Learning Multimodal Transition Dynamics for Model-Based Reinforcement Learning

In this paper we study how to learn stochastic, multimodal transition dynamics in reinforcement learning (RL) tasks. We focus on evaluating transition function estimation, while we defer planning over this model to future work. Stochasticity is a fundamental property of many task environments. However, discriminative function approximators have difficulty estimating multimodal stochasticity. In contrast, deep generative models do capture complex high-dimensional outcome distributions. First we discuss why, amongst such models, conditional variational inference (VI) is theoretically most appealing for model-based RL. Subsequently, we compare different VI models on their ability to learn complex stochasticity on simulated functions, as well as on a typical RL gridworld with multimodal dynamics. Results show VI successfully predicts multimodal outcomes, but also robustly ignores these for deterministic parts of the transition dynamics. In summary, we show a robust method to learn multimodal transitions using function approximation, which is a key preliminary for model-based RL in stochastic domains.Comment: Scaling Up Reinforcement Learning (SURL) Workshop @ European Machine Learning Conference (ECML

Bayesian Semisupervised Learning with Deep Generative Models

Neural network based generative models with discriminative components are a powerful approach for semi-supervised learning. However, these techniques a) cannot account for model uncertainty in the estimation of the model's discriminative component and b) lack flexibility to capture complex stochastic patterns in the label generation process. To avoid these problems, we first propose to use a discriminative component with stochastic inputs for increased noise flexibility. We show how an efficient Gibbs sampling procedure can marginalize the stochastic inputs when inferring missing labels in this model. Following this, we extend the discriminative component to be fully Bayesian and produce estimates of uncertainty in its parameter values. This opens the door for semi-supervised Bayesian active learning

Uncertainty Decomposition in Bayesian Neural Networks with Latent Variables

Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) with latent variables are probabilistic models which can automatically identify complex stochastic patterns in the data. We describe and study in these models a decomposition of predictive uncertainty into its epistemic and aleatoric components. First, we show how such a decomposition arises naturally in a Bayesian active learning scenario by following an information theoretic approach. Second, we use a similar decomposition to develop a novel risk sensitive objective for safe reinforcement learning (RL). This objective minimizes the effect of model bias in environments whose stochastic dynamics are described by BNNs with latent variables. Our experiments illustrate the usefulness of the resulting decomposition in active learning and safe RL settings.Comment: This article is superseded by arXiv:1710.0728

The Potential of the Return Distribution for Exploration in RL

This paper studies the potential of the return distribution for exploration in deterministic reinforcement learning (RL) environments. We study network losses and propagation mechanisms for Gaussian, Categorical and Gaussian mixture distributions. Combined with exploration policies that leverage this return distribution, we solve, for example, a randomized Chain task of length 100, which has not been reported before when learning with neural networks.Comment: Published at the Exploration in Reinforcement Learning Workshop at the 35th International Conference on Machine Learning, Stockholm, Swede

Unsupervised Video Object Segmentation for Deep Reinforcement Learning

We present a new technique for deep reinforcement learning that automatically detects moving objects and uses the relevant information for action selection. The detection of moving objects is done in an unsupervised way by exploiting structure from motion. Instead of directly learning a policy from raw images, the agent first learns to detect and segment moving objects by exploiting flow information in video sequences. The learned representation is then used to focus the policy of the agent on the moving objects. Over time, the agent identifies which objects are critical for decision making and gradually builds a policy based on relevant moving objects. This approach, which we call Motion-Oriented REinforcement Learning (MOREL), is demonstrated on a suite of Atari games where the ability to detect moving objects reduces the amount of interaction needed with the environment to obtain a good policy. Furthermore, the resulting policy is more interpretable than policies that directly map images to actions or values with a black box neural network. We can gain insight into the policy by inspecting the segmentation and motion of each object detected by the agent. This allows practitioners to confirm whether a policy is making decisions based on sensible information

Variational Inference for Data-Efficient Model Learning in POMDPs

Partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) are a powerful abstraction for tasks that require decision making under uncertainty, and capture a wide range of real world tasks. Today, effective planning approaches exist that generate effective strategies given black-box models of a POMDP task. Yet, an open question is how to acquire accurate models for complex domains. In this paper we propose DELIP, an approach to model learning for POMDPs that utilizes amortized structured variational inference. We empirically show that our model leads to effective control strategies when coupled with state-of-the-art planners. Intuitively, model-based approaches should be particularly beneficial in environments with changing reward structures, or where rewards are initially unknown. Our experiments confirm that DELIP is particularly effective in this setting

