A methodology for the selection of new technologies in the aviation industry

The purpose of this report is to present a technology selection methodology to quantify both tangible and intangible benefits of certain technology alternatives within a fuzzy environment. Specifically, it describes an application of the theory of fuzzy sets to hierarchical structural analysis and economic evaluations for utilisation in the industry. The report proposes a complete methodology to accurately select new technologies. A computer based prototype model has been developed to handle the more complex fuzzy calculations. Decision-makers are only required to express their opinions on comparative importance of various factors in linguistic terms rather than exact numerical values. These linguistic variable scales, such as ‘very high’, ‘high’, ‘medium’, ‘low’ and ‘very low’, are then converted into fuzzy numbers, since it becomes more meaningful to quantify a subjective measurement into a range rather than in an exact value. By aggregating the hierarchy, the preferential weight of each alternative technology is found, which is called fuzzy appropriate index. The fuzzy appropriate indices of different technologies are then ranked and preferential ranking orders of technologies are found. From the economic evaluation perspective, a fuzzy cash flow analysis is employed. This deals quantitatively with imprecision or uncertainties, as the cash flows are modelled as triangular fuzzy numbers which represent ‘the most likely possible value’, ‘the most pessimistic value’ and ‘the most optimistic value’. By using this methodology, the ambiguities involved in the assessment data can be effectively represented and processed to assure a more convincing and effective decision- making process when selecting new technologies in which to invest. The prototype model was validated with a case study within the aviation industry that ensured it was properly configured to meet the

Intelligent systems in manufacturing: current developments and future prospects

Global competition and rapidly changing customer requirements are demanding increasing changes in manufacturing environments. Enterprises are required to constantly redesign their products and continuously reconfigure their manufacturing systems. Traditional approaches to manufacturing systems do not fully satisfy this new situation. Many authors have proposed that artificial intelligence will bring the flexibility and efficiency needed by manufacturing systems. This paper is a review of artificial intelligence techniques used in manufacturing systems. The paper first defines the components of a simplified intelligent manufacturing systems (IMS), the different Artificial Intelligence (AI) techniques to be considered and then shows how these AI techniques are used for the components of IMS

Combining case based reasoning with neural networks

This paper presents a neural network based technique for mapping problem situations to problem solutions for Case-Based Reasoning (CBR) applications. Both neural networks and CBR are instance-based learning techniques, although neural nets work with numerical data and CBR systems work with symbolic data. This paper discusses how the application scope of both paradigms could be enhanced by the use of hybrid concepts. To make the use of neural networks possible, the problem's situation and solution features are transformed into continuous features, using techniques similar to CBR's definition of similarity metrics. Radial Basis Function (RBF) neural nets are used to create a multivariable, continuous input-output mapping. As the mapping is continuous, this technique also provides generalisation between cases, replacing the domain specific solution adaptation techniques required by conventional CBR. This continuous representation also allows, as in fuzzy logic, an associated membership measure to be output with each symbolic feature, aiding the prioritisation of various possible solutions. A further advantage is that, as the RBF neurons are only active in a limited area of the input space, the solution can be accompanied by local estimates of accuracy, based on the sufficiency of the cases present in that area as well as the results measured during testing. We describe how the application of this technique could be of benefit to the real world problem of sales advisory systems, among others

Combining case based reasoning with neural networks

This paper presents a neural network based technique for mapping problem situations to problem solutions for Case-Based Reasoning (CBR) applications. Both neural networks and CBR are instance-based learning techniques, although neural nets work with numerical data and CBR systems work with symbolic data. This paper discusses how the application scope of both paradigms could be enhanced by the use of hybrid concepts. To make the use of neural networks possible, the problem's situation and solution features are transformed into continuous features, using techniques similar to CBR's definition of similarity metrics. Radial Basis Function (RBF) neural nets are used to create a multivariable, continuous input-output mapping. As the mapping is continuous, this technique also provides generalisation between cases, replacing the domain specific solution adaptation techniques required by conventional CBR. This continuous representation also allows, as in fuzzy logic, an associated membership measure to be output with each symbolic feature, aiding the prioritisation of various possible solutions. A further advantage is that, as the RBF neurons are only active in a limited area of the input space, the solution can be accompanied by local estimates of accuracy, based on the sufficiency of the cases present in that area as well as the results measured during testing. We describe how the application of this technique could be of benefit to the real world problem of sales advisory systems, among others

