A Deep Spatio-Temporal Fuzzy Neural Network for Passenger Demand Prediction

In spite of its importance, passenger demand prediction is a highly challenging problem, because the demand is simultaneously influenced by the complex interactions among many spatial and temporal factors and other external factors such as weather. To address this problem, we propose a Spatio-TEmporal Fuzzy neural Network (STEF-Net) to accurately predict passenger demands incorporating the complex interactions of all known important factors. We design an end-to-end learning framework with different neural networks modeling different factors. Specifically, we propose to capture spatio-temporal feature interactions via a convolutional long short-term memory network and model external factors via a fuzzy neural network that handles data uncertainty significantly better than deterministic methods. To keep the temporal relations when fusing two networks and emphasize discriminative spatio-temporal feature interactions, we employ a novel feature fusion method with a convolution operation and an attention layer. As far as we know, our work is the first to fuse a deep recurrent neural network and a fuzzy neural network to model complex spatial-temporal feature interactions with additional uncertain input features for predictive learning. Experiments on a large-scale real-world dataset show that our model achieves more than 10% improvement over the state-of-the-art approaches.Comment: https://epubs.siam.org/doi/abs/10.1137/1.9781611975673.1

Laparoscopy Pneumoperitoneum Fuzzy Modeling

Abstract: Gas volume to intra-peritoneal pressure fuzzy modeling for evaluating pneumoperitoneum in videolaparoscopic surgery is proposed in this paper. The proposed approach innovates in using fuzzy logic and fuzzy set theory for evaluating the accuracy of the prognosis value in order to minimize or avoid iatrogenic injuries due to the blind needle puncture. In so doing, it demonstrates the feasibility of fuzzy analysis to contribute to medicine and health care. Fuzzy systems is employed here in synergy with artificial neural network based on backpropaga tion, multilayer perceptron architecture for building up numerical functions. Experimental data employed for analysis were collected in the accomplishment of the pneumoperitoneum in a random population of patients submitted to videolaparoscopic surgeries. Numerical results indicate that the proposed fuzzy mapping for describing the relation from the intra peritoneal pressure measures as function injected gas volumes succeeded in determinining a fuzzy model for this nonlinear system when compared to the statistical model

Integrated performance prediction and quality control in manufacturing systems

textPredicting the condition of a degrading dynamic system is critical for implementing successful control and designing the optimal operation and maintenance strategies throughout the lifetime of the system. In many situations, especially in manufacturing, systems experience multiple degradation cycles, failures, and maintenance events throughout their lifetimes. In such cases, historical records of sensor readings observed during the lifecycle of a machine can yield vital information about degradation patterns of the monitored machine, which can be used to formulate dynamic models for predicting its future performance. Besides the ability to predict equipment failures, another major component of cost effective and high-throughput manufacturing is tight control of product quality. Quality control is assured by taking periodic measurements of the products at various stages of production. Nevertheless, quality measurements of the product require time and are often executed on costly measurement equipment, which increases the cost of manufacturing and slows down production. One possible way to remedy this situation is to utilize the inherent link between the manufacturing equipment condition, mirrored in the readings of sensors mounted on that machine, and the quality of products coming out of it. The concept of Virtual Metrology (VM) addresses the quality control problem by using data-driven models that relate the product quality to the equipment sensors, enabling continuous estimation of the quality characteristics of the product, even when physical measurements of product quality are not available. VM can thus bring significant production benefits, including improved process control, reduced quality losses and higher productivity. In this dissertation, new methods are formulated that will combine long-term performance prediction of sensory signatures from a degrading manufacturing machine with VM quality estimation, which enables integration of predictive condition monitoring (prediction of sensory signatures) with predictive manufacturing process control (predictive VM model). The recently developed algorithm for prediction of sensory signatures is capable of predicting the system condition by comparing the similarity of the most recent performance signatures with the known degradation patterns available in the historical records. The method accomplishes the prediction of non-Gaussian and non-stationary time-series of relevant performance signatures with analytical tractability, which enables calculations of predicted signature distributions with significantly greater speeds than what can be found in literature. VM quality estimation is implemented using the recently introduced growing structure multiple model system paradigm (GSMMS), based on the use of local linear dynamic models. The concept of local models enables representation of complex, non-linear dependencies with non-Gaussian and non-stationary noise characteristics, using a locally tractable model representation. Localized modeling enables a VM that can detect situations when the VM model is not adequate and needs to be improved, which is one of the main challenges in VM. Finally, uncertainty propagation with Monte Carlo simulation is pursued in order to propagate the predicted distributions of equipment signatures through the VM model to enable prediction of distributions of the quality variables using the readily available sensor readings streaming from the monitored manufacturing machine. The newly developed methods are applied to long-term production data coming from an industrial plasma-enhanced chemical vapor deposition (PECVD) tool operating in a major semiconductor manufacturing fab.Mechanical Engineerin

