Micro Traffic Simulation with Unpredictable Disturbance Based on Monte Carlo Simulation: Effectiveness of the proposed agent cars for minimizing evacuation time in the case of Sidoarjo hot mudflow disaster

Monte Carlo simulation of micro traffic with unpredictable disturbance is conducted for the realistic situation of evacuation from Sidoarjo hot mudflow disaster. We concern to the main artery road very close to high dike for prevention of spillover the hot mudflow. This road is major traffic connection with surrounding districts and disaster areas and has a heavy traffic. The mud volcano remains with a high flow rates. The important matter when the mud containment walls broken and the mud flows on the road is how does the vehicle can be evacuated from the disaster occurred areas through suffered roads. This study presents evacuation simulation of vehicles in surrounding affected road using an agent-based model. We estimated the time required for evacuation and the number of victim toward the traffic condition (probability of vehicle density) and the driving behavior (probability of lane changing). Both of them are evaluated and compared between with/without agent cars