Learning and Predicting Dynamic Behavior with Graphical Multiagent Models

Factored models of multiagent systems address the complexity of joint behavior by exploiting locality in agent interactions. History-dependent graphical multiagent models (hGMMs) further capture dynamics by conditioning behavior on history. The challenges of modeling real human behavior motivated us to extend the hGMM representation by distinguishing two types of agent interactions. This distinction opens the opportunity for learning dependence networks that are different from given graphical structures representing observed agent interactions. We propose a greedy algorithm for learning hGMMs from time-series data, inducing both graphical structure and parameters. Our empirical study employs human-subject experiment data for a dynamic consensus scenario, where agents on a network attempt to reach a unanimous vote. We show that the learned hGMMs directly expressing joint behavior outperform alternatives in predicting dynamic human voting behavior, and end-game vote results. Analysis of learned graphical structures reveals patterns of action dependence not directly reflected in the original experiment networks

Learning the Structure and Parameters of Large-Population Graphical Games from Behavioral Data

We consider learning, from strictly behavioral data, the structure and parameters of linear influence games (LIGs), a class of parametric graphical games introduced by Irfan and Ortiz (2014). LIGs facilitate causal strategic inference (CSI): Making inferences from causal interventions on stable behavior in strategic settings. Applications include the identification of the most influential individuals in large (social) networks. Such tasks can also support policy-making analysis. Motivated by the computational work on LIGs, we cast the learning problem as maximum-likelihood estimation (MLE) of a generative model defined by pure-strategy Nash equilibria (PSNE). Our simple formulation uncovers the fundamental interplay between goodness-of-fit and model complexity: good models capture equilibrium behavior within the data while controlling the true number of equilibria, including those unobserved. We provide a generalization bound establishing the sample complexity for MLE in our framework. We propose several algorithms including convex loss minimization (CLM) and sigmoidal approximations. We prove that the number of exact PSNE in LIGs is small, with high probability; thus, CLM is sound. We illustrate our approach on synthetic data and real-world U.S. congressional voting records. We briefly discuss our learning framework's generality and potential applicability to general graphical games.Comment: Journal of Machine Learning Research. (accepted, pending publication.) Last conference version: submitted March 30, 2012 to UAI 2012. First conference version: entitled, Learning Influence Games, initially submitted on June 1, 2010 to NIPS 201

Can bounded and self-interested agents be teammates? Application to planning in ad hoc teams

Planning for ad hoc teamwork is challenging because it involves agents collaborating without any prior coordination or communication. The focus is on principled methods for a single agent to cooperate with others. This motivates investigating the ad hoc teamwork problem in the context of self-interested decision-making frameworks. Agents engaged in individual decision making in multiagent settings face the task of having to reason about other agents’ actions, which may in turn involve reasoning about others. An established approximation that operationalizes this approach is to bound the infinite nesting from below by introducing level 0 models. For the purposes of this study, individual, self-interested decision making in multiagent settings is modeled using interactive dynamic influence diagrams (I-DID). These are graphical models with the benefit that they naturally offer a factored representation of the problem, allowing agents to ascribe dynamic models to others and reason about them. We demonstrate that an implication of bounded, finitely-nested reasoning by a self-interested agent is that we may not obtain optimal team solutions in cooperative settings, if it is part of a team. We address this limitation by including models at level 0 whose solutions involve reinforcement learning. We show how the learning is integrated into planning in the context of I-DIDs. This facilitates optimal teammate behavior, and we demonstrate its applicability to ad hoc teamwork on several problem domains and configurations

PocketCare: Tracking the Flu with Mobile Phones using Partial Observations of Proximity and Symptoms

Mobile phones provide a powerful sensing platform that researchers may adopt to understand proximity interactions among people and the diffusion, through these interactions, of diseases, behaviors, and opinions. However, it remains a challenge to track the proximity-based interactions of a whole community and then model the social diffusion of diseases and behaviors starting from the observations of a small fraction of the volunteer population. In this paper, we propose a novel approach that tries to connect together these sparse observations using a model of how individuals interact with each other and how social interactions happen in terms of a sequence of proximity interactions. We apply our approach to track the spreading of flu in the spatial-proximity network of a 3000-people university campus by mobilizing 300 volunteers from this population to monitor nearby mobile phones through Bluetooth scanning and to daily report flu symptoms about and around them. Our aim is to predict the likelihood for an individual to get flu based on how often her/his daily routine intersects with those of the volunteers. Thus, we use the daily routines of the volunteers to build a model of the volunteers as well as of the non-volunteers. Our results show that we can predict flu infection two weeks ahead of time with an average precision from 0.24 to 0.35 depending on the amount of information. This precision is six to nine times higher than with a random guess model. At the population level, we can predict infectious population in a two-week window with an r-squared value of 0.95 (a random-guess model obtains an r-squared value of 0.2). These results point to an innovative approach for tracking individuals who have interacted with people showing symptoms, allowing us to warn those in danger of infection and to inform health researchers about the progression of contact-induced diseases

Adaptive Decision Support for Academic Course Scheduling Using Intelligent Software Agents

