Virtual series-system models of imperfect repair

Novel models of imperfect repair are fitted to classic reliability datasets. The models suppose that a virtual system comprises a component and a remainder in series. On failure of the component, the component is renewed, and on failure of the remainder, the component is renewed and the remainder is minimally repaired. It follows that the repair process is a counting process that is the superposition of a renewal process and a Poisson process. The repair effect, that is, the extent to the system is repaired by renewal of the component, depends on the relative intensities of the superposed processes. The repair effect may be negative, when the intensity of the part that is a renewal process is a decreasing function. Other special cases of the model exist (renewal process, Poisson process, superposed renewal process and homogeneous Poisson process). Model fit is important because the nature of the model and corresponding parameter values determine the effectiveness of maintenance, which we also consider. A cost-minimizing repair policy may be determined provided the cost of preventive-repair is less than the cost of corrective-repair and the repairable part is ageing. If the remainder is ageing, then policy needs to be adapted as it ages

On the Statistical Modeling and Analysis of Repairable Systems

We review basic modeling approaches for failure and maintenance data from repairable systems. In particular we consider imperfect repair models, defined in terms of virtual age processes, and the trend-renewal process which extends the nonhomogeneous Poisson process and the renewal process. In the case where several systems of the same kind are observed, we show how observed covariates and unobserved heterogeneity can be included in the models. We also consider various approaches to trend testing. Modern reliability data bases usually contain information on the type of failure, the type of maintenance and so forth in addition to the failure times themselves. Basing our work on recent literature we present a framework where the observed events are modeled as marked point processes, with marks labeling the types of events. Throughout the paper the emphasis is more on modeling than on statistical inference.Comment: Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/088342306000000448 in the Statistical Science (http://www.imstat.org/sts/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Superimposed Renewal Processes in Reliability

This paper reviews the existing literature on the superimposed renewal process, with its foci on probabilistic and statistical properties, statistical inference, and applications in reliability analysis and maintenance policy optimisation. It then proposes future research topics

Two methods to approximate the superposition of imperfect failure processes

Suppose a series system is composed of a number of repairable components. If a component fails, it is repaired immediately and the effectiveness of the repair may be imperfect. Then the failure process of the component can be modelled by an imperfect failure process and the failure process of the system is the superposition of the failure processes of all components. In the literature, there is a bulk of research on the superimposed renewal process (SRP) for the case where the repair on each component is assumed perfect. For the case that the component causing the system to fail is unknown and that repair on a failed component is imperfect, however, there is little research on modelling the failure process of the system. Typically, the likelihood functions for the superposition of imperfect failure processes cannot be given explicitly. Approximation-based models have to be sought. This paper proposes two methods to model the failure process of a series system in which the failure process of each component is assumed an arithmetic reduction of intensity and an arithmetic reduction of age model, respectively. The likelihood method of parameter estimation is given. Numerical examples and real-world data are used to illustrate the applicability of the proposed models

Some contributions to maintenance and accelerated degradation test under complex failure process

Ph.DDOCTOR OF PHILOSOPH

Reliability Modelling For Asset Management in South East Water

Over the years, the reliability modelling of water assets has generated increasing interest among both researchers and practitioners. Statistical methods and software packages for assessing asset reliability have been developed in order to improve asset availability, indirectly reduce water losses, and hence improve the efficiency of water assets. OFWAT, which is the economic regulator of the water sector in England and Wales, aims to ensure that water companies operate under their statutory functions and have sufficient financial means to perform these functions adequately. Water companies need to prepare a five-year business plan for OFWAT, in order to certify they have enough capital and are transparent when carrying out their statutory functions. Hence, this thesis aims to analyse the reliability of two selected types of assets at South East Water to help plan their future investments on vehicles and future maintenance costs on borehole assets. This thesis will provide an extensive literature review on reliability modelling in water distribution networks. An MS Excel-based decision support system will be developed for both vehicles and borehole assets, using data collected from South East Water. For the transport model, a block replacement policy will be developed by using Visual Basic, to obtain the optimum time of replacing a vehicle. Performance analysis will be conducted on the borehole data to pinpoint the worst performers among the 16 boreholes under analysis

Reliability Evaluation of Common-Cause Failures and Other Interdependencies in Large Reconfigurable Networks

