Ensemble Committees for Stock Return Classification and Prediction

This paper considers a portfolio trading strategy formulated by algorithms in the field of machine learning. The profitability of the strategy is measured by the algorithm's capability to consistently and accurately identify stock indices with positive or negative returns, and to generate a preferred portfolio allocation on the basis of a learned model. Stocks are characterized by time series data sets consisting of technical variables that reflect market conditions in a previous time interval, which are utilized produce binary classification decisions in subsequent intervals. The learned model is constructed as a committee of random forest classifiers, a non-linear support vector machine classifier, a relevance vector machine classifier, and a constituent ensemble of k-nearest neighbors classifiers. The Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS) is used to explore the ensemble model's efficacy within the context of various fields of investment including Energy, Materials, Financials, and Information Technology. Data from 2006 to 2012, inclusive, are considered, which are chosen for providing a range of market circumstances for evaluating the model. The model is observed to achieve an accuracy of approximately 70% when predicting stock price returns three months in advance.Comment: 15 pages, 4 figures, Neukom Institute Computational Undergraduate Research prize - second plac

Distributed Learning in Wireless Sensor Networks

The problem of distributed or decentralized detection and estimation in applications such as wireless sensor networks has often been considered in the framework of parametric models, in which strong assumptions are made about a statistical description of nature. In certain applications, such assumptions are warranted and systems designed from these models show promise. However, in other scenarios, prior knowledge is at best vague and translating such knowledge into a statistical model is undesirable. Applications such as these pave the way for a nonparametric study of distributed detection and estimation. In this paper, we review recent work of the authors in which some elementary models for distributed learning are considered. These models are in the spirit of classical work in nonparametric statistics and are applicable to wireless sensor networks.Comment: Published in the Proceedings of the 42nd Annual Allerton Conference on Communication, Control and Computing, University of Illinois, 200