Day-to-day dynamic traffic assignment model with variable message signs and endogenous user compliance

This paper proposes a dual-time-scale, day-to-day dynamic traffic assignment model that takes into account variable message signs (VMS) and its interactions with drivers’ travel choices and adaptive learning processes. The within-day dynamic is captured by a dynamic network loading problem with en route update of path choices influenced by the VMS; the day-to-day dynamic is captured by a simultaneous route-and-departure-time adjustment process that employs bounded user rationality. Moreover, we describe the evolution of the VMS compliance rate by modeling drivers’ learning processes. We endogenize traffic dynamics, route and departure time choices, travel delays, and VMS compliance, and thereby captur their interactions and interdependencies in a holistic manner. A case study in the west end of Glasgow is carried out to understand the impact of VMS has on road congestion and route choices in both the short and long run. Our main find- ings include an adverse effect of the VMS on the network performance in the long run (the “rebound” effect), and existence of an equilibrium state where both traffic and VMS compliance are stabilized

An integrated method for short-term prediction of road traffic conditions for intelligent transportation systems applications

The paper deals with the short-term prediction of road traffic conditions within Intelligent Transportation Systems applications. First, the problem of traffic modeling and the potential of different traffic monitoring technologies are discussed. Then, an integrated method for short-term traffic prediction is presented, which integrates an Artificial Neural Network predictor that forecasts future states in standard conditions, an anomaly detection module that exploits floating car data to individuate possible occurrences of anomalous traffic conditions, and a macroscopic traffic model that predicts speeds and queue progressions in case of anomalies. Results of offline applications on a primary Italian motorway are presented

A Trust Model for Vehicular Network-Based Incident Reports

Vehicle-to-Vehicle (V2V) and Vehicle-to-Infrastructure (V2I) networks are ephemeral, short-duration wireless networks that have the potential to improve the overall driving experience through the exchange of information between vehicles. V2V and V2I networks operate primarily by distributing real-time incident reports regarding potential traffic problems such as traffic jams, accidents, bad roads and so on to other vehicles in their vicinity over a multi-hop network. However, given the presence of malicious entities, blindly trusting such incident reports (even the one received through a cryptographically secure channel) can lead to undesirable consequences. In this paper, we propose an approach to determine the likelihood of the accuracy of V2V incident reports based on the trustworthiness of the report originator and those vehicles that forward it. The proposed approach takes advantage of existing road-side units (RSU) based V2I communication infrastructure deployed and managed by central traffic authorities, which can be used to collect vehicle behavior information in a crowd-sourcedfashion for constructing a more comprehensive view of vehicle trustworthiness. For validating our scheme, we implemented a V2V/V2I trust simulator by extending an existing V2V simulator with trust management capabilities. Preliminary analysis of the model shows promising results. By combining our trust modeling technique with a threshold-based decision strategy, we observed on average 85% accuracy

Towards Social Autonomous Vehicles: Efficient Collision Avoidance Scheme Using Richardson's Arms Race Model

Background Road collisions and casualties pose a serious threat to commuters around the globe. Autonomous Vehicles (AVs) aim to make the use of technology to reduce the road accidents. However, the most of research work in the context of collision avoidance has been performed to address, separately, the rear end, front end and lateral collisions in less congested and with high inter-vehicular distances. Purpose The goal of this paper is to introduce the concept of a social agent, which interact with other AVs in social manners like humans are social having the capability of predicting intentions, i.e. mentalizing and copying the actions of each other, i.e. mirroring. The proposed social agent is based on a human-brain inspired mentalizing and mirroring capabilities and has been modelled for collision detection and avoidance under congested urban road traffic. Method We designed our social agent having the capabilities of mentalizing and mirroring and for this purpose we utilized Exploratory Agent Based Modeling (EABM) level of Cognitive Agent Based Computing (CABC) framework proposed by Niazi and Hussain. Results Our simulation and practical experiments reveal that by embedding Richardson's arms race model within AVs, collisions can be avoided while travelling on congested urban roads in a flock like topologies. The performance of the proposed social agent has been compared at two different levels.Comment: 48 pages, 21 figure