Academic course scheduling is a complex operation that requires the interaction between different users including instructors and course schedulers to satisfy conflicting constraints in an optimal manner. Traditionally, this problem has been addressed as a constraint satisfaction problem where the constraints are stationary over time. In this paper, we address academic course scheduling as a dynamic decision support problem using an agent-enabled adaptive decision support system. In this paper, we describe the Intelligent Agent Enabled Decision Support (IAEDS) system, which employs software agents to assist humans in making strategic decisions under dynamic and uncertain conditions. The IAEDS system has a layered architecture including different components such as a learning engine that uses historic data to improve decision-making and an intelligent applet base that provides graphical interface templates to users for frequently requested decision-making tasks. We illustrate an application of our IAEDS system where agents are used to make complex scheduling decisions in a dynamically changing environment

The role of Artificial Intelligence and Distributed computing in IoT applications

[ES] La serie «El rol de la inteligencia artificial y la computación distribuida en las aplicaciones IoT» contiene publicaciones sobre la teoría y aplicaciones de la computación distribuida y la inteligencia artificial en el Internet de las cosas. Prácticamente todas las disciplinas como la ingeniería, las ciencias naturales, la informática y las ciencias de la información, las TIC, la economía, los negocios, el comercio electrónico, el medio ambiente, la salud y las ciencias de la vida están cubiertas. La lista de temas abarca todas las áreas de los sistemas inteligentes modernos y la informática como: inteligencia computacional, soft computing incluyendo redes neuronales, inteligencia social, inteligencia ambiental, sistemas auto-organizados y adaptativos, computación centrada en el ser humano y centrada en el ser humano, sistemas de recomendación, control inteligente, robótica y mecatrónica, incluida la colaboración entre el ser humano y la máquina, paradigmas basados en el conocimiento, paradigmas de aprendizaje, ética de la máquina, análisis inteligente de datos, gestión del conocimiento, agentes inteligentes, toma de decisiones inteligentes y apoyo, seguridad de la red inteligente, gestión de la confianza, entretenimiento interactivo, inteligencia de la Web y multimedia. Las publicaciones en el marco de «El rol de la inteligencia artificial y la computación distribuida en las aplicaciones IoT» son principalmente las actas de seminarios, simposios y conferencias. Abarcan importantes novedades recientes en la materia, tanto de naturaleza fundacional como aplicable. Un importante rasgo característico de la serie es el corto tiempo de publicación. Esto permite una rápida y amplia difusión de los resultados de las investigaciones[EN] The series «The Role of Artificial Intelligence and Distributed Computing in IoT Applications» contains publications on the theory and applications of distributed computing and artificial intelligence in the Internet of Things. Virtually all disciplines such as engineering, natural sciences, computer and information sciences, ICT, economics, business, e-commerce, environment, health and life sciences are covered. The list of topics covers all areas of modern intelligent systems and computer science: computational intelligence, soft computing including neural networks, social intelligence, ambient intelligence, self-organising and adaptive systems, human-centred and people-centred computing, recommendation systems, intelligent control, robotics and mechatronics including human-machine collaboration, knowledge-based paradigms, learning paradigms, machine ethics, intelligent data analysis, knowledge management, intelligent agents, intelligent decision making and support, intelligent network security, trust management, interactive entertainment, web intelligence, and multimedia. The publications in the framework of «The Role of Artificial Intelligence and Distributed Computing in IoT Applications» are mainly the proceedings of seminars, symposia and conferences. They cover important recent developments in the field, whether of a foundational or applicable character. An important feature of the series is the short publication time. This allows for the rapid and wide dissemination of research results

The role of Artificial Intelligence and distributed computing in IoT applications

[EN]The exchange of ideas between scientists and technicians, from both academic and business areas, is essential in order to ease the development of systems which can meet the demands of today’s society. Technology transfer in this field is still a challenge and, for that reason, this type of contributions are notably considered in this compilation. This book brings in discussions and publications concerning the development of innovative techniques of IoT complex problems. The technical program focuses both on high quality and diversity, with contributions in well-established and evolving areas of research. Specifically, 10 chapters were submitted to this book. The editors particularly encouraged and welcomed contributions on AI and distributed computing in IoT applications.Financed by regional government of Castilla y León and FEDER funds

Modeling social norms in real-world agent-based simulations

Studying and simulating social systems including human groups and societies can be a complex problem. In order to build a model that simulates humans\u27 actions, it is necessary to consider the major factors that affect human behavior. Norms are one of these factors: social norms are the customary rules that govern behavior in groups and societies. Norms are everywhere around us, from the way people handshake or bow to the clothes they wear. They play a large role in determining our behaviors. Studies on norms are much older than the age of computer science, since normative studies have been a classic topic in sociology, psychology, philosophy and law. Various theories have been put forth about the functioning of social norms. Although an extensive amount of research on norms has been performed during the recent years, there remains a significant gap between current models and models that can explain real-world normative behaviors. Most of the existing work on norms focuses on abstract applications, and very few realistic normative simulations of human societies can be found. The contributions of this dissertation include the following: 1) a new hybrid technique based on agent-based modeling and Markov Chain Monte Carlo is introduced. This method is used to prepare a smoking case study for applying normative models. 2) This hybrid technique is described using category theory, which is a mathematical theory focusing on relations rather than objects. 3) The relationship between norm emergence in social networks and the theory of tipping points is studied. 4) A new lightweight normative architecture for studying smoking cessation trends is introduced. This architecture is then extended to a more general normative framework that can be used to model real-world normative behaviors. The final normative architecture considers cognitive and social aspects of norm formation in human societies. Normative architectures based on only one of these two aspects exist in the literature, but a normative architecture that effectively includes both of these two is missing