Closed-Form Bayesian Inferences for the Logit Model via Polynomial Expansions

Articles in Marketing and choice literatures have demonstrated the need for incorporating person-level heterogeneity into behavioral models (e.g., logit models for multiple binary outcomes as studied here). However, the logit likelihood extended with a population distribution of heterogeneity doesn't yield closed-form inferences, and therefore numerical integration techniques are relied upon (e.g., MCMC methods). We present here an alternative, closed-form Bayesian inferences for the logit model, which we obtain by approximating the logit likelihood via a polynomial expansion, and then positing a distribution of heterogeneity from a flexible family that is now conjugate and integrable. For problems where the response coefficients are independent, choosing the Gamma distribution leads to rapidly convergent closed-form expansions; if there are correlations among the coefficients one can still obtain rapidly convergent closed-form expansions by positing a distribution of heterogeneity from a Multivariate Gamma distribution. The solution then comes from the moment generating function of the Multivariate Gamma distribution or in general from the multivariate heterogeneity distribution assumed. Closed-form Bayesian inferences, derivatives (useful for elasticity calculations), population distribution parameter estimates (useful for summarization) and starting values (useful for complicated algorithms) are hence directly available. Two simulation studies demonstrate the efficacy of our approach.Comment: 30 pages, 2 figures, corrected some typos. Appears in Quantitative Marketing and Economics vol 4 (2006), no. 2, 173--20

A multivariate gamma distribution applied to compositional data analysis

Parametric compositional data analysis in a high dimensional simplex can be performed by employing the Dirichlet distribution, or alternatively, through the logistic normal distribution if the Dirichlet is not appropriate. In this paper, a multivariate gamma (MGAM) distribution is proposed as an alternative distribution for compositional data. In addition, the MGAM distribution is extended to a multivariate extreme value (MEV) distribution and goodness of fit statistics are calculated for comparison against the logistic normal distribution. An application is considered where the amount of gas produced from a coal gasication facility depends crucially on the size distribution of the coal, which is measured as compositional data and characterised by six variables. The observed sample space is divided into three regions of high (H), standard (S) and low (L) gas production by choosing appropriate thresholds, and new observations are classified among the regions

Miscellaneous results related to the Gaussian product inequality conjecture for the joint distribution of traces of Wishart matrices

This note reports partial results related to the Gaussian product inequality (GPI) conjecture for the joint distribution of traces of Wishart matrices. In particular, several GPI-related results from Wei (2014) and Liu et al. (2015) are extended in two ways: by replacing the power functions with more general classes of functions, and by replacing the usual Gaussian and multivariate gamma distributional assumptions by the more general trace-Wishart distribution assumption. These findings suggest that a Kronecker product form of the GPI holds for diagonal blocks of any Wishart distribution.Comment: 10 pages, 0 figure

Bayesian Boundary Trend Filtering

Estimating boundary curves has many applications such as economics, climate science, and medicine. Bayesian trend filtering has been developed as one of locally adaptive smoothing methods to estimate the non-stationary trend of data. This paper develops a Bayesian trend filtering for estimating the boundary trend. To this end, the truncated multivariate normal working likelihood and global-local shrinkage priors based on the scale mixtures of normal distribution are introduced. In particular, well-known horseshoe prior for difference leads to locally adaptive shrinkage estimation for boundary trend. However, the full conditional distributions of the Gibbs sampler involve high-dimensional truncated multivariate normal distribution. To overcome the difficulty of sampling, an approximation of truncated multivariate normal distribution is employed. Using the approximation, the proposed models lead to an efficient Gibbs sampling algorithm via the P\'olya-Gamma data augmentation. The proposed method is also extended by considering a nearly isotonic constraint. The performance of the proposed method is illustrated through some numerical experiments and real data examples.Comment: 25 pages, 6 figure

Aggregation of Dependent Risks with Specific Marginals by the Family of Koehler-Symanowski Distributions

Many problems in Finance, such as risk management, optimal asset allocation, and derivative pricing, require an understanding of the volatility and correlations of assets returns. In these cases, it may be necessary to represent empirical data with a parametric distribution. In the literature, many distributions can be found to represent univariate data, but few can be extended to multivariate populations. The most widely used multivariate distribution in the aggregation of dependent risks in a portfolio is the Normal distribution, which has the drawbacks of inflexibility and frequent inappropriateness. Here, we consider modelling assets and measuring portfolio risks using the family of Koehler-Symanowski multivariate distributions with specific marginals, as, for example, the generalized lambda distribution. This family of distributions can be defined using the cdf along with interaction terms in the independence case. This family can be derived using a particular transformation of exponential random variables and an independent gamma. This distribution has the advantage of allowing models with complex dependence structures, as we demonstrate with Monte Carlo simulations and the analysis of the risk of a portfolioRisk Management, Monte Carlo Method, Generalized Lambda Distribution, Koehler-Symanowski Distribution

Simplified Pair Copula Constructions --- Limits and Extensions

So called pair copula constructions (PCCs), specifying multivariate distributions only in terms of bivariate building blocks (pair copulas), constitute a flexible class of dependence models. To keep them tractable for inference and model selection, the simplifying assumption that copulas of conditional distributions do not depend on the values of the variables which they are conditioned on is popular. In this paper, we show for which classes of distributions such a simplification is applicable, significantly extending the discussion of Hob{\ae}k Haff et al. (2010). In particular, we show that the only Archimedean copula in dimension d \geq 4 which is of the simplified type is that based on the gamma Laplace transform or its extension, while the Student-t copula is the only one arising from a scale mixture of Normals. Further, we illustrate how PCCs can be adapted for situations where conditional copulas depend on values which are conditioned on