Consistency of Feature Markov Processes

We are studying long term sequence prediction (forecasting). We approach this by investigating criteria for choosing a compact useful state representation. The state is supposed to summarize useful information from the history. We want a method that is asymptotically consistent in the sense it will provably eventually only choose between alternatives that satisfy an optimality property related to the used criterion. We extend our work to the case where there is side information that one can take advantage of and, furthermore, we briefly discuss the active setting where an agent takes actions to achieve desirable outcomes.Comment: 16 LaTeX page

A conversion between utility and information

Rewards typically express desirabilities or preferences over a set of alternatives. Here we propose that rewards can be defined for any probability distribution based on three desiderata, namely that rewards should be real-valued, additive and order-preserving, where the latter implies that more probable events should also be more desirable. Our main result states that rewards are then uniquely determined by the negative information content. To analyze stochastic processes, we define the utility of a realization as its reward rate. Under this interpretation, we show that the expected utility of a stochastic process is its negative entropy rate. Furthermore, we apply our results to analyze agent-environment interactions. We show that the expected utility that will actually be achieved by the agent is given by the negative cross-entropy from the input-output (I/O) distribution of the coupled interaction system and the agent's I/O distribution. Thus, our results allow for an information-theoretic interpretation of the notion of utility and the characterization of agent-environment interactions in terms of entropy dynamics.Comment: AGI-2010. 6 pages, 1 figur

Compositional Semantic Parsing on Semi-Structured Tables

Two important aspects of semantic parsing for question answering are the breadth of the knowledge source and the depth of logical compositionality. While existing work trades off one aspect for another, this paper simultaneously makes progress on both fronts through a new task: answering complex questions on semi-structured tables using question-answer pairs as supervision. The central challenge arises from two compounding factors: the broader domain results in an open-ended set of relations, and the deeper compositionality results in a combinatorial explosion in the space of logical forms. We propose a logical-form driven parsing algorithm guided by strong typing constraints and show that it obtains significant improvements over natural baselines. For evaluation, we created a new dataset of 22,033 complex questions on Wikipedia tables, which is made publicly available

The bees algorithm: Modelling nature to solve complex optimisation problems

The Bees Algorithm models the foraging behaviour of honey bees in order to solve optimisation problems. The algorithm performs a kind of exploitative neighbourhood search combined with random explorative search. This paper describes the Bees Algorithm and presents two application examples: the training of neural networks to predict the energy efficiency of buildings, and the solution of the protein folding problem. The Bees Algorithm proved its effectiveness and speed, and obtained very competitive modelling accuracies compared with other state-of-the-art methods

Reasoning About Pragmatics with Neural Listeners and Speakers

We present a model for pragmatically describing scenes, in which contrastive behavior results from a combination of inference-driven pragmatics and learned semantics. Like previous learned approaches to language generation, our model uses a simple feature-driven architecture (here a pair of neural "listener" and "speaker" models) to ground language in the world. Like inference-driven approaches to pragmatics, our model actively reasons about listener behavior when selecting utterances. For training, our approach requires only ordinary captions, annotated _without_ demonstration of the pragmatic behavior the model ultimately exhibits. In human evaluations on a referring expression game, our approach succeeds 81% of the time, compared to a 69% success rate using existing techniques

Online Learning of k-CNF Boolean Functions

This paper revisits the problem of learning a k-CNF Boolean function from examples in the context of online learning under the logarithmic loss. In doing so, we give a Bayesian interpretation to one of Valiant's celebrated PAC learning algorithms, which we then build upon to derive two efficient, online, probabilistic, supervised learning algorithms for predicting the output of an unknown k-CNF Boolean function. We analyze the loss of our methods, and show that the cumulative log-loss can be upper bounded, ignoring logarithmic factors, by a polynomial function of the size of each example.Comment: 20 LaTeX pages. 2 Algorithms. Some Theorem