28,033 research outputs found
Probabilistic Methodology and Techniques for Artefact Conception and Development
The purpose of this paper is to make a state of the art on probabilistic methodology and techniques for artefact conception and development. It is the 8th deliverable of the BIBA (Bayesian Inspired Brain and Artefacts) project. We first present the incompletness problem as the central difficulty that both living creatures and artefacts have to face: how can they perceive, infer, decide and act efficiently with incomplete and uncertain knowledge?. We then introduce a generic probabilistic formalism called Bayesian Programming. This formalism is then used to review the main probabilistic methodology
and techniques. This review is organized in 3 parts: first the probabilistic models from Bayesian networks to Kalman filters and from sensor fusion to CAD systems, second the inference techniques and finally the learning and model acquisition and comparison methodologies. We conclude with the perspectives of the BIBA project as they rise from this state of the art
Conditional probability estimation
This paper studies in particular an aspect of the estimation of conditional probability distributions by maximum likelihood that seems to have been overlooked in the literature on Bayesian networks: The information conveyed by the conditioning event should be included in the likelihood function as well
The Neural Particle Filter
The robust estimation of dynamically changing features, such as the position
of prey, is one of the hallmarks of perception. On an abstract, algorithmic
level, nonlinear Bayesian filtering, i.e. the estimation of temporally changing
signals based on the history of observations, provides a mathematical framework
for dynamic perception in real time. Since the general, nonlinear filtering
problem is analytically intractable, particle filters are considered among the
most powerful approaches to approximating the solution numerically. Yet, these
algorithms prevalently rely on importance weights, and thus it remains an
unresolved question how the brain could implement such an inference strategy
with a neuronal population. Here, we propose the Neural Particle Filter (NPF),
a weight-less particle filter that can be interpreted as the neuronal dynamics
of a recurrently connected neural network that receives feed-forward input from
sensory neurons and represents the posterior probability distribution in terms
of samples. Specifically, this algorithm bridges the gap between the
computational task of online state estimation and an implementation that allows
networks of neurons in the brain to perform nonlinear Bayesian filtering. The
model captures not only the properties of temporal and multisensory integration
according to Bayesian statistics, but also allows online learning with a
maximum likelihood approach. With an example from multisensory integration, we
demonstrate that the numerical performance of the model is adequate to account
for both filtering and identification problems. Due to the weightless approach,
our algorithm alleviates the 'curse of dimensionality' and thus outperforms
conventional, weighted particle filters in higher dimensions for a limited
number of particles
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