Making a case for power-sensitive water modelling: a literature review

Hydrological models are widely used to research hydrological change and risk. Yet, the power embedded in the modelling process and outcomes are often concealed by claiming its neutrality. Our systematic review shows that in scientific literature relatively little attention is given to the power of models to influence development processes and outcomes in water governance. The review also shows that there is much to learn from those who are willing to be openly reflexive on the influence of models. In agreement with this emerging body of work, we call for power-sensitive modelling, which means that people are critical about how models are made and with what implications, taking into account that: i) The choice for and use of models for water management happens in a political context and has political consequences; ii) Models are the result of choices made by modellers and &ndash; since they have political consequences &ndash; these need to be made as explicit as possible as opposed to being &ldquo;blackboxed&rdquo;; iii) To consider the ethical implications of the choices of modellers, commissioners, and users, and to improve accountability, models and their power need to be understood by connecting the inner workings of a model with a contextual understanding of its development and use, iv) Action is taken upon these implications by democratising modelling processes. Our call should not be understood as a suggestion to do away with modelling altogether, but rather as an invitation to interrogate how quantitative models may help to foster transformative pathways towards more just and equitable water distributions.</p