Long Term Motion Prediction Using Keyposes

Long term human motion prediction is essential in safety-critical applications such as human-robot interaction and autonomous driving. In this paper we show that to achieve long term forecasting, predicting human pose at every time instant is unnecessary. Instead, it is more effective to predict a few keyposes and approximate intermediate ones by linearly interpolating the keyposes. We will demonstrate that our approach enables us to predict realistic motions for up to 5 seconds in the future, which is far larger than the typical 1 second encountered in the literature. Furthermore, because we model future keyposes probabilistically, we can generate multiple plausible future motions by sampling at inference time. Over this extended time period, our predictions are more realistic, more diverse and better preserve the motion dynamics than those state-of-the-art methods yield.Comment: Code publicly available at: https://github.com/senakicir/KeyposePredictio

DE-TGN: Uncertainty-Aware Human Motion Forecasting using Deep Ensembles

Ensuring the safety of human workers in a collaborative environment with robots is of utmost importance. Although accurate pose prediction models can help prevent collisions between human workers and robots, they are still susceptible to critical errors. In this study, we propose a novel approach called deep ensembles of temporal graph neural networks (DE-TGN) that not only accurately forecast human motion but also provide a measure of prediction uncertainty. By leveraging deep ensembles and employing stochastic Monte-Carlo dropout sampling, we construct a volumetric field representing a range of potential future human poses based on covariance ellipsoids. To validate our framework, we conducted experiments using three motion capture datasets including Human3.6M, and two human-robot interaction scenarios, achieving state-of-the-art prediction error. Moreover, we discovered that deep ensembles not only enable us to quantify uncertainty but also improve the accuracy of our predictions

Diagnostic Spatio-temporal Transformer with Faithful Encoding

This paper addresses the task of anomaly diagnosis when the underlying data generation process has a complex spatio-temporal (ST) dependency. The key technical challenge is to extract actionable insights from the dependency tensor characterizing high-order interactions among temporal and spatial indices. We formalize the problem as supervised dependency discovery, where the ST dependency is learned as a side product of multivariate time-series classification. We show that temporal positional encoding used in existing ST transformer works has a serious limitation in capturing higher frequencies (short time scales). We propose a new positional encoding with a theoretical guarantee, based on discrete Fourier transform. We also propose a new ST dependency discovery framework, which can provide readily consumable diagnostic information in both spatial and temporal directions. Finally, we demonstrate the utility of the proposed model, DFStrans (Diagnostic Fourier-based Spatio-temporal Transformer), in a real industrial application of building elevator control