10,176 research outputs found

    Advances on Concept Drift Detection in Regression Tasks using Social Networks Theory

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    Mining data streams is one of the main studies in machine learning area due to its application in many knowledge areas. One of the major challenges on mining data streams is concept drift, which requires the learner to discard the current concept and adapt to a new one. Ensemble-based drift detection algorithms have been used successfully to the classification task but usually maintain a fixed size ensemble of learners running the risk of needlessly spending processing time and memory. In this paper we present improvements to the Scale-free Network Regressor (SFNR), a dynamic ensemble-based method for regression that employs social networks theory. In order to detect concept drifts SFNR uses the Adaptive Window (ADWIN) algorithm. Results show improvements in accuracy, especially in concept drift situations and better performance compared to other state-of-the-art algorithms in both real and synthetic data

    Bayesian networks for disease diagnosis: What are they, who has used them and how?

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    A Bayesian network (BN) is a probabilistic graph based on Bayes' theorem, used to show dependencies or cause-and-effect relationships between variables. They are widely applied in diagnostic processes since they allow the incorporation of medical knowledge to the model while expressing uncertainty in terms of probability. This systematic review presents the state of the art in the applications of BNs in medicine in general and in the diagnosis and prognosis of diseases in particular. Indexed articles from the last 40 years were included. The studies generally used the typical measures of diagnostic and prognostic accuracy: sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, precision, and the area under the ROC curve. Overall, we found that disease diagnosis and prognosis based on BNs can be successfully used to model complex medical problems that require reasoning under conditions of uncertainty.Comment: 22 pages, 5 figures, 1 table, Student PhD first pape

    Corporate Social Responsibility: the institutionalization of ESG

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    Understanding the impact of Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) on firm performance as it relates to industries reliant on technological innovation is a complex and perpetually evolving challenge. To thoroughly investigate this topic, this dissertation will adopt an economics-based structure to address three primary hypotheses. This structure allows for each hypothesis to essentially be a standalone empirical paper, unified by an overall analysis of the nature of impact that ESG has on firm performance. The first hypothesis explores the evolution of CSR to the modern quantified iteration of ESG has led to the institutionalization and standardization of the CSR concept. The second hypothesis fills gaps in existing literature testing the relationship between firm performance and ESG by finding that the relationship is significantly positive in long-term, strategic metrics (ROA and ROIC) and that there is no correlation in short-term metrics (ROE and ROS). Finally, the third hypothesis states that if a firm has a long-term strategic ESG plan, as proxied by the publication of CSR reports, then it is more resilience to damage from controversies. This is supported by the finding that pro-ESG firms consistently fared better than their counterparts in both financial and ESG performance, even in the event of a controversy. However, firms with consistent reporting are also held to a higher standard than their nonreporting peers, suggesting a higher risk and higher reward dynamic. These findings support the theory of good management, in that long-term strategic planning is both immediately economically beneficial and serves as a means of risk management and social impact mitigation. Overall, this contributes to the literature by fillings gaps in the nature of impact that ESG has on firm performance, particularly from a management perspective

    Countermeasures for the majority attack in blockchain distributed systems

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    La tecnología Blockchain es considerada como uno de los paradigmas informáticos más importantes posterior al Internet; en función a sus características únicas que la hacen ideal para registrar, verificar y administrar información de diferentes transacciones. A pesar de esto, Blockchain se enfrenta a diferentes problemas de seguridad, siendo el ataque del 51% o ataque mayoritario uno de los más importantes. Este consiste en que uno o más mineros tomen el control de al menos el 51% del Hash extraído o del cómputo en una red; de modo que un minero puede manipular y modificar arbitrariamente la información registrada en esta tecnología. Este trabajo se enfocó en diseñar e implementar estrategias de detección y mitigación de ataques mayoritarios (51% de ataque) en un sistema distribuido Blockchain, a partir de la caracterización del comportamiento de los mineros. Para lograr esto, se analizó y evaluó el Hash Rate / Share de los mineros de Bitcoin y Crypto Ethereum, seguido del diseño e implementación de un protocolo de consenso para controlar el poder de cómputo de los mineros. Posteriormente, se realizó la exploración y evaluación de modelos de Machine Learning para detectar software malicioso de tipo Cryptojacking.DoctoradoDoctor en Ingeniería de Sistemas y Computació

    latent Dirichlet allocation method-based nowcasting approach for prediction of silver price

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    Silver is a metal that offers significant value to both investors and companies. The purpose of this study is to make an estimation of the price of silver. While making this estimation, it is planned to include the frequency of searches on Google Trends for the words that affect the silver price. Thus, it is aimed to obtain a more accurate estimate. First, using the Latent Dirichlet Allocation method, the keywords to be analyzed in Google Trends were collected from various articles on the Internet. Mining data from Google Trends combined with the information obtained by LDA is the new approach this study took, to predict the price of silver. No study has been found in the literature that has adopted this approach to estimate the price of silver. The estimation was carried out with Random Forest Regression, Gaussian Process Regression, Support Vector Machine, Regression Trees and Artificial Neural Networks methods. In addition, ARIMA, which is one of the traditional methods that is widely used in time series analysis, was also used to benchmark the accuracy of the methodology. The best MSE ratio was obtained as 0,000227131 ± 0.0000235205 by the Regression Trees method. This score indicates that it would be a valid technique to estimate the price of "Silver" by using Google Trends data using the LDA method

