How brains make decisions

This chapter, dedicated to the memory of Mino Freund, summarizes the Quantum Decision Theory (QDT) that we have developed in a series of publications since 2008. We formulate a general mathematical scheme of how decisions are taken, using the point of view of psychological and cognitive sciences, without touching physiological aspects. The basic principles of how intelligence acts are discussed. The human brain processes involved in decisions are argued to be principally different from straightforward computer operations. The difference lies in the conscious-subconscious duality of the decision making process and the role of emotions that compete with utility optimization. The most general approach for characterizing the process of decision making, taking into account the conscious-subconscious duality, uses the framework of functional analysis in Hilbert spaces, similarly to that used in the quantum theory of measurements. This does not imply that the brain is a quantum system, but just allows for the simplest and most general extension of classical decision theory. The resulting theory of quantum decision making, based on the rules of quantum measurements, solves all paradoxes of classical decision making, allowing for quantitative predictions that are in excellent agreement with experiments. Finally, we provide a novel application by comparing the predictions of QDT with experiments on the prisoner dilemma game. The developed theory can serve as a guide for creating artificial intelligence acting by quantum rules.Comment: Latex file, 20 pages, 3 figure

Make-or-Buy Decisions in Patent Related Services

Among the most prominent theoretical frameworks dealing with the economic underlyings of firms’ make-or-buy decisions are Transaction Cost Economics (TCE) and the Resourced Based View (RBV). Relying on panel data covering 107 European firms over eight years I test predictions from both TCE and RBV with regard to the outsourcing of patent related services simultaneously. Modelling the share of outsourced patent applications in a Negative Binomial Panel Regression Model I find joint explanatory power of both approaches. My findings support previous literature arguing for an integration of TCE and RBV to a comprehensive theoretical framework of firms make-or-buy decisions

Naming and Framing Difficult Issues to Make Sound Decisions

Outlines how to promote shared decision making and effective collective action by naming divisive community issues in ways that focus on common concerns, deliberating over options, identifying actions citizens can take, and working through disagreements

DTR Bandit: Learning to Make Response-Adaptive Decisions With Low Regret

Dynamic treatment regimes (DTRs) are personalized, adaptive, multi-stage treatment plans that adapt treatment decisions both to an individual's initial features and to intermediate outcomes and features at each subsequent stage, which are affected by decisions in prior stages. Examples include personalized first- and second-line treatments of chronic conditions like diabetes, cancer, and depression, which adapt to patient response to first-line treatment, disease progression, and individual characteristics. While existing literature mostly focuses on estimating the optimal DTR from offline data such as from sequentially randomized trials, we study the problem of developing the optimal DTR in an online manner, where the interaction with each individual affect both our cumulative reward and our data collection for future learning. We term this the DTR bandit problem. We propose a novel algorithm that, by carefully balancing exploration and exploitation, is guaranteed to achieve rate-optimal regret when the transition and reward models are linear. We demonstrate our algorithm and its benefits both in synthetic experiments and in a case study of adaptive treatment of major depressive disorder using real-world data

How ordinary consumers make complex economic decisions: financial literacy and retirement readiness

This paper explores who is financially literate, whether people accurately perceive their own economic decision-making skills, and where these skills come from. Self-assessed and objective measures of financial literacy can be linked to consumers’ efforts to plan for retirement in the American Life Panel, and causal relationships with retirement planning examined by exploiting information about respondent financial knowledge acquired in school. Results show that those with more advanced financial knowledge are those more likely to be retirement-ready

How politicians make decisions under risk: a political choice experiment

We report on an experimental study with real-world politicians. These political experts face political choice problems under risk and probability. Thus, we test the frequently observed violations of rational choice theory -the reference point effect, loss aversion, framing effects, and the common ratio effect- with experts from the field. Their choices violate expected utility theory. Nevertheless, they appear to be more rational and less risk averse (loving) in the domain of gains (losses) than student subjects.Subject-pool effect; experts; expected utility; prospect theory.

Value Creation and Value Claiming in Make-Or-Buy Decisions

Transaction value analysis (TVA) integrates the concepts of resourceheterogeneity and transaction cost economics into a single framework,which emphasizes both value creation and value claiming in firms'vertical integration decisions. Using a TVA perspective, we develophypotheses to explain the firm's intent to outsource applicationservices. A sample of 178 firms in the publishing and printingindustry in The Netherlands is used to test the hypotheses. This paperfinds that firms take both value-creation and value-claimingmotivations into consideration, with value creation having on averagea dominating impact, thus substantiating the TVA framework. However,we also find that if the risks of opportunism in outsourcingcontracting are high, value creation becomes the less important factorin make-or-buy decisions. Furthermore, the paper shows that the needfor flexibility is a major driver of governance choice forvalue-creation as well as for value-claiming motivations. Implicationsand future research directions are discussed.information technology;interorganizational strategy;make-or-buy decisions;outsourcing relationships;transaction value analysis

The Blind Leading the Blind: Who Gets Polling Information and Does it Improve Decisions?

We analyze whether and when polls help citizens to improve their decisions. Specifically, we use experiments to investigate 1) whether and when citizens are willing to obtain polls and 2) whether and when polls help citizens to make better choices than they would have made on their own. We find that citizens are more likely to obtain polls when the decisions they must make are difficult and when they are unsophisticated. Ironically, when the decisions are difficult, the pollees are also uninformed and, therefore, do not provide useful information. We also find that when polls indicate the welfare-improving choice, citizens are able to improve their decisions. However, when polls indicate a choice that will make citizens worse off, citizens make worse decisions than they would have made on their own. These results hold regardless of whether the majority in favor of one option over the other is small or large

Will the New U.K. Competition and Markets Authority Make Better Antitrust Decisions?

The United Kingdom has a unique set of institutions charged with enforcing competition law. The twin pillars are the Competition Commission (“CC”) and the Office of Fair Trading (“OFT”). In the coming parliament, legislation will be passed to merge them into a new Competition and Markets Authority (“CMA”), probably with effect from 2014.2 They each have a high reputation and are regularly ranked alongside the DOJ, FTC, and DG Competition as among the best in the world. OK, few would argue that any of these institutions is unimprovable, but it does mean there is much that could be lost if the CMA is less effective than its predecessors. Should we be worried