A novel technique for load frequency control of multi-area power systems

In this paper, an adaptive type-2 fuzzy controller is proposed to control the load frequency of a two-area power system based on descending gradient training and error back-propagation. The dynamics of the system are completely uncertain. The multilayer perceptron (MLP) artificial neural network structure is used to extract Jacobian and estimate the system model, and then, the estimated model is applied to the controller, online. A proportional–derivative (PD) controller is added to the type-2 fuzzy controller, which increases the stability and robustness of the system against disturbances. The adaptation, being real-time and independency of the system parameters are new features of the proposed controller. Carrying out simulations on New England 39-bus power system, the performance of the proposed controller is compared with the conventional PI, PID and internal model control based on PID (IMC-PID) controllers. Simulation results indicate that our proposed controller method outperforms the conventional controllers in terms of transient response and stability

Robust Platelet Logistics Planning in Disaster Relief Operations Under Uncertainty: a Coordinated Approach

© 2017, Springer Science+Business Media, LLC. Resource sharing, as a coordination mechanism, can mitigate disruptions in supply and changes in demand. It is particularly crucial for platelets because they have a short lifespan and need to be transferred and allocated within a limited time to prevent waste or shortages. Thus, a coordinated model comprised of a mixed vertical-horizontal structure, for the logistics of platelets, is proposed for disaster relief operations in the response phase. The aim of this research is to reduce the wastage and shortage of platelets due to their critical role in wound healing. We present a bi-objective location-allocation robust possibilistic programming model for designing a two-layer coordinated organization strategy for multi-type blood-derived platelets under demand uncertainty. Computational results, derived using a heuristic ε-constraint algorithm, are reported and discussed to show the applicability of the proposed model. The experimental results indicate that surpluses and shortages in platelets remarkably declined following instigation of a coordinated disaster relief operation

Contributions to statistical machine learning algorithm

This thesis's research focus is on computational statistics along with DEAR (abbreviation of differential equation associated regression) model direction, and that in mind, the journal papers are written as contributions to statistical machine learning algorithm literature

A Type-2 Fuzzy Logic Based System for Malaria Epidemic Prediction in Ethiopia

Malaria is the most prevalent mosquito-borne disease throughout tropical and subtropical regions of the world with severe medical, economic, and social impact. Malaria is a serious public health problem in Ethiopia since 1959, even if, its morbidity and mortality have been reduced starting from 2001. Various studies were conducted to predict the malaria epidemic using mathematical and statistical approaches, nevertheless, they had no learning capabilities. In this paper, we present a Type-2 Fuzzy Logic Based System for Malaria epidemic prediction in Ethiopia which was trained using real data collected throughout Ethiopia from 2013 to 2017. Fuzzy Logic Based Systems provide a transparent model which employs IF-Then rules for the prediction that could be easily analyzed and interpreted by decision-makers. This is quite important to fight the sources of Malaria and take the needed preventive measures where the generated rules from our system were able to explain the situations and intensity of input factors which contributed to Malaria epidemic incidence up to three months ahead. The presented Type-2 Fuzzy Logic System (T2FLS) learns its rules and fuzzy set parameters from data and was able to outperform its counterparts T1FLS in 2% and ANFIS in 0.33% in the accuracy of prediction of Malaria epidemic in Ethiopia. In addition, the proposed system did shed light on the main causes behind such outbreaks in Ethiopia because of its high level of interpretabilit

Using linear programming for weights identification of generalized bonferroni means in R

The generalized Bonferroni mean is able to capture some interaction effects between variables and model mandatory requirements. We present a number of weights identification algorithms we have developed in the R programming language in order to model data using the generalized Bonferroni mean subject to various preferences. We then compare its accuracy when fitting to the journal ranks dataset