Population Synthesis via k-Nearest Neighbor Crossover Kernel

The recent development of multi-agent simulations brings about a need for population synthesis. It is a task of reconstructing the entire population from a sampling survey of limited size (1% or so), supplying the initial conditions from which simulations begin. This paper presents a new kernel density estimator for this task. Our method is an analogue of the classical Breiman-Meisel-Purcell estimator, but employs novel techniques that harness the huge degree of freedom which is required to model high-dimensional nonlinearly correlated datasets: the crossover kernel, the k-nearest neighbor restriction of the kernel construction set and the bagging of kernels. The performance as a statistical estimator is examined through real and synthetic datasets. We provide an "optimization-free" parameter selection rule for our method, a theory of how our method works and a computational cost analysis. To demonstrate the usefulness as a population synthesizer, our method is applied to a household synthesis task for an urban micro-simulator.Comment: 10 pages, 4 figures, IEEE International Conference on Data Mining (ICDM) 201

Efficient Non-parametric Bayesian Hawkes Processes

In this paper, we develop an efficient nonparametric Bayesian estimation of the kernel function of Hawkes processes. The non-parametric Bayesian approach is important because it provides flexible Hawkes kernels and quantifies their uncertainty. Our method is based on the cluster representation of Hawkes processes. Utilizing the stationarity of the Hawkes process, we efficiently sample random branching structures and thus, we split the Hawkes process into clusters of Poisson processes. We derive two algorithms -- a block Gibbs sampler and a maximum a posteriori estimator based on expectation maximization -- and we show that our methods have a linear time complexity, both theoretically and empirically. On synthetic data, we show our methods to be able to infer flexible Hawkes triggering kernels. On two large-scale Twitter diffusion datasets, we show that our methods outperform the current state-of-the-art in goodness-of-fit and that the time complexity is linear in the size of the dataset. We also observe that on diffusions related to online videos, the learned kernels reflect the perceived longevity for different content types such as music or pets videos

Autoregressive Kernels For Time Series

We propose in this work a new family of kernels for variable-length time series. Our work builds upon the vector autoregressive (VAR) model for multivariate stochastic processes: given a multivariate time series x, we consider the likelihood function p_{\theta}(x) of different parameters \theta in the VAR model as features to describe x. To compare two time series x and x', we form the product of their features p_{\theta}(x) p_{\theta}(x') which is integrated out w.r.t \theta using a matrix normal-inverse Wishart prior. Among other properties, this kernel can be easily computed when the dimension d of the time series is much larger than the lengths of the considered time series x and x'. It can also be generalized to time series taking values in arbitrary state spaces, as long as the state space itself is endowed with a kernel \kappa. In that case, the kernel between x and x' is a a function of the Gram matrices produced by \kappa on observations and subsequences of observations enumerated in x and x'. We describe a computationally efficient implementation of this generalization that uses low-rank matrix factorization techniques. These kernels are compared to other known kernels using a set of benchmark classification tasks carried out with support vector machines

Approximate inference of the bandwidth in multivariate kernel density estimation

Kernel density estimation is a popular and widely used non-parametric method for data-driven density estimation. Its appeal lies in its simplicity and ease of implementation, as well as its strong asymptotic results regarding its convergence to the true data distribution. However, a major difficulty is the setting of the bandwidth, particularly in high dimensions and with limited amount of data. An approximate Bayesian method is proposed, based on the Expectation–Propagation algorithm with a likelihood obtained from a leave-one-out cross validation approach. The proposed method yields an iterative procedure to approximate the posterior distribution of the inverse bandwidth. The approximate posterior can be used to estimate the model evidence for selecting the structure of the bandwidth and approach online learning. Extensive experimental validation shows that the proposed method is competitive in terms of performance with state-of-the-art plug-in methods