Simulating the diffusion of technological innovation with an integrated hybrid agent-based system dynamics model

The potential of hybrid models to enhance simulations of the real world is explored. While the scope for design of such models is large, the focus here brings together agent-based (AB) and system dynamics (SD) modelling within a defined architectural framework. Comprising a number of modules, each of which is implemented in a single modelling paradigm, the design of hybrid models looks to exploit the potential from a range of approaches and tools. Coded within a single programming environment, the international diffusion of technological innovation is used as a case study to highlight hybrid simulation model design and implementation. An integrated hybrid simulation design that incorporates feedback between modules in a continuous, fluid, process is employed to develop a model comprising two SD modules and one AB module. The predictions from the hybrid model are compared to known outcomes regarding the national adoption of mobile telephony, fixed internet and fixed broadband. We conclude with some thoughts on the design of hybrid simulation models

Designing Scalable Business Models

Digital business models are often designed for rapid growth, and some relatively young companies have indeed achieved global scale. However despite the visibility and importance of this phenomenon, analysis of scale and scalability remains underdeveloped in management literature. When it is addressed, analysis of this phenomenon is often over-influenced by arguments about economies of scale in production and distribution. To redress this omission, this paper draws on economic, organization and technology management literature to provide a detailed examination of the sources of scaling in digital businesses. We propose three mechanisms by which digital business models attempt to gain scale: engaging both non- paying users and paying customers; organizing customer engagement to allow self- customization; and orchestrating networked value chains, such as platforms or multi-sided business models. Scaling conditions are discussed, and propositions developed and illustrated with examples of big data entrepreneurial firms

Mutual-Excitation of Cryptocurrency Market Returns and Social Media Topics

Cryptocurrencies have recently experienced a new wave of price volatility and interest; activity within social media communities relating to cryptocurrencies has increased significantly. There is currently limited documented knowledge of factors which could indicate future price movements. This paper aims to decipher relationships between cryptocurrency price changes and topic discussion on social media to provide, among other things, an understanding of which topics are indicative of future price movements. To achieve this a well-known dynamic topic modelling approach is applied to social media communication to retrieve information about the temporal occurrence of various topics. A Hawkes model is then applied to find interactions between topics and cryptocurrency prices. The results show particular topics tend to precede certain types of price movements, for example the discussion of 'risk and investment vs trading' being indicative of price falls, the discussion of 'substantial price movements' being indicative of volatility, and the discussion of 'fundamental cryptocurrency value' by technical communities being indicative of price rises. The knowledge of topic relationships gained here could be built into a real-time system, providing trading or alerting signals.Comment: 3rd International Conference on Knowledge Engineering and Applications (ICKEA 2018) - Moscow, Russia (June 25-27 2018

Marketing competition on a new product introduction - a structural analysis using systems thinking

Launching a new product on the market is a strategic activity that needs specific investments and a specific organisation. There are multiple factors that determine the success of a new product on the market but their direct effects are not often very well observable (marketing for example). With this study, we analysed the systemic structure underlying the dynamics related to the introduction of a new product on the market. In particular, we built a qualitative model based on the systems thinking methodology of causal-loop diagrams (CLDs), starting from the main structure and assumptions of the well-known Bass model. The model provides a systemic perspective on the interdependencies among various aspects that interact in important organisational areas. The presented causal-loop diagram tries to describe the systems structure which is intrinsic to the introduction and diffusion of a new product on the market, and how ultimately the related dynamics could be manage

A systematic review of the energy and climate impacts of teleworking

Information and communication technologies (ICTs) increasingly enable employees to work from home and other locations (‘teleworking’). This study explores the extent to which teleworking reduces the need to travel to work and the consequent impacts on economy-wide energy consumption. Methods/Design: The paper provides a systematic review of the current state of knowledge of the energy impacts of teleworking. This includes the energy savings from reduced commuter travel and the indirect impacts on energy consumption associated with changes in non-work travel and home energy consumption. The aim is to identify the conditions under which teleworking leads to a net reduction in economy-wide energy consumption, and the circumstances where benefits may be outweighed by unintended impacts. The paper synthesises the results of 39 empirical studies, identified through a comprehensive search of 9,000 published articles. Review results/Synthesis: Twenty six of the 39 studies suggest that teleworking reduces energy use, and only eight studies suggest that teleworking increases, or has a neutral impact on energy use. However, differences in the methodology, scope and assumptions of the different studies make it difficult to estimate ‘average’ energy savings. The main source of savings is the reduced distance travelled for commuting, potentially with an additional contribution from lower office energy consumption. However, the more rigorous studies that include a wider range of impacts (e.g. non-work travel or home energy use) generally find smaller savings. Discussion: Despite the generally positive verdict on teleworking as an energy-saving practice, there are numerous uncertainties and ambiguities about its actual or potential benefits. These relate to the extent to which teleworking may lead to unpredictable increases in non-work travel and home energy use that may outweigh the gains from reduced work travel. The available evidence suggests that economy-wide energy savings are typically modest, and in many circumstances could be negative or non-existent

Happy e-Inclusion? The Case of Romania

This paper investigates the determinants of adoption of ICT technology by households in Romania, using a probit model based on a time-series cross-section dataset. A particular attention is given to a few psycho-social factors in addition to the recognised role of usual socio-economic determinants, such as income, age, employment status, educational level or gender. The particular findings are that, together with an expected impact of the occupational status and of the educational level, the perceived wellbeing of individuals is one of the most important factors influencing the decision to acquire and use a PC at home. Gender does not seem to have the same importance as in other regions of the world and shows an opposite sign than elsewhere, whereas income influences the decision, but with a weaker effect.information and communications technology; e-inclusion; Probit model; Romania; determinants of PC use