This work covers the impact of Interdependencies and CCFs in large repairable networks with possibility of "re-configuration" after a fault and the consequent disconnection of the faulted equipment. Typical networks with these characteristics are the Utilities, e.g. Power Transmission and Distribution Systems, Telecommunication Systems, Gas and Water Utilities, Wi Fi networks. The main issues of the research are: (a) Identification of the specific interdependencies and CCFs in large repairable networks, and (b)Evaluation of their impact on the reliability parameters (load nodes availability, etc.). The research has identified (1) the system and equipment failure modes that are relevant to interdependencies and CCF, and their subsequent effects, and (2) The hidden interdependencies and CCFs relevant to control, supervision and protection systems, and to the automatic change-over systems, that have no impact in normal operation, but that can cause relevant out-of-service when the above automatic systems are called to operate under and after fault conditions. Additionally methods were introduced to include interdependencies and CCFs in the reliability and availability models. The results of the research include a new generalized approach to model the repairable networks for reliability analysis, including Interdependencies/CCFs as a main contributor. The method covers Generalized models for Nodes, Branches and Load nodes; Interdependencies and CCFs on Networks / Components; System Interdependencies/CCFs; Functional Interdependencies/CCFs; Simultaneous and non-simultaneous Interdependencies/CCFs. As an example detailed Interdependency/CCFs analysis and generalized model of an important network structure (a "RING" with load nodes) has been analyzed in detail

Time-dependent reliability analysis of flood defences

The aim of this thesis is to investigate how the time-dependent behaviour of flood defence properties can be appropriately characterised and incorporated in a reliabilitybased approach. Such an approach is required in a maintenance optimisation framework for flood defence management. The first objective shows that existing structural reliability methods are suitable for the analysis and incorporation of asset time-dependent processes in flood defence (system) reliability. Recent progress on quantitative maintenance optimisation frameworks for flood defence management is drawn together and complemented by theory from other engineering disciplines. The second objective develops three importance measure types to indicate the relevance of the time-dependent processes in the context of a rational maintenance optimisation approach. These importance measures support practical operational management as well as maintenance optimisation model design. The third objective develops a modelling methodology to describe asset time-dependent processes of flood defences by a statistical model. The first phase in the modelling methodology is problem formulation. The second conceptualisation phase is a five-step analysis of the asset time-dependent process. Firstly, existing field observations and scientific understanding are assembled. Secondly, the excitation, ancillary and affected features and uncertainty types of the asset time-dependent process are analysed. The third step describes the character of the process conditional on the excitation. The fourth step analyses the dependencies between different asset time-dependent processes. The fifth step formulates alternative statistical models for the asset time-dependent process. The last phase in the modelling methodology is parameter estimation, calibration and model corroboration. Historical observations on asset time-dependent processes are scarce and can either be used for further extension of this phase or Bayesian posterior updating. The fourth objective demonstrates the methods developed in this thesis in a (system) reliability model of the Dartford Creek to Swanscombe Marshes flood defence system along the Thames Estuary.EThOS - Electronic Theses Online ServiceThames Estuary 2100 Project TeamGBUnited Kingdo

Integration and coordination in after-sales service logistics

Maintenance and after-sales service logistics are important disciplines that have received considerable attention both in practice and in the scientific literature. This attention is related to the often high investments and revenues associated with capital-intensive assets in technically advanced business environments. Different maintenance services such as inspections and preventive maintenance activities are executed with the goal to maximize the availability of these expensive assets. However, unavoidable failures may still happen, which means that, in addition to preventive maintenance and services, repair actions (corrective maintenance) are necessary. Spare parts, service engineers and tools are typically the main resources for executing the repair actions and their availability has a major impact on overall system downtime. In this dissertation, we analyze a multi-resource after-sales service supply chain consisting of a service provider and an emergency supplier. The service provider is contractually responsible for the timely repair of some randomly failing capital intensive assets. To execute a repair, the service provider needs both service engineers and spare parts to replace the malfunctioning parts. In case of spare parts stock out, the service provider can either wait for the regular replenishment of parts or decide to hand over the entire repair call to an emergency supplier. For the latter case, a contract between the service provider and the emergency supplier is necessary to specify the compensation. In the first part of this dissertation, we focus on the optimal integrated planning of spare parts and engineers, considering an asset availability constraint. We evaluate the system performance using Markov chain analysis and queueing models, and employ different optimization algorithms to jointly determine the optimal capacity of the resources. This integrated planning results in considerable cost savings compared to the separate planning of spare parts and engineers. In the second part, we investigate the best contract the supplier can offer to the service provider. Furthermore, we propose different coordinated contracts to achieve optimal revenues for both partners in this after-sales service supply chain, under both full and asymmetric information scenarios. Cooperative games, the dominance of one party over the other (Stackelberg game), and information sharing aspects are the tools included in the second part of this dissertation