Evaluation of the economic and environmental performance of low-temperature heat to power conversion using a reverse electrodialysis - Multi-effect distillation system

In the examined heat engine, reverse electrodialysis (RED) is used to generate electricity from the salinity difference between two artificial solutions. The salinity gradient is restored through a multi-effect distillation system (MED) powered by low-temperature waste heat at 100 ◦C. The current work presents the first comprehensive economic and environmental analysis of this advanced concept, when varying the number of MED effects, the system sizing, the salt of the solutions, and other key parameters. The levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) has been calculated, showing that competitive solutions can be reached only when the system is at least medium to large scale. The lowest LCOE, at about 0.03 €/kWh, is achieved using potassium acetate salt and six MED effects while reheating the solutions. A similar analysis has been conducted when using the system in energy storage mode, where the two regenerated solutions are stored in reservoir tanks and the RED is operating for a few hours per day, supplying valuable peak power, resulting in a LCOE just below 0.10 €/kWh. A life-cycle assessment has been also carried out, showing that the case with the lowest environmental impact is the same as the one with the most attractive economic performance. Results indicate that the material manufacturing has the main impact; primarily the metallic parts of the MED. Overall, this study highlights the development efforts required in terms of both membrane performance and cost reduction, in order to make this technology cost effective in the future

Evaluating the economic return to public wind energy research and development in the United States

The U.S. government has invested in wind energy research since 1976. Building on a literature that has sought to develop and apply methods for retrospective benefit-to-cost evaluation for federal research programs, this study provides a quantitative analysis of the economic social return on these historical wind energy research investments. Importantly, the study applies multiple innovative methods and varies important input parameters to test the sensitivity of the results. The analysis considers public wind research expenditures and U.S. wind power deployment over the period 1976–2017, while also accounting for the full useful lifetime of wind projects built over this period. Assessed benefits include energy cost savings and health benefits due to reductions in air pollution. Overall, this analysis demonstrates sizable, positive economic returns on past wind energy research. Under the core analysis and with a 3% real discount rate, the net benefits from historical federal wind energy research investments are found to equal $31.4 billion, leading to an 18 to 1 benefit-to-cost ratio and an internal rate of return of 15.4%. Avoided carbon dioxide emissions are not valued in monetary terms, but are estimated at 1510 million metric tons. Alternative methods and input assumptions yield benefit-to-cost ratios that fall within a relatively narrow range from 7-to-1 to 21-to-1, reinforcing in broad terms the general finding of a sizable positive return on investment. Unsurprisingly, results are sensitive to the chosen discount rate, with higher discount rates leading to lower benefit-to-cost ratios, and lower discount rates yielding higher benefit-to-cost ratios

Massachusetts Offshore Wind Future Cost Study

The Special Initiative on Offshore Wind is an independent project at the University of Delaware's College of Earth, Ocean and Environment that supports the advancement of offshore wind as part of a comprehensive solution to the most pressing energy problems facing the United States.  The Special Initiative on Offshore Wind provides expertise, analysis, information sharing, and strategic partnership with industry, advocacy and government stakeholders to build understanding and drive the deployment of offshore wind

Geospatial multi-criteria analysis for identifying high priority clean energy investment opportunities: A case study on land-use conflict in Bangladesh

Bangladesh is a globally important emerging economy with rapidly increasing energy demand. The Bangladeshi government's primary capacity expansion plan is to install 13.3 GW of new coal by 2021, including the 1.3 GW Rampal coal power plant to be developed in the Sundarbans. Inadequate geospatial and economic information on clean energy investment opportunities are often a significant barrier for policy makers. Our study helps fill this gap by applying a new method to assess energy investment opportunities, with focus on understanding land-use conflicts, particularly important in this context as Bangladesh is constrained on land for agriculture, human settlements, and ecological preservation. By extending a geospatial multi-criteria analysis model (MapRE) we analyze the cost of various renewable energy generation technologies based on resource availability and key siting criteria such as proximity to transmission and exclusion from steep slopes, dense settlements or ecologically sensitive areas. We find there is more utility-scale solar potential than previously estimated, which can be developed at lower costs than coal power and with minimal cropland tradeoff. We also find significant potential for decentralized roof-top solar in commercial and residential areas. Even with a conservative land use program that reserves maximum land for agriculture and human settlement, there is more renewable energy capacity than needed to support Bangladeshi growth. This study provides critical and timely information for capacity expansion planning in South Asia and demonstrates the use of geospatial models to support decision-making in data-limited contexts

