Generalization bound for estimating causal effects from observational network data

Estimating causal effects from observational network data is a significant but challenging problem. Existing works in causal inference for observational network data lack an analysis of the generalization bound, which can theoretically provide support for alleviating the complex confounding bias and practically guide the design of learning objectives in a principled manner. To fill this gap, we derive a generalization bound for causal effect estimation in network scenarios by exploiting 1) the reweighting schema based on joint propensity score and 2) the representation learning schema based on Integral Probability Metric (IPM). We provide two perspectives on the generalization bound in terms of reweighting and representation learning, respectively. Motivated by the analysis of the bound, we propose a weighting regression method based on the joint propensity score augmented with representation learning. Extensive experimental studies on two real-world networks with semi-synthetic data demonstrate the effectiveness of our algorithm

Estimation of individual causal effects in network setup for multiple treatments

We study the problem of estimation of Individual Treatment Effects (ITE) in the context of multiple treatments and networked observational data. Leveraging the network information, we aim to utilize hidden confounders that may not be directly accessible in the observed data, thereby enhancing the practical applicability of the strong ignorability assumption. To achieve this, we first employ Graph Convolutional Networks (GCN) to learn a shared representation of the confounders. Then, our approach utilizes separate neural networks to infer potential outcomes for each treatment. We design a loss function as a weighted combination of two components: representation loss and Mean Squared Error (MSE) loss on the factual outcomes. To measure the representation loss, we extend existing metrics such as Wasserstein and Maximum Mean Discrepancy (MMD) from the binary treatment setting to the multiple treatments scenario. To validate the effectiveness of our proposed methodology, we conduct a series of experiments on the benchmark datasets such as BlogCatalog and Flickr. The experimental results consistently demonstrate the superior performance of our models when compared to baseline methods.Comment: 7 pages, accepted at AAAI-GCLR 202

Inferring Causal Effects Under Heterogeneous Peer Influence

Causal inference in networks should account for interference, which occurs when a unit's outcome is influenced by treatments or outcomes of peers. There can be heterogeneous peer influence between units when a unit's outcome is subjected to variable influence from different peers based on their attributes and relationships, or when each unit has a different susceptibility to peer influence. Existing solutions to causal inference under interference consider either homogeneous influence from peers or specific heterogeneous influence mechanisms (e.g., based on local neighborhood structure). This paper presents a methodology for estimating individual causal effects in the presence of heterogeneous peer influence due to arbitrary mechanisms. We propose a structural causal model for networks that can capture arbitrary assumptions about network structure, interference conditions, and causal dependence. We identify potential heterogeneous contexts using the causal model and propose a novel graph neural network-based estimator to estimate individual causal effects. We show that existing state-of-the-art methods for individual causal effect estimation produce biased results in the presence of heterogeneous peer influence, and that our proposed estimator is robust

Regression adjustments for estimating the global treatment effect in experiments with interference

Standard estimators of the global average treatment effect can be biased in the presence of interference. This paper proposes regression adjustment estimators for removing bias due to interference in Bernoulli randomized experiments. We use a fitted model to predict the counterfactual outcomes of global control and global treatment. Our work differs from standard regression adjustments in that the adjustment variables are constructed from functions of the treatment assignment vector, and that we allow the researcher to use a collection of any functions correlated with the response, turning the problem of detecting interference into a feature engineering problem. We characterize the distribution of the proposed estimator in a linear model setting and connect the results to the standard theory of regression adjustments under SUTVA. We then propose an estimator that allows for flexible machine learning estimators to be used for fitting a nonlinear interference functional form. We propose conducting statistical inference via bootstrap and resampling methods, which allow us to sidestep the complicated dependences implied by interference and instead rely on empirical covariance structures. Such variance estimation relies on an exogeneity assumption akin to the standard unconfoundedness assumption invoked in observational studies. In simulation experiments, our methods are better at debiasing estimates than existing inverse propensity weighted estimators based on neighborhood exposure modeling. We use our method to reanalyze an experiment concerning weather insurance adoption conducted on a collection of villages in rural China.Comment: 38 pages, 7 figure

Deep Learning of Potential Outcomes

This review systematizes the emerging literature for causal inference using deep neural networks under the potential outcomes framework. It provides an intuitive introduction on how deep learning can be used to estimate/predict heterogeneous treatment effects and extend causal inference to settings where confounding is non-linear, time varying, or encoded in text, networks, and images. To maximize accessibility, we also introduce prerequisite concepts from causal inference and deep learning. The survey differs from other treatments of deep learning and causal inference in its sharp focus on observational causal estimation, its extended exposition of key algorithms, and its detailed tutorials for implementing, training, and selecting among deep estimators in Tensorflow 2 available at github.com/kochbj/Deep-Learning-for-Causal-Inference