Statistical Significance of the Netflix Challenge

Inspired by the legacy of the Netflix contest, we provide an overview of what has been learned---from our own efforts, and those of others---concerning the problems of collaborative filtering and recommender systems. The data set consists of about 100 million movie ratings (from 1 to 5 stars) involving some 480 thousand users and some 18 thousand movies; the associated ratings matrix is about 99% sparse. The goal is to predict ratings that users will give to movies; systems which can do this accurately have significant commercial applications, particularly on the world wide web. We discuss, in some detail, approaches to "baseline" modeling, singular value decomposition (SVD), as well as kNN (nearest neighbor) and neural network models; temporal effects, cross-validation issues, ensemble methods and other considerations are discussed as well. We compare existing models in a search for new models, and also discuss the mission-critical issues of penalization and parameter shrinkage which arise when the dimensions of a parameter space reaches into the millions. Although much work on such problems has been carried out by the computer science and machine learning communities, our goal here is to address a statistical audience, and to provide a primarily statistical treatment of the lessons that have been learned from this remarkable set of data.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/11-STS368 the Statistical Science (http://www.imstat.org/sts/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Maximum Inner-Product Search using Tree Data-structures

The problem of {\em efficiently} finding the best match for a query in a given set with respect to the Euclidean distance or the cosine similarity has been extensively studied in literature. However, a closely related problem of efficiently finding the best match with respect to the inner product has never been explored in the general setting to the best of our knowledge. In this paper we consider this general problem and contrast it with the existing best-match algorithms. First, we propose a general branch-and-bound algorithm using a tree data structure. Subsequently, we present a dual-tree algorithm for the case where there are multiple queries. Finally we present a new data structure for increasing the efficiency of the dual-tree algorithm. These branch-and-bound algorithms involve novel bounds suited for the purpose of best-matching with inner products. We evaluate our proposed algorithms on a variety of data sets from various applications, and exhibit up to five orders of magnitude improvement in query time over the naive search technique.Comment: Under submission in KDD 201

Message-Passing Inference on a Factor Graph for Collaborative Filtering

This paper introduces a novel message-passing (MP) framework for the collaborative filtering (CF) problem associated with recommender systems. We model the movie-rating prediction problem popularized by the Netflix Prize, using a probabilistic factor graph model and study the model by deriving generalization error bounds in terms of the training error. Based on the model, we develop a new MP algorithm, termed IMP, for learning the model. To show superiority of the IMP algorithm, we compare it with the closely related expectation-maximization (EM) based algorithm and a number of other matrix completion algorithms. Our simulation results on Netflix data show that, while the methods perform similarly with large amounts of data, the IMP algorithm is superior for small amounts of data. This improves the cold-start problem of the CF systems in practice. Another advantage of the IMP algorithm is that it can be analyzed using the technique of density evolution (DE) that was originally developed for MP decoding of error-correcting codes

Content-boosted Matrix Factorization Techniques for Recommender Systems

Many businesses are using recommender systems for marketing outreach. Recommendation algorithms can be either based on content or driven by collaborative filtering. We study different ways to incorporate content information directly into the matrix factorization approach of collaborative filtering. These content-boosted matrix factorization algorithms not only improve recommendation accuracy, but also provide useful insights about the contents, as well as make recommendations more easily interpretable