Nonparametric bounds on the returns to language skills

This paper applies the theoretical literature on nonparametric bounds on treatment effects to the estimation of how limited English proficiency (LEP) affects wages and employment opportunities for Hispanic workers in the United States. I analyze the identifying power of several weak assumptions on treatment response and selection, and stress the interactions between LEP and education, occupation and immigration status. I show that the combination of two weak but credible assumptions provides informative upper bounds on the returns to language skills for certain subgroups of the population. Adding age at arrival as a monotone instrumental variable also provides informative lower bounds.Nonparametric bounds, language skills, Hispanic workers, labor market outcomes

Single mothers and incentives to work: The French experience

This paper analyzes the effect of the 1998 reform of the French single parents allowance on the labor supply of single mothers with very young children. The reform aimed at encouraging participation by allowing eligible single parents to accumulate benefits and labor earnings for a limited period of time. Using data from the French Employment Survey, the analysis shows that single mothers affected by the reform had experienced a significant increase in their employment rate four years after the reform was implemented. During the same period, the employment rate of married mothers with young children did not experience a significant change, suggesting that at least part of the increase was a consequence of the reform. These results provide some evidence that benefit schedules that provide financial incentives to work can have significant effects in getting single moms back to work, even in the presence of very young children.Single mothers, labor supply, welfare benefits

The determinants of the prevalence of single mothers: A cross-country analysis

This paper examines the effect of public assistance, labor market and marriage market conditions on the prevalence of single mother families across countries and over time. A multinomial logit derived from a random utility approach is estimated using individuallevel data for 14 countries. I find evidence that increases in the level of public support are significantly and positively associated with a higher incidence of both never married and divorced mothers. The results also suggest that single mothers are more prevalent when female wages are lower. Higher male earnings and employment opportunities in a woman’s marriage market appear to lead to fewer never married mothers, but more divorced mothers. Higher child support or alimony payments are associated with a higher prevalence of divorced mothers.Single mothers, marriage, fertility, welfare benefits, marriage markets

The housing boom and forest fires

This paper provides evidence that the combination of land-use restrictions and an increasing demand for housing can create incentives to induce forest fires as a means to circumvent regulation and increase the supply of land available for residential construction. I estimate the effect of the price of housing on the incidence of forest fires using Spanish data by region for 1991-2005. The results suggest that higher house prices led to a significant increase in the incidence of forest fires in a region. I also find that the increased incidence of forest fires led to a subsequent reduction in forest area and an increase in urban land area. This evidence supports the claims often found in the media that property speculators trying to build in forest land may be behind the recent increases in the incidence of forest fires in Mediterranean countries.Forest fires, housing prices, land-use change

Immigration and Housing Booms: Evidence from Spain

We estimate empirically the effect of immigration on house prices and residential construction activity in Spain over the period 1998-2008. This decade is characterized by both a spectacular housing market boom and a stunning immigration wave. We exploit the variation in immigration across Spanish provinces and construct an instrument based on the historical location patterns of immigrants by country of origin. The evidence points to a sizeable causal effect of immigration on both prices and quantities in the housing market. Between 1998 and 2008, the average Spanish province received an immigrant inflow equal to 17% of the initial working-age population. We estimate that this inflow increased house prices by about 52% and is responsible for 37% of the total construction of new housing units during the period. These figures imply that immigration can account for roughly one third of the housing boom, both in terms of prices and new construction.Housing market, Immigration, House prices, Construction, Spain

The Long Term Effects of Legalizing Divorce on Children

We estimate the effect of divorce legalization on the long-term well-being of children. Our identification strategy relies on exploiting the different timing of divorce legalization across European countries. Using European Community Household Panel data, we compare the adult outcomes of cohorts who were raised in an environment where divorce was banned with cohorts raised after divorce was legalized in the same country. We also have "control" countries where all cohorts were exposed (or not exposed) to divorce as children, thus leading to a difference-in-differences approach. We find that women who grew up under legal divorce have lower earnings and income as well as worse health as adults compared with women who grew up under illegal divorce. These effects are not found for men. We find no effects of divorce legalization on children's family formation or dissolution patterns.divorce, legislation, intergenerational effects, child outcomes

The Risk of Divorce and Household Saving Behavior

We analyze the impact of an increase in the risk of divorce on the saving behaviour of married couples. From a theoretical perspective, the expected sign of the effect is ambiguous. We take advantage of the legalization of divorce in Ireland in 1996 as an exogenous increase in the likelihood of marital dissolution. We analyze the saving behaviour over time of couples who were married before the law was passed. We propose a difference-in-differences approach where we use as comparison groups either married couples in other European countries (not affected by the law change), or Irish families who did not experience a significant increase in the expected risk of divorce (such as very religious families, or single individuals). Our results suggest that the increase in the risk of divorce brought about by the law was followed by an increase in the propensity to save of married couples, consistent with a rise in precautionary savings interpretation. An increase in the risk of marital dissolution of about 40 percent led to a 7 to 13 percent rise in the proportion of married couples reporting positive savings.divorce, saving, marriage, divorce law

Targeting Fertility and Female Participation Through the Income Tax

We evaluate the effect of a 2003 reform in the Spanish income tax on fertility and the employment of mothers with small children. The reform introduced a tax credit for working mothers with children under the age of three, while also increasing child deductions for all households with children. Theoretically, given the interplay of these two components, the expected effect of the reform is ambiguous on both outcomes. We find that the combined reforms significantly increased both fertility (by almost five percent) and the employment rate of mothers with children under three (by two percent). These effects were more pronounced among less-educated women. In addition, to disentangle the impact of the two reform components, we use an earlier reform that increased child deductions in 1999. We find that the child deductions affect mothers' employment negatively, which implies that the 2003 tax credit would have increased employment even more (up to five percent) in the absence of the change in child deductions.child subsidy, tax credit, female labor force participation, fertility, family policy

How do very open economies adjust to large immigration flows? Recent evidence from Spanish regions

In recent years, Spain has received unprecedented immigration flows. Between 2001 and 2006 the fraction of the population born abroad more than doubled, increasing from 4.8% to 10.8%. For Spanish provinces with above-median inflows (relative to population), immigration increased by 24% the number of high school dropouts while only increasing college graduates by 11%. We study different channels by which regional labor markets have absorbed the large increase in relative supply of low educated workers. We identify the exogenous supply shock using historical immigrant settlement patterns by country of origin. Using data from the Labor Force Survey and the decennial Census, we find a large expansion of employment in high immigration regions. Disaggregating by industry, the absorption operated through large increases in the share of low-educated workers, compared to the same industry in low-immigration regions. We do not find changes in sectoral specialization. Overall, and perhaps surprisingly, the pattern of absorption is very similar to the one found in the US.Immigration, Open Economies, Rybcszynski, Instrumental Variables

Targeting fertility and female participation through the income tax

We evaluate the effect of a 2003 reform in the Spanish income tax on fertility and the employment of mothers with small children. The reform introduced a tax credit for working mothers with children under the age of three, while also increasing child deductions for all households with children. Theoretically, given the interplay of these two components, the expected effect of the reform is ambiguous on both outcomes. We find that the combined reforms significantly increased both fertility (by almost five percent) and the employment rate of mothers with children under three (by two percent). These effects were more pronounced among less-educated women. In addition, to disentangle the impact of the two reform components, we use an earlier reform that increased child deductions in 1999. We find that the child deductions affect mothers’ employment negatively, which implies that the 2003 tax credit would have increased employment even more (up to five percent) in the absence of the change in child deductions.Female labor force participation, fertility, family policy, tax credit, child subsidy