ADAPT: Zero-Shot Adaptive Policy Transfer for Stochastic Dynamical Systems

Model-free policy learning has enabled robust performance of complex tasks with relatively simple algorithms. However, this simplicity comes at the cost of requiring an Oracle and arguably very poor sample complexity. This renders such methods unsuitable for physical systems. Variants of model-based methods address this problem through the use of simulators, however, this gives rise to the problem of policy transfer from simulated to the physical system. Model mismatch due to systematic parameter shift and unmodelled dynamics error may cause sub-optimal or unsafe behavior upon direct transfer. We introduce the Adaptive Policy Transfer for Stochastic Dynamics (ADAPT) algorithm that achieves provably safe and robust, dynamically-feasible zero-shot transfer of RL-policies to new domains with dynamics error. ADAPT combines the strengths of offline policy learning in a black-box source simulator with online tube-based MPC to attenuate bounded model mismatch between the source and target dynamics. ADAPT allows online transfer of policy, trained solely in a simulation offline, to a family of unknown targets without fine-tuning. We also formally show that (i) ADAPT guarantees state and control safety through state-action tubes under the assumption of Lipschitz continuity of the divergence in dynamics and, (ii) ADAPT results in a bounded loss of reward accumulation relative to a policy trained and evaluated in the source environment. We evaluate ADAPT on 2 continuous, non-holonomic simulated dynamical systems with 4 different disturbance models, and find that ADAPT performs between 50%-300% better on mean reward accrual than direct policy transfer.Comment: International Symposium on Robotics Research (ISRR), 201

Multimodal Probabilistic Model-Based Planning for Human-Robot Interaction

This paper presents a method for constructing human-robot interaction policies in settings where multimodality, i.e., the possibility of multiple highly distinct futures, plays a critical role in decision making. We are motivated in this work by the example of traffic weaving, e.g., at highway on-ramps/off-ramps, where entering and exiting cars must swap lanes in a short distance---a challenging negotiation even for experienced drivers due to the inherent multimodal uncertainty of who will pass whom. Our approach is to learn multimodal probability distributions over future human actions from a dataset of human-human exemplars and perform real-time robot policy construction in the resulting environment model through massively parallel sampling of human responses to candidate robot action sequences. Direct learning of these distributions is made possible by recent advances in the theory of conditional variational autoencoders (CVAEs), whereby we learn action distributions simultaneously conditioned on the present interaction history, as well as candidate future robot actions in order to take into account response dynamics. We demonstrate the efficacy of this approach with a human-in-the-loop simulation of a traffic weaving scenario

Robust and Efficient Transfer Learning with Hidden-Parameter Markov Decision Processes

We introduce a new formulation of the Hidden Parameter Markov Decision Process (HiP-MDP), a framework for modeling families of related tasks using low-dimensional latent embeddings. Our new framework correctly models the joint uncertainty in the latent parameters and the state space. We also replace the original Gaussian Process-based model with a Bayesian Neural Network, enabling more scalable inference. Thus, we expand the scope of the HiP-MDP to applications with higher dimensions and more complex dynamics.Comment: To appear at NIPS 2017, selected for an oral presentation. 17 pages (incl references and appendix). Example code can be found at http://github.com/dtak/hip-mdp-publi

Efficient exploration with Double Uncertain Value Networks

This paper studies directed exploration for reinforcement learning agents by tracking uncertainty about the value of each available action. We identify two sources of uncertainty that are relevant for exploration. The first originates from limited data (parametric uncertainty), while the second originates from the distribution of the returns (return uncertainty). We identify methods to learn these distributions with deep neural networks, where we estimate parametric uncertainty with Bayesian drop-out, while return uncertainty is propagated through the Bellman equation as a Gaussian distribution. Then, we identify that both can be jointly estimated in one network, which we call the Double Uncertain Value Network. The policy is directly derived from the learned distributions based on Thompson sampling. Experimental results show that both types of uncertainty may vastly improve learning in domains with a strong exploration challenge.Comment: Deep Reinforcement Learning Symposium @ Conference on Neural Information Processing Systems (NIPS) 201