Early Warning Analysis for Social Diffusion Events

There is considerable interest in developing predictive capabilities for social diffusion processes, for instance to permit early identification of emerging contentious situations, rapid detection of disease outbreaks, or accurate forecasting of the ultimate reach of potentially viral ideas or behaviors. This paper proposes a new approach to this predictive analytics problem, in which analysis of meso-scale network dynamics is leveraged to generate useful predictions for complex social phenomena. We begin by deriving a stochastic hybrid dynamical systems (S-HDS) model for diffusion processes taking place over social networks with realistic topologies; this modeling approach is inspired by recent work in biology demonstrating that S-HDS offer a useful mathematical formalism with which to represent complex, multi-scale biological network dynamics. We then perform formal stochastic reachability analysis with this S-HDS model and conclude that the outcomes of social diffusion processes may depend crucially upon the way the early dynamics of the process interacts with the underlying network's community structure and core-periphery structure. This theoretical finding provides the foundations for developing a machine learning algorithm that enables accurate early warning analysis for social diffusion events. The utility of the warning algorithm, and the power of network-based predictive metrics, are demonstrated through an empirical investigation of the propagation of political memes over social media networks. Additionally, we illustrate the potential of the approach for security informatics applications through case studies involving early warning analysis of large-scale protests events and politically-motivated cyber attacks

Reach Set Approximation through Decomposition with Low-dimensional Sets and High-dimensional Matrices

Approximating the set of reachable states of a dynamical system is an algorithmic yet mathematically rigorous way to reason about its safety. Although progress has been made in the development of efficient algorithms for affine dynamical systems, available algorithms still lack scalability to ensure their wide adoption in the industrial setting. While modern linear algebra packages are efficient for matrices with tens of thousands of dimensions, set-based image computations are limited to a few hundred. We propose to decompose reach set computations such that set operations are performed in low dimensions, while matrix operations like exponentiation are carried out in the full dimension. Our method is applicable both in dense- and discrete-time settings. For a set of standard benchmarks, it shows a speed-up of up to two orders of magnitude compared to the respective state-of-the art tools, with only modest losses in accuracy. For the dense-time case, we show an experiment with more than 10.000 variables, roughly two orders of magnitude higher than possible with previous approaches

Predictive Analysis for Social Processes II: Predictability and Warning Analysis

This two-part paper presents a new approach to predictive analysis for social processes. Part I identifies a class of social processes, called positive externality processes, which are both important and difficult to predict, and introduces a multi-scale, stochastic hybrid system modeling framework for these systems. In Part II of the paper we develop a systems theory-based, computationally tractable approach to predictive analysis for these systems. Among other capabilities, this analytic methodology enables assessment of process predictability, identification of measurables which have predictive power, discovery of reliable early indicators for events of interest, and robust, scalable prediction. The potential of the proposed approach is illustrated through case studies involving online markets, social movements, and protest behavior

Multi-scale modeling of follicular ovulation as a reachability problem

During each ovarian cycle, only a definite number of follicles ovulate, while the others undergo a degeneration process called atresia. We have designed a multi-scale mathematical model where ovulation and atresia result from a hormonal controlled selection process. A 2D-conservation law describes the age and maturity structuration of the follicular cell population. In this paper, we focus on the operating mode of the control, through the study of the characteristics of the conservation law. We describe in particular the set of microscopic initial conditions leading to the macroscopic phenomenon of either ovulation or atresia, in the framework of backwards reachable sets theory