Diderot's rule

The odds of success in creative industries like the book, music or movie industry are often said to be particularly low. A 1763 rule by Denis Diderot, for example, says that only one out of ten published books is a commercial success. Yet, representative evidence on new-product success rates and their development over time is scarce. Furthermore, the standard approach to use sales as success measure can be misleading from the producer's perspective. This paper presents a novel approach to empirically identify producer success by incorporating the standard terms of contract between creator and producer into a parsimonious model of information diffusion (word-of-mouth). The model is applied to a random sample of novels. Parametric and semiparametric estimates imply a success rate between 10 and 15\% for this market. Set against Diderot's rule, these results suggest that new-product success in the book industry has been fairly constant over time.New-product success; word-of-mouth; creative industries; technological change

Effects of Gatekeeping on the Diffusion of Information

This study proposes a theoretical model of information diffusion using the conceptual framework of Gatekeeping Theory (Shoemaker & Vos, 2009). Diffusion is a process by which elements are distributed through a social system (Rogers, 2003; Kadushin, 2012). This model builds on previous diffusion research and incorporates constructs of authority and vivid information, novel to the domain. To test the fit of the model, Twitter data derived using data mining techniques are utilized. Specifically, messages posted to Twitter relating to the 2013 Consumer Electronics (CES) conference are mined. Essentially, this study focuses on the diffusion of technology information through a popular social medium, Twitter. From these messages, the network was be visualized and diffusion paths were determined using network analysis. A test of the model was conducted to determine fit using structural equation modeling

La difusión de la información durante los atentados del 11-M y su influencia percibida en las elecciones generales (estudio del efecto de la tercera persona)

El presente trabajo examina los canales de difusión de la información que se pusieron en marcha inmediatamente después de producirse los atentados del 11 de marzo de 2004 en Madrid. Estudia el papel de la comunicación interpersonal y su interacción con los medios de difusión de masas y lo compara con el modelo de difusión de la información en forma de J. Además, explora el efecto de la tercera persona de los mensajes emitidos por los medios de difusión entre el 11 y el 14 de marzo con referencia al voto emitido en las elecciones generales.The article examines the diffusion of information channels used immediately after 2004 Madrid bombings. It studies the role of personal communication during the process and interaction with media sources. It compares the process with the J-model of information diffusion described by Greenberg (1964). It also explores the Third-person effect of media content between March 11th and14th in relation with the vote during general elections