    Machine Learning Research Trends in Africa: A 30 Years Overview with Bibliometric Analysis Review

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    In this paper, a critical bibliometric analysis study is conducted, coupled with an extensive literature survey on recent developments and associated applications in machine learning research with a perspective on Africa. The presented bibliometric analysis study consists of 2761 machine learning-related documents, of which 98% were articles with at least 482 citations published in 903 journals during the past 30 years. Furthermore, the collated documents were retrieved from the Science Citation Index EXPANDED, comprising research publications from 54 African countries between 1993 and 2021. The bibliometric study shows the visualization of the current landscape and future trends in machine learning research and its application to facilitate future collaborative research and knowledge exchange among authors from different research institutions scattered across the African continent

    Practical Lessons on Optimizing Sponsored Products in eCommerce

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    In this paper, we study multiple problems from sponsored product optimization in ad system, including position-based de-biasing, click-conversion multi-task learning, and calibration on predicted click-through-rate (pCTR). We propose a practical machine learning framework that provides the solutions to such problems without structural change to existing machine learning models, thus can be combined with most machine learning models including shallow models (e.g. gradient boosting decision trees, support vector machines). In this paper, we first propose data and feature engineering techniques to handle the aforementioned problems in ad system; after that, we evaluate the benefit of our practical framework on real-world data sets from our traffic logs from online shopping site. We show that our proposed practical framework with data and feature engineering can also handle the perennial problems in ad systems and bring increments to multiple evaluation metrics

    A hybrid model using data mining and multi-criteria decision-making methods for landslide risk mapping at Golestan Province, Iran

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    The accurate modeling of landslide risk is essential pre-requisite for the development of reliable landslide control and mitigation strategies. However, landslide risk depends on the poorly known environmental and socio-economic factors for regional patterns of landslide occurrence probability and vulnerability, which constitute still a matter of research. Here, a hybrid model is described that couples data mining and multi-criteria decision-making methods for hazard and vulnerability mapping and presents its application to landslide risk assessment in Golestan Province, Northeastern Iran. To this end, landslide probability is mapped using three state-of-the-art machine learning (ML) algorithms—Maximum Entropy, Support Vector Machine and Genetic Algorithm for Rule Set Production—and combine the results with Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchy Process computations of vulnerability to obtain the landslide risk map. Based on obtained results, a discussion is presented on landslide probability as a function of the main relevant human-environmental conditioning factors in Golestan Province. In particular, from the response curves of the machine learning algorithms, it can be found that the probability p of landslide occurrence decreases nearly exponentially with the distance x to the next road, fault, or river. Specifically, the results indicated that p≈exp(−λx) where the length scale λ is about 0.0797 km−1 for road, 0.108 km−1 for fault, and 0.734 km−1 0.734 km−1 for river. Furthermore, according to the results, p follows, approximately, a lognormal function of elevation, while the equation p=p0−K(θ−θ0)2 fits well the dependence of landslide modeling on the slope-angle θ, with p0≈0.64,θ0≈25.6∘and|K|≈6.6×10−4. However, the highest predicted landslide risk levels in Golestan Province are located in the south and southwest areas surrounding Gorgan City, owing to the combined effect of dense local human occupation and strongly landslide-prone environmental conditions. Obtained results provide insights for quantitative modeling of landslide risk, as well as for priority planning in landslide risk management

    Metaphors of London fog, smoke and mist in Victorian and Edwardian Art and Literature

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    Julian Wolfreys has argued that after 1850 writers employed stock images of the city without allowing them to transform their texts. This thesis argues, on the contrary, that metaphorical uses of London fog were complex and subtle during the Victorian and Edwardian periods, at least until 1914. Fog represented, in particular, formlessness and the dissolution of boundaries. Examining the idea of fog in literature, verse, newspaper accounts and journal articles, as well as in the visual arts, as part of a common discourse about London and the state of its inhabitants, this thesis charts how the metaphorical appropriation of this idea changed over time. Four of Dickens's novels are used to track his use of fog as part of a discourse of the natural and unnatural in individual and society, identifying it with London in progressively more negative terms. Visual representations of fog by Constable, Turner, Whistler, Monet, Markino, O'Connor, Roberts and Wyllie and Coburn showed an increasing readiness to engage with this discourse. Social tensions in the city in the 1880s were articulated in art as well as in fiction. Authors like Hay and Barr showed the destruction of London by its fog because of its inhabitants' supposed degeneracy. As the social threat receded, apocalyptic scenarios gave way to a more optimistic view in the work of Owen and others. Henry James used fog as a metaphorical representation of the boundaries of gendered behaviour in public, and the problems faced by women who crossed them. The dissertation also examines fog and individual transgression, in novels and short stories by Lowndes, Stevenson, Conan Doyle and Joseph Conrad. After 1914, fog was no more than a crude signifier of Victorian London in literature, film and, later, television, deployed as a cliche instead of the subtle metaphorical idea discussed in this thesis
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