The price of risk in construction projects: contingency approximation model (CAM)

Little attention has been focussed on a precise definition and evaluation mechanism for project management risk specifically related to contractors. When bidding, contractors traditionally price risks using unsystematic approaches. The high business failure rate our industry records may indicate that the current unsystematic mechanisms contractors use for building up contingencies may be inadequate. The reluctance of some contractors to include a price for risk in their tenders when bidding for work competitively may also not be a useful approach. Here, instead, we first define the meaning of contractor contingency, and then we develop a facile quantitative technique that contractors can use to estimate a price for project risk. This model will help contractors analyse their exposure to project risks; and help them express the risk in monetary terms for management action. When bidding for work, they can decide how to allocate contingencies strategically in a way that balances risk and reward

A Generic Synthesis Algorithm for Well-Defined Parametric Design

This paper aims to improve the way synthesis tools can be built by formalizing: 1) the design artefact, 2) related knowledge and 3) an algorithm to generate solutions. This paper focuses on well-defined parametric engineering design, ranging from machine elements to industrial products. A design artefact is formalized in terms of parameters and topology elements. The knowledge is classified in three types: resolving rules to determine parameter values, constraining rules to restrict parameter values and expansion rules to add elements to the topology. A synthesis algorithm, based on an opportunistic design strategy, is described and tested for three design cases

Comparison of different strategies of utilizing fuzzy clustering in structure identification

Fuzzy systems approximate highly nonlinear systems by means of fuzzy "if-then" rules. In the literature, various algorithms are proposed for mining. These algorithms commonly utilize fuzzy clustering in structure identification. Basically, there are three different approaches in which one can utilize fuzzy clustering; the �first one is based on input space clustering, the second one considers clustering realized in the output space, while the third one is concerned with clustering realized in the combined input-output space. In this study, we analyze these three approaches. We discuss each of the algorithms in great detail and o¤er a thorough comparative analysis. Finally, we compare the performances of these algorithms in a medical diagnosis classi�cation problem, namely Aachen Aphasia Test. The experiment and the results provide a valuable insight about the merits and the shortcomings of these three clustering approaches

Operational Risk Management using a Fuzzy Logic Inference System

Operational Risk (OR) results from endogenous and exogenous risk factors, as diverse and complex to assess as human resources and technology, which may not be properly measured using traditional quantitative approaches. Engineering has faced the same challenges when designing practical solutions to complex multifactor and non-linear systems where human reasoning, expert knowledge or imprecise information are valuable inputs. One of the solutions provided by engineering is a Fuzzy Logic Inference System (FLIS). Despite the goal of the FLIS model for OR is its assessment, it is not an end in itself. The choice of a FLIS results in a convenient and sound use of qualitative and quantitative inputs, capable of effectively articulating risk management's identification, assessment, monitoring and mitigation stages. Different from traditional approaches, the proposed model allows evaluating mitigation efforts ex-ante, thus avoiding concealed OR sources from system complexity build-up and optimizing risk management resources. Furthermore, because the model contrasts effective with expected OR data, it is able to constantly validate its outcome, recognize environment shifts and issue warning signals.Operational Risk, Fuzzy Logic, Risk Management Classification JEL:G32, C63, D80

Enhance maintenance problem recognition techniques and its application to palm oil mills

This paper discusses the application of enhanced maintenance problem recognition techniques. The main contribution of this study is the proposed combined techniques, namely snapshot model, failure mode, effect and criticality analysis (FMECA), Pareto analysis, and decision analysis by using information technology (IT). The snapshot model is part of the maintenance modelling technique while FMECA, Pareto analysis, and decision analysis are part of maintenance reliability techniques. Each of the techniques and the proposed combined techniques is explained. The case study used for this enhanced technique was the palm oil mills maintenance problem. The result and possible further enhancement is also discussed