Geospatial Analysis of Land Use Change in Way Kuripan Watershed, Bandar Lampung City

The purpose of the study is to analyze land use and land cover change impact on Way Kuripan discharge. Six scenarios of land use and land cover changes at Way Kuripan watershed area of 53.54 km² was developed based on geospatial analysis with Geographic Information System. Peak discharge is calculated by using rational method. From the six scenarios simulation, scenarios 1, 2, 3, and 4 maintained the protected areas of 80.15%. Land use and land cover changes done by changing areas from vacant land and agricultural areas to be residential, industrial and government office areas. From the analysis, peak discharge of scenarios 1, 2, 3, and 4 change slightly which are between 11.19% and 23.46%. These results are in contrast to scenarios 5 and 6, in which scenario 5 keep the protected areas about 53.35% while in scenario 6 left the protected areas around 30%. Those protected areas changed into residential areas. The result showed that in scenario 5, the peak discharge changed about 66.29%. While in scenario 6, it changed about 107.19%. It can be concluded that the existence of protected areas in Way Kuripan Watershed was very important role to reduce the peak discharge values

Land Use Change and Recommendation for Sustainable Development of Peatland for Agriculture: Case Study at Kubu Raya and Pontianak Districts, West Kalimantan

Peatland is an increasingly important land resource for livelihood, economic development, and terrestrial carbon storage. Kubu Raya and Pontianak Districts of West Kalimantan rely their future agricultural development on this environmentally fragile peatland because of the dominance (58% and 16% area, respectively) of this land in the two districts. A study aimed to evaluate land use changes on peatland and to develop strategies for sustainable peatland use and management for agriculture. Time series satellite imageries of land use and land cover, ground truthing, and statistical data of land use change were analyzed for generating the dynamics of land use changes in the period of 1986-2008. Field observation, peat sampling, and peat analyses of representative land use types were undertaken to assess peat characteristics and its agricultural suitability. The study showed that within 22 years (1986-2008), the area of peat forests in Kubu Raya and Pontianak Districts decreased as much as 13.6% from 391,902 ha to 328,078 ha. The current uses of the peatland in the two districts include oil palm plantation (8704 ha), smallholder rubber plantation (13,186 ha), annual crops (15,035 ha), mixed cropping of trees and annual crops (22,328 ha), and pineapple farming (11,744 ha). Our evaluation showed unconformity of the current uses of peatland with regulations and crops agronomic requirements such as peat thickness and maturity, rendering unsustainability. This study recommends that expansion of agriculture and plantation on peatland areas be limited over idle land within the agricultural production and conversion production forest areas. About 34,362 ha (9.7%) of uncultivated log-over forest and shrubs can potentially be developed for agriculture. Peat soils with the thickness of >3 m should be allocated for conservation or forest protection due to low inherent soil fertility and high potential greenhouse gas emissions if converted for agriculture

Land Use Change in Indonesia

With an estimated loss of up to 20 million ha of forest over the past decade, deforestation in Indonesia has come to the forefront of global environmental concerns. Indonesia is one of the most important areas of tropical forests worldwide. In addition to providing a multitude of benefits locally, including both products and services, these forests are also of global importance because of their biodiversity and the carbon they sequester. Despite the benefits they provide, Indonesia’s forests have been under considerable threat in past decades, and the extent of forest cover has declined considerably. This paper takes advantage of new data on the extent and distribution of forest cover change in Indonesia to examine its causes and effects. The paper begins by summarizing the long-term trends in land use change in Indonesia, and the new data on loss of forest cover during the period 1985-1997. It then discusses why this land use change is likely to be undesirable in many cases. Land use change can at times be beneficial, but there are good reasons to believe that current patterns of land use change in Indonesia are in fact socially sub-optimal. The paper then reviews the incentives faced by the major actors in land use change—loggers, estate crop producers, and smallholders—and the reasons their decisions concerning land use change, while privately optimal, are likely to be socially sub-optimal. It also briefly examines the effect that the East Asian financial crisis has had on these incentives. Particular attention is paid to mangrove forests, because of their important ecological role.Deforestation, Land Use, Biodiversity, Environmental Services, Indonesia

Land-Use Change and Carbon Sinks

When and if the United States chooses to implement a greenhouse gas reduction program, it will be necessary to decide whether carbon sequestration policies — such as those that promote forestation and discourage deforestation — should be part of the domestic portfolio of compliance activities. We investigate the cost of forest-based carbon sequestration. In contrast with previous approaches, we econometrically examine micro-data on revealed landowner preferences, modeling six major private land uses in a comprehensive analysis of the contiguous United States. The econometric estimates are used to simulate landowner responses to sequestration policies. Key commodity prices are treated as endogenous and a carbon sink model is used to predict changes in carbon storage. Our estimated marginal costs of carbon sequestration are greater than those from previous engineering cost analyses and sectoral optimization models. Our estimated sequestration supply function is similar to the carbon abatement supply function from energy-based analyses, suggesting that forest-based carbon sequestration merits inclusion in a cost-effective portfolio of domestic U.S. climate change strategies.abatement; carbon; climate change; costs; forestry; greenhouse gases; land use; landuse change; sequestration

ARTMAP Neural Network Classification of Land Use Change

The ability to detect and monitor changes in land use is essential for assessment of the sustainability of development. In the next decade, NASA will gather high-resolution multi-spectral and multi-temporal data, which could be used for detecting and monitoring long-term changes. Existing methods are insufficient for detecting subtle long-term changes from high-dimensional data. This project employs neural network architectures as alternatives to conventional systems for classifying changes in the status of agricultural lands from a sequence of satellite images. Landsat TