Transport costs and"natural"integration in Mercosur

The authors explore the argument that trade between the Mercosur countries should be stimulated by preferential policies because of their geographic proximity. That is, that the Mercosur countries are candidates for natural integration. They find that, on average, transportation margins on trade within Mercosur and between Mercosur and Chile are about 6 percentage points lower than on trade with the rest of the world. That is a significant margin, and one that was reflected in the countries'trade patterns even before regional trade agreements reduced the policy-based barriers to mutual trade. But it is probably not large enough, in and of itself (without other benefits), to make the introduction of trade preferences desirable. The authors also explore the argument that absolutely high transportation costs between Mercosur and the rest of the world (that is, not relative to intra-Mercosur costs) justify regional trade preferences. For this to apply, the introduction of trade preferences must cause the Mercosur countries to cease importing some goods from the rest of the world completely. While Mercosur --rest-of-the-world transport costs certainly are high, trade patterns suggest that very few goods will cease to be imported from the rest of the world. Finally, the authors find that transport margins on imports are, on average, 2 to 4 percentage points higher for Mercosur countries than for the United States. Further research on why this is so is necessary before one can conclude that avoidable inefficiencies are involved.Development Economics&Aid Effectiveness,Trade Policy,Environmental Economics&Policies,Agribusiness&Markets,Consumption,Economic Theory&Research,TF054105-DONOR FUNDED OPERATION ADMINISTRATION FEE INCOME AND EXPENSE ACCOUNT,Environmental Economics&Policies,Trade and Regional Integration,Trade Policy

The EU-Mercosur agreement: towards integrated climate policy? Egmont European Policy Brief No. 57 November 2019

The recently signed EU-Mercosur agreement has met with criticism from civil society, farmers and politicians around the EU. These criticisms have been amplified by recent forest fires in the Amazon. Although the Von der Leyen Commission’s strategic documents highlight the importance of mainstreaming climate change and environment throughout all policies, including trade, the EU-Mercosur agreement lacks enforceable measures to this end. In light of recent events, ratification of the EU-Mercosur agreement by all member states seems unlikely. However, the EU itself could also use this opportunity to send a clear message as to where its priorities lie by taking unified action to shift the terms of the trade agreement

Did MERCOSUR affect interstate Brazilian trade ?.

We consider the effect of MERCOSUR on trade between Brazilian states and on trade of Brazilian states with the rest of the world. We use a gravity model to shed light on the possible diversion effect of MERCOSUR. Thanks to the data on inter-state trade only for four years including one available year for the pre-MERCOSUR period (1991). We show that MERCOSUR led to an increase of trade of Brazilian states with member countries however without neither affecting intra-state trade nor trade of Brazilian states with third countries. The paper also shows the lack of integration of the Northern region.Regional Trade Agreements; Border Effect; Gravity Model; MERCOSUR; Brazil;

MERCOSUR-EU trade: The impact of adverse macroeconomic developments and trade barriers on MERCOSUR exports

This article examines sectoral MERCOSUR exports to the EU in the period of 1988 to 1996. A sectoral study is considered indispensable since tariff and non-tariff trade barriers vary strongly among sectors. The empirical investigation is based on both a dynamic panel analysis and a rather qualitative evaluation of the extent of tariff and non-tariff barriers imposed by the EU. The ex-post analysis for the period of 1988 to 1996 revealed three things: First, a more competitive real exchange rate could contribute to a better MERCOSUR export performance. Second, EU protection has had in general a very negative impact on MERCOSUR export growth rates. Third, EU protection strongly affected MERCOSUR's largest export sectors.Sectoral MERCOSUR-EU trade, dynamic panel analysis, impact of tariff and non-tariff trade barriers

Expansion of Mercosur's Agricultural Exports to the EU: An Empirical Assessment of the Trade Flows

This paper provides new evidence on income and price elasticities of demand for agricultural exports from Mercosur countries to the EU. Econometric models are constructed for eight agricultural commodities - beef, cocoa, coffee, orange juice, poultry, sugar, soya and wheat - exported from Mercosur to the EU. A modelling approach based on the error correction mechanism is used in order to emphasise the importance of the dynamics of trade functions. The results indicate that there is a relatively weak demand response to income and price changes in the EU. However, the results also suggest that relative-price variations affect significantly the demand for Mercosur commodity exports, implying that the exporter's market share is influenced by price competitiveness.agricultural trade, European Union, Mercosur, econometric models, cointegration, International Relations/Trade, C22, Q17,

CHALLENGES FOR BRAZIL'S FOOD INDUSTRY IN THE CONTEXT OF GLOBALIZATION AND MERCOSUR CONSOLIDATION

This paper examines how the Brazilian food industry has been heavily affected by several recent institutional and economic changes. The food industry, including the processing and retail sectors, is part of a broader agribusiness system that conditions corporationsÂ’ strategies, performance, and adoption of adequate governance structures. The Brazilian agroindustrialization process that preceded the formation of the sub-regional free-trade area (Mercosur) and economic liberalization influenced subsequent development of the agribusiness and food system in the Mercosur countries and their investment and trade links to countries outside Mercosur. The article emphasizes business strategies for coping with challenges and opportunities that have arisen from Mercosur integration, from economic stabilization programs and, more importantly, from a broad range of institutional changes such as trade liberalization, deregulation, and the friendlier treatment of foreign capital. These changes have together fostered the globalization process in the region and have stimulated different responses from large and small firms, all threatened by the new, competitive environment.Agribusiness, International Relations/Trade,

Impact assessment of trade liberalisation between EU and Mercosur countries

Ongoing bilateral trade negotiations between the Mercosur group and the EU since 2000 on agricultural products served as incitement to analyse the impacts of possible outcomes. The objective of this paper is to quantitatively assess impacts of bilateral liberalisation scenarios on EU25 and Mercosur markets as well as their bilateral trade flows. For this purpose, the CAPRI model, which has already been applied to several multi- and bilateral trade liberalisation scenarios in the past, has been adopted in several ways. (1) Trading blocks in CAPRI have been expanded so that the Mercosur countries are now represented with country specific behavioural functions and explicit trade flows. (2) The parameters of these behavioural functions have been calibrated using recently estimated supply and demand elasticities (CAP, E. ET AL., 2006) as prior information in a constrained Bayesian framework (HECKELEI, T. ET AL., 2005). (3) Two different baselines scenarios varying in the assumed production potential of the Mercosur countries were defined with experts from these countries. This approach reflects that developments in Mercosur countries are very dynamic with lots of uncertainties. It also provides analysis of results dependent on baselines which is an innovation in CAPRI (technically and qualitatively). In this paper three selected scenarios are analysed. The first scenario reflects an unilateral partial liberalisation between the EU25 and the Mercosur countries by allocating additional Tariff Rate Quotas (TRQs) to the Mercosur countries for certain products based on an official EU proposal (USDA, 2005). The second scenario combines the partial unilateral liberalisation with the multilateral WTO G20 proposal. Sensitive products are defined according to JEAN, S. et al. (2006). The third comprises a bilateral full liberalisation between the EU25 and the Mercosur countries by allowing quota and duty free access in both directions for all agricultural products. The results focus on welfare effects and the market balances of seven key commodities (wheat, maize, rice, soybeans, bovine meat, chicken and pork). Furthermore, a sensitivity analysis on the elasticities of substitution between foreign and domestic produced goods that drive demand of trade flows is provided and shows that the choice of those elasticities is very crucial with respect to model results.Trade liberalisation, Mercosur, CAPRI, Armington., Demand and Price Analysis, International Relations/Trade,

Business Cycles and Macroeconomic Policy Coordination in Mercosur

Abstract: The paper analyzes cyclical comovements in the Mercosur area differentiating idiosyncratic from common shocks. In the Mercosur (or any region for that matter) shocks can be country-specific, affecting only one country or a specific set of countries (for example, a weather-related shock, a domestic policy shock); or they can be common to the entire region (for example, a change in the conditions in international capital markets or a world recession). Propagation mechanisms, in turn, are important because a shock that was initially country-specific, originating in one country, might eventually spillover to others. We build on the unobserved component approach to decompose the Mercosur countries’ real GDP (seasonally adjusted) uctuations into these three components and compare them with previous results. The main findings in the paper are: first, common factors originating in impulses stemming from changes in investor’s sentiment are relevant to explaining regional output comovements and the spillover effects between neighbors are significant. Second, volatility matters, and matters especially in the case of recent regional agreements. Supply shocks in Mercosur countries tend to be larger than in the US and European countries. Third, finance matters for both volatility and output/price dynamics. Accelerator effects may be important in explaining some features of the output/price dynamics that the standard models based on vector autoregression techniques are unable to account forBusiness cycle, Comovement, Mercosur, OCA, Policy coordination

Would MERCOSUR’s Exports to the EU Profit from Trade Liberalisation? Some General Insights and a Simulation Study for Argentina

In this study, MERCOSUR\'s past exports to the EU under the protectionist environment of the period between 1988 and 1996 are examined and an attempt is made to determine MERCOSUR\'s exports\' growth potential in a liberalised EU market. A sectoral study is considered indispensable since tariff and non-tariff trade barriers vary strongly among sectors. The influence of the macroeconomic environment on MERCOSUR\'s exports is examined in a dynamic panel analysis. A simulation study based on a quite comprehensive evaluation of EU trade barriers is performed for the Argentinean case in order to evaluate the impact of EU trade liberalisation.MERCOSUR-EU trade trade barriers sectoral study panel data

On the Relationship Between Exchange Rates and Interest Rates: Evidence from the Southern Cone

This paper provides a closer view on the interaction of exchange rate volatility and interest rate volatility in the Mercosur countries. We discuss several models that explain systematic correlations between the movements of both variables and their seconCurrency union, exchange rate and interest rate variability, volatility trade-off, Mercosur