develop and introduce. In the course of the research in addition to the topic of rating performance evaluation, I have included the comparison of market-implied ratings with fundamental ratings, ratings forecasting and replication, mapping of ratings of different providers to the universal scale, financial effects of qualitative ratings for the investors, the stability of ratings, and the cyclical effects of ratings. The novelty is in the amount of data that I used, including the number and diversification of the rated entities, also in the number of other rating providers involved in performance comparison tests and the number of optional models built and tested. I have shown performance results for different forecasting horizons. The complexity of the proposed model, its iterative revisions throughout the estimation periods, as well as mapping of ratings directly through the default ratios, also mark out my research. The significance of the research is in showing a more reliable, hi-tech, cost- and timeeffective solution for the problem of credit risk assessment for financial markets participants, who now rely upon the opinion of credit rating agencies. The key output of the research is therefore to re-imagine the credit ratings according to modern advances in finance, datascience, information technology and software. The results of my analysis can be used as a starting point or proxy for choosing the optimal rating agency for investor’s needs, as a stepby- step manual to develop a rating system, as a benchmark for the regulation of rating agencies, or when discussing the quality of ratings in academic and financial papers

4th. International Conference on Advanced Research Methods and Analytics (CARMA 2022)

Research methods in economics and social sciences are evolving with the increasing availability of Internet and Big Data sources of information. As these sources, methods, and applications become more interdisciplinary, the 4th International Conference on Advanced Research Methods and Analytics (CARMA) is a forum for researchers and practitioners to exchange ideas and advances on how emerging research methods and sources are applied to different fields of social sciences as well as to discuss current and future challenges. Due to the covid pandemic, CARMA 2022 is planned as a virtual and face-to-face conference, simultaneouslyDoménech I De Soria, J.; Vicente Cuervo, MR. (2022). 4th. International Conference on Advanced Research Methods and Analytics (CARMA 2022). Editorial Universitat Politècnica de València. https://doi.org/10.4995/CARMA2022.2022.1595

Can bank interaction during rating measurement of micro and very small enterprises ipso facto Determine the collapse of PD status?

This paper begins with an analysis of trends - over the period 2012-2018 - for total bank loans, non-performing loans, and the number of active, working enterprises. A review survey was done on national data from Italy with a comparison developed on a local subset from the Sardinia Region. Empirical evidence appears to support the hypothesis of the paper: can the rating class assigned by banks - using current IRB and A-IRB systems - to micro and very small enterprises, whose ability to replace financial resources using endogenous means is structurally impaired, ipso facto orient the results of performance in the same terms of PD assigned by the algorithm, thereby upending the principle of cause and effect? The thesis is developed through mathematical modeling that demonstrates the interaction of the measurement tool (the rating algorithm applied by banks) on the collapse of the loan status (default, performing, or some intermediate point) of the assessed micro-entity. Emphasis is given, in conclusion, to the phenomenon using evidence of the intrinsically mutualistic link of the two populations of banks and (micro) enterprises provided by a system of differential equation

SIS 2017. Statistics and Data Science: new challenges, new generations

The 2017 SIS Conference aims to highlight the crucial role of the Statistics in Data Science. In this new domain of ‘meaning’ extracted from the data, the increasing amount of produced and available data in databases, nowadays, has brought new challenges. That involves different fields of statistics, machine learning, information and computer science, optimization, pattern recognition. These afford together a considerable contribute in the analysis of ‘Big data’, open data, relational and complex data, structured and no-structured. The interest is to collect the contributes which provide from the different domains of Statistics, in the high dimensional data quality validation, sampling extraction, dimensional reduction, pattern selection, data modelling, testing hypotheses and confirming conclusions drawn from the data