Impact of CO2 prices on the design of a highly decarbonised coupled electricity and heating system in Europe

Ambitious targets for renewable energy and CO2 taxation both represent political instruments for decarbonisation of the energy system. We model a high number of coupled electricity and heating systems, where the primary sources of CO2 neutral energy are from variable renewable energy sources (VRES), i.e., wind and solar generators. The model includes hourly dispatch of all technologies for a full year for every country in Europe. In each model run, the amount of renewable energy and the level of CO2 tax are fixed exogenously, while the cost-optimal composition of energy generation, conversion, transmission and storage technologies and the corresponding CO2 emissions are calculated. We show that even for high penetrations of VRES, a significant CO2 tax of more than 100 euro/tCO2 is required to limit the combined CO2 emissions from the sectors to less than 5% of 1990 levels, because curtailment of VRES, combustion of fossil fuels and inefficient conversion technologies are economically favoured despite the presence of abundant VRES. A sufficiently high CO2 tax results in the more efficient use of VRES by means of heat pumps and hot water storage, in particular. We conclude that a renewable energy target on its own is not sufficient; in addition, a CO2 tax is required to decarbonise the electricity and heating sectors and incentivise the least cost combination of flexible and efficient energy conversion and storage.Comment: 20 pages and 9 figures in tota

Benchmarking Utility-Scale PV Operational Expenses and Project Lifetimes: Results from a Survey of U.S. Solar Industry Professionals

This paper draws on a survey of solar industry professionals and other sources to clarify trends in the expected useful life and operational expenditure (OpEx) of utility-scale photovoltaic (PV) plants in the United States. Solar project developers, sponsors, long-term owners, and consultants have increased project-life assumptions over time, from an average of ~21.5 years in 2007 to ~32.5 years in 2019. Current assumptions range from 25 years to more than 35 years depending on the organization; 17 out of 19 organizations surveyed or reviewed use 30 years or more. Levelized, lifetime OpEx estimates have declined from an average of ~$35/kWDC-yr for projects built in 2007 to an average of ~$17/kWDC-yr in 2019. Across 13 sources, the range in average lifetime OpEx for projects built in 2019 is broad, from $13 to$25/kWDC-yr. Operations and maintenance (O&M) costs—one component of OpEx—have declined precipitously in recent years, to $5-8/kWDC-yr in many cases. Property taxes and land lease costs are highly variable across sites, but on average are—together—of similar magnitude. Other OpEx line items include security, insurance, and asset management. Given 2007-2009 values for not only project life and OpEx but also other drivers of the levelized cost of energy (LCOE, excluding the investment tax credit), the LCOE for utility-scale PV projects built from 2007 through 2009 averaged$305/MWh. Using 2019 values for all parameters yields an average LCOE of $51/MWh. The decline in LCOE from$305/MWh to $51/MWh was predominantly caused by reductions in up-front expenditures (and, to a much lesser extent, by changes in capacity factors, financing costs, and tax rates), but 9$22/MWh) of the overall decline is due to improvements in project life and OpEx. Project life extensions and OpEx reductions have had similarly sized impacts on LCOE over this period, at $11/MWh each. Had project life and OpEx not improved over the last decade, LCOE in 2019 would have instead been$73/MWh—43% higher. Given the limited quantity and comparability of previously available data on these cost drivers, the data and trends presented here may inform assumptions used by electric system planners, modelers, and analysts. The results may also provide useful benchmarks to the solar industry, helping developers and assets owners compare their expectations for project life and OpEx with those of their peers

Identifying opportunities for developing CSP and PV-CSP hybrid projects under current tender conditions and market perspectives in MENA – benchmarking with PV-CCGT

Concentrating solar power (CSP) is one of the promising renewable energy technologies provided the fact that it is equipped with a cost-efficient storage system, thermal energy storage (TES). This solves the issue of intermittency of other renewable energy technologies and gives the advantage of achieving higher capacity factors and lower levelized costs of electricity (LCOE). This is the main reason why solar tower power plants (STPP) with molten salts and integrated TES are considered one of the most promising CSP technologies in the short term [1]. On the other hand, solar photovoltaic (PV) is a technology whose costs have been decreasing and are expected to continue doing so thus providing competitive LCOE values, but with relatively low capacity factors as electrical storage systems remain not cost-effective. Combining advantages and eliminating drawbacks of both technologies (CSP and PV), Hybridized PV-CSP power plants can be deemed as a competitive economic solution to offer firm output power when CSP is operated smartly so that its load is regulated in response to the PV output. Indeed previous works, have identified that it would allow achieving lower LCOEs than stand-alone CSP plants by means of allowing it to better utilize the solar field for storing energy during the daytime while PV is used [1]. On the fossil-based generation side, the gas turbine combined cycle (CCGT) occupies an outstanding position among power generation technologies. This is due to the fact that it is considered the most efficient fossil fuel-to-electricity converter, in addition to the maturity of such technology, high flexibility, and the generally low LCOE, which is largely dominated by fuel cost and varies depending on the natural gas price at a specific location. Obviously, the main drawback is the generated carbon emissions. In countries rich in natural gas resources and with vast potential for renewable energies implementation, such as the United Arab Emirates (UAE), abandoning a low LCOE technology with competitively low emissions – compared to coal or oil - and heading to costly pure renewable generation, seems like an aggressive plan. Therefore, hybridizing CCGT with renewable generation can be considered an attractive option for reducing emissions at reasonable costs. This is the case of the UAE with vast resources of both natural gas and solar energy. Previous work have shown the advantages of hybrid PV-CCGT and hybrid PV-CSP plants separately [1][2]. In this thesis, CSP and the two hybrid systems are compared on the basis of LCOE and CO2 emissions for a same firm-power capacity factor when considering a location in the UAE. The results are compared against each other to highlight the benefits of each technology from both environmental and economic standpoints and provide recommendations for future work in the field. The techno-economic analysis of CSP (STPP with TES), PV-CSP(STPP with TES) and PV-CCGT power plants have been performed by DYESOPT, an in-house tool developed in KTH, which runs techno-economic performance evaluation of power plants through multi-objective optimization for specific locations[1]. For this thesis, a convenient location in the UAE was chosen for simulating the performance of the plants. The UAE is endowed by the seventh-largest proven natural gas reserves and average to high global horizontal irradiation (GHI) and direct normal irradiation (DNI) values all year round, values considered to be lower than other countries in the MENA region due to its high aerosol concentrations and sand storms. The plants were designed to provide firm power in two cases, first as baseload, and second as intermediate load of 15 hours from 6:00 until 21:00. The hours of production were selected based on a typical average daily load profile. CSP and PV-CSP model previously developed by [3][1] were used. Ideally in the PV-CSP model, during daytime hours the PV generation is used for electricity production, covering the desired load, while CSP is used partly for electricity production and the rest for storing energy in the TES. Energy in the TES system is then used to supply firm power during both periods of low Irradiance and night hours or according to need. A PV-CCGT model has been developed which operates simultaneously, prioritizing the availability of PV while the CCGT fulfils the remaining requirement. There is a minimum loading for the CCGT plant which is determined by the minimum possible partial loading of the gas turbine restricted by the emission constraints. Accordingly, in some cases during operation PV is chosen to be curtailed due to this limitation. The main results of the techno-economic analysis are concluded in the comparative analysis of the 3 proposed power plant configurations, where the PV-CCGT plant is the most economic with minimum LCOE of 86 USD/MWh, yet, the least preferable option in terms of carbon emissions. CSP and PV-CSP provided higher LCOE, while the PV-CSP plant configuration met the same capacity factor with 11% reduction in LCOE, compared to CSP

Opportunities for and challenges to further reductions in the “specific power” rating of wind turbines installed in the United States

A wind turbine’s “specific power” rating relates its capacity to the swept area of its rotor in terms of Watt per square meter. For a given generator capacity, specific power declines as rotor size increases. In land-rich but capacity-constrained wind power markets, such as the United States, developers have an economic incentive to maximize megawatt-hours per constrained megawatt, and so have favored turbines with ever-lower specific power. To date, this trend toward lower specific power has pushed capacity factors higher while reducing the levelized cost of energy. We employ geospatial levelized cost of energy analysis across the United States to explore whether this trend is likely to continue. We find that under reasonable cost scenarios (i.e. presuming that logistical challenges from very large blades are surmountable), low-specific-power turbines could continue to be in demand going forward. Beyond levelized cost of energy, the boost in market value that low-specific-power turbines provide could become increasingly important as wind penetration grows