5 research outputs found
Uncertainty Quantification of geochemical and mechanical compaction in layered sedimentary basins
In this work we propose an Uncertainty Quantification methodology for
sedimentary basins evolution under mechanical and geochemical compaction
processes, which we model as a coupled, time-dependent, non-linear,
monodimensional (depth-only) system of PDEs with uncertain parameters. While in
previous works (Formaggia et al. 2013, Porta et al., 2014) we assumed a
simplified depositional history with only one material, in this work we
consider multi-layered basins, in which each layer is characterized by a
different material, and hence by different properties. This setting requires
several improvements with respect to our earlier works, both concerning the
deterministic solver and the stochastic discretization. On the deterministic
side, we replace the previous fixed-point iterative solver with a more
efficient Newton solver at each step of the time-discretization. On the
stochastic side, the multi-layered structure gives rise to discontinuities in
the dependence of the state variables on the uncertain parameters, that need an
appropriate treatment for surrogate modeling techniques, such as sparse grids,
to be effective. We propose an innovative methodology to this end which relies
on a change of coordinate system to align the discontinuities of the target
function within the random parameter space. The reference coordinate system is
built upon exploiting physical features of the problem at hand. We employ the
locations of material interfaces, which display a smooth dependence on the
random parameters and are therefore amenable to sparse grid polynomial
approximations. We showcase the capabilities of our numerical methodologies
through two synthetic test cases. In particular, we show that our methodology
reproduces with high accuracy multi-modal probability density functions
displayed by target state variables (e.g., porosity).Comment: 25 pages, 30 figure