SPATIAL ECONOMETRICS - APPLICATIONS TO INVESTIGATE DISTRIBUTION OF CO2 EMISSION IN EUROPE*

Over the last decade economists were more and more concentrated on studying the impact of the greenhouse effect on economy. At the same time, they tried to find solutions to stop the CO2 emissions into the atmosphere and, implicitly, to make changes in the structure of energy production and consumption. This challenge forced them to use new models and methods in order to estimate more accurately the future economic development. Among the special tools, the so-called spatial econometrics begun to be used for studying, for example, the distribution of gas emissions in extended geographical zones, but also to quantify their implication at the macroeconomic level. Using available data, in this study we try to build a simple model dedicated to estimate on medium and long terms some likely major changes in the macroeconomic correlations under the circumstances of increase in the total quantity of CO2 emissions in the atmosphere and how that will influence the economic growth in the future. Certainly, under the unchanged actual technological conditions the growth rate of the economies in Europe or even worldwide could be dramatically affected at least in the long run by stronger restrictions on CO2 emission and on its corollary - production and consumption of energy resources. * (This paper is partially based on the author's study "Elaboration of a General Macroeconomic Model Specific to Romania for the Forecasting of Gas Emissions with Greenhouse Effect", achieved within the National Research Project of Excellence Advanced Forecasting Models for the Estimation of Gas Emissions with Greenhouse Effect Adapted for Romania, Institute for Economic Forecasting, Romanian Academy, Phase II, June 2006, Contract No. 638/3 October 2005, Contracting Authority - MENER, Contractor ICEM, Interval : 2005-2007).spatial econometrics, CO2 emission, three-dimensional map, contour plot, distribution

An econometric analysis of the determinants of growth in the Kingdom of Tonga, 1970-1998 : a research thesis submitted in partial requirement for the degree of Master of Applied and International Economics at Massey University

The importance of determining the factors that contribute to economic growth is vital in the case of Tonga because of the benefits and advantages it provides for the people and their future development. The main objective of this study is to analyse and investigate empirically the macroeconomic factors that promote economic growth and development in Tonga. Economic theories and various studies have presented the variables that may affect growth. These include investment (domestic and foreign), labour force, exports and imports, fiscal policies, tourism receipts, private remittances, foreign aid and its various components. Foreign resources such as aid and private remittances play an important role in the development of small island economies and Tonga's heavy reliance on these factors may also explain their contribution to growth. The study uses a neoclassical production function to examine the relationships between economic growth in Tonga and the proposed determinants listed above. The cointegration method of Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag is utilised in the analysis. The empirical evidence indicates that factors making a positive contribution to economic growth in Tonga are the growth in exports, tourism receipts, openness to trade, government consumption expenditure, bilateral aid, grant aid and imports. The loan aid, multilateral aid, technical co-operation grants and private remittances, while significant in most cases, show a decline over time. Natural disasters and external market shocks have a strong adverse effect on Tonga's growth rate. The issue of macroeconomic management is stressed in this study as the key role to be played by the government in order for the available resources to be allocated to the productive sectors of the economy. This can be undertaken through setting stable macroeconomic environment, introducing and maintaining growth-oriented policies and structural reforms in some of the key sectors of the economy. Research should be concentrated on high value niche products and promoting technological development to support the diversification in the export and tourism sectors. Measures should also be adopted to monitor the effectiveness of utilising foreign aid projects, as current aid flows show a decline

Macroeconomic Consequences of Ageing and Directed Technological Change. BertelsmannStiftung Studies

Macroeconomic Consequences of Ageing and Directed Technological Change Demographic projections foresee a pronounced population ageing process in the coming decades. The associated changes in quantity and quality of labour will have an impact on the long-term economic outlook. This study discusses economic implications of current demographic projections for a set of large industrialized economies, which include the largest member states of the EU, the USA and Japan, as well as Austria as an example of a small open economy. The focus of the study is the interplay between demographic and technological trends. The study extends the methodology of the European Commission’s Ageing Report by considering the effects of size and composition of the working-age population on the productivity growth and productivity effect of the ICT-intensity as a measure of directed technological change

A multi-sectoral approach to the Harrod foreign trade multiplier

With this inquiry, we seek to develop a multi-sectoral version of the static Harrod foreign trade multiplier, by showing that it can be derived from an extended version of the Pasinettian model of structural change and international trade. This new version highlights the connections between the balance-of-payments and levels of employment and production. It is also shown that from this disaggregated version of the Harrod foreign multiplier we can derive an aggregate version of the multiplier. By following this approach we go a step further in establishing the connections between the Structural Economic Dynamic and Balance-of-Payments Constrained Growth approaches

A comparative study of five Dutch disease models: a thesis presented in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Philosophy in Social Sciences at Massey University

During the past decade, the sudden and sharp increases in oil prices, coupled with the discovery and extraction of oil in the North Sea, have contributed considerable interest in the macroeconomic problems of oil-exporting countries. It is well known that a domestic oil discovery can give rise to wealth effects that cause a squeeze in the traded goods sector of an open economy. The decline of the manufacturing sector following an oil discovery is termed the 'Dutch disease', and has been investigated in many recent studies which embody a general equilibrium model. This is detailed in Chapter One where the development of Dutch disease literature is discussed. Despite the development of a wide range of the Dutch disease models, There is still a lack of consensus regarding the analysis on the issue of Dutch disease. This thesis aims to study a number of different models of the Dutch disease by focussing on the following considerations: i) the underlying theoretical framework with reference to some main-stream economic theories, such as those based on Trade theory, Neoclassical and Keynesian traditions; ii) the assumptions made within each framework regarding monetary and supply-side conditions; iii) analysis of the various effects of exogenous disturbances on the economy; and iv) evaluation of the relationship between the underlying assumptions and the conclusions drawn from the model analysis. Chapter Two outlines the classification of the Dutch disease model into three broad categories. These categories distinguish between the types of macroeconomic effects which give rise to the Dutch disease phenomenon. Detailed algebraic specification of each model, using standard notations developed for this thesis, along with the assumptions made are described in Chapter Three. Chapter Four is devoted to a comparative study of the models. In each section, two models are compared to draw out the differences in their assumptions and approach, and to show how these differences can affect their final conclusions about the effect of various exogenous disturbances. A summary of the main results of the comparative study is given in Chapter Five. Some points for further research are also briefly discussed

Інноваційні резерви підвищення продуктивності інтелектуальної праці в Україні

The major macroeconomic influencing factors on development country effectiveness by innovative model have been determined in the article. By analyzing the supporting of development country by innovative model regulatory framework the weaknesses and reasons for the low level of Ukrainian innovation development have been determined. Suggested measures are aimed for the improvement of innovative situation and pave the way for the effectiveness development country by innovative model have been proposal in the article. Метою статті є визначення інноваційних факторів, що впливають на рівень розвитку інтелектуальної праці, та пошук резервів їх покращення. У статті визначено основні макроекономічні фактори, що впливають на ефективність розвитку країни за інноваційною моделлю. В основі даних факторів лежить ефективна державна політика, що ґрунтується на сильній нормативно-правовій. На основі проведеного аналізу нормативно-правової бази щодо підтримки розвитку країни за інноваційною моделлю визначено слабкі сторони та причини низького рівня інноваційного розвитку України, а також запропоновано заходи, спрямовані на оздоровлення інноваційної ситуації в крані та створення підґрунтя для ефективного розвитку країни за інноваційною моделлю. Як підсумок визначено, що в Україні створено нормативно-правове поле для ефективної реалізації інноваційного потенціалу країни, однак практичне невиконання та колізія деяких нормативних актів гальмує розвиток країни за інноваційною моделлю. Тому, запропоновані у статті заходи сприятимуть вирішенню визначених проблем

A comparative framework: how broadly applicable is a 'rigorous' critical junctures framework?

The paper tests Hogan and Doyle's (2007, 2008) framework for examining critical junctures. This framework sought to incorporate the concept of ideational change in understanding critical junctures. Until its development, frameworks utilized in identifying critical junctures were subjective, seeking only to identify crisis, and subsequent policy changes, arguing that one invariably led to the other, as both occurred around the same time. Hogan and Doyle (2007, 2008) hypothesized ideational change as an intermediating variable in their framework, determining if, and when, a crisis leads to radical policy change. Here we test this framework on cases similar to, but different from, those employed in developing the exemplar. This will enable us determine whether the framework's relegation of ideational change to a condition of crisis holds, or, if ideational change has more importance than is ascribed to it by this framework. This will also enable us determined if the framework itself is robust, and fit for the purposes it was designed to perform — identifying the nature of policy change