A stigmergy-based analysis of city hotspots to discover trends and anomalies in urban transportation usage

A key aspect of a sustainable urban transportation system is the effectiveness of transportation policies. To be effective, a policy has to consider a broad range of elements, such as pollution emission, traffic flow, and human mobility. Due to the complexity and variability of these elements in the urban area, to produce effective policies remains a very challenging task. With the introduction of the smart city paradigm, a widely available amount of data can be generated in the urban spaces. Such data can be a fundamental source of knowledge to improve policies because they can reflect the sustainability issues underlying the city. In this context, we propose an approach to exploit urban positioning data based on stigmergy, a bio-inspired mechanism providing scalar and temporal aggregation of samples. By employing stigmergy, samples in proximity with each other are aggregated into a functional structure called trail. The trail summarizes relevant dynamics in data and allows matching them, providing a measure of their similarity. Moreover, this mechanism can be specialized to unfold specific dynamics. Specifically, we identify high-density urban areas (i.e hotspots), analyze their activity over time, and unfold anomalies. Moreover, by matching activity patterns, a continuous measure of the dissimilarity with respect to the typical activity pattern is provided. This measure can be used by policy makers to evaluate the effect of policies and change them dynamically. As a case study, we analyze taxi trip data gathered in Manhattan from 2013 to 2015.Comment: Preprin

Bayesian anomaly detection methods for social networks

Learning the network structure of a large graph is computationally demanding, and dynamically monitoring the network over time for any changes in structure threatens to be more challenging still. This paper presents a two-stage method for anomaly detection in dynamic graphs: the first stage uses simple, conjugate Bayesian models for discrete time counting processes to track the pairwise links of all nodes in the graph to assess normality of behavior; the second stage applies standard network inference tools on a greatly reduced subset of potentially anomalous nodes. The utility of the method is demonstrated on simulated and real data sets.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/10-AOAS329 the Annals of Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

CSI: A Hybrid Deep Model for Fake News Detection

The topic of fake news has drawn attention both from the public and the academic communities. Such misinformation has the potential of affecting public opinion, providing an opportunity for malicious parties to manipulate the outcomes of public events such as elections. Because such high stakes are at play, automatically detecting fake news is an important, yet challenging problem that is not yet well understood. Nevertheless, there are three generally agreed upon characteristics of fake news: the text of an article, the user response it receives, and the source users promoting it. Existing work has largely focused on tailoring solutions to one particular characteristic which has limited their success and generality. In this work, we propose a model that combines all three characteristics for a more accurate and automated prediction. Specifically, we incorporate the behavior of both parties, users and articles, and the group behavior of users who propagate fake news. Motivated by the three characteristics, we propose a model called CSI which is composed of three modules: Capture, Score, and Integrate. The first module is based on the response and text; it uses a Recurrent Neural Network to capture the temporal pattern of user activity on a given article. The second module learns the source characteristic based on the behavior of users, and the two are integrated with the third module to classify an article as fake or not. Experimental analysis on real-world data demonstrates that CSI achieves higher accuracy than existing models, and extracts meaningful latent representations of both users and articles.Comment: In Proceedings of the 26th ACM International Conference on Information and Knowledge Management (CIKM) 201