A dynamic network model with persistent links and node-specific latent variables, with an application to the interbank market

We propose a dynamic network model where two mechanisms control the probability of a link between two nodes: (i) the existence or absence of this link in the past, and (ii) node-specific latent variables (dynamic fitnesses) describing the propensity of each node to create links. Assuming a Markov dynamics for both mechanisms, we propose an Expectation-Maximization algorithm for model estimation and inference of the latent variables. The estimated parameters and fitnesses can be used to forecast the presence of a link in the future. We apply our methodology to the e-MID interbank network for which the two linkage mechanisms are associated with two different trading behaviors in the process of network formation, namely preferential trading and trading driven by node-specific characteristics. The empirical results allow to recognise preferential lending in the interbank market and indicate how a method that does not account for time-varying network topologies tends to overestimate preferential linkage.Comment: 19 pages, 6 figure

Sub-structural Niching in Estimation of Distribution Algorithms

We propose a sub-structural niching method that fully exploits the problem decomposition capability of linkage-learning methods such as the estimation of distribution algorithms and concentrate on maintaining diversity at the sub-structural level. The proposed method consists of three key components: (1) Problem decomposition and sub-structure identification, (2) sub-structure fitness estimation, and (3) sub-structural niche preservation. The sub-structural niching method is compared to restricted tournament selection (RTS)--a niching method used in hierarchical Bayesian optimization algorithm--with special emphasis on sustained preservation of multiple global solutions of a class of boundedly-difficult, additively-separable multimodal problems. The results show that sub-structural niching successfully maintains multiple global optima over large number of generations and does so with significantly less population than RTS. Additionally, the market share of each of the niche is much closer to the expected level in sub-structural niching when compared to RTS