Degradation Analysis of Probabilistic Parallel Choice Systems

Degradation analysis is used to analyze the useful lifetimes of systems, their failure rates, and various other system parameters like mean time to failure (MTTF), mean time between failures (MTBF), and the system failure rate (SFR). In many systems, certain possible parallel paths of execution that have greater chances of success are preferred over others. Thus we introduce here the concept of probabilistic parallel choice. We use binary and $n$-ary probabilistic choice operators in describing the selections of parallel paths. These binary and $n$-ary probabilistic choice operators are considered so as to represent the complete system (described as a series-parallel system) in terms of the probabilities of selection of parallel paths and their relevant parameters. Our approach allows us to derive new and generalized formulae for system parameters like MTTF, MTBF, and SFR. We use a generalized exponential distribution, allowing distinct installation times for individual components, and use this model to derive expressions for such system parameters

A probabilistic model checking approach to analysing reliability, availability, and maintainability of a single satellite system

Satellites now form a core component for space based systems such as GPS and GLONAS which provide location and timing information for a variety of uses. Such satellites are designed to operate in-orbit and have lifetimes of 10 years or more. Reliability, availability and maintainability (RAM) analysis of these systems has been indispensable in the design phase of satellites in order to achieve minimum failures or to increase mean time between failures (MTBF) and thus to plan maintainability strategies, optimise reliability and maximise availability. In this paper, we present formal modelling of a single satellite and logical specification of its reliability, availability and maintainability properties. The probabilistic model checker PRISM has been used to perform automated quantitative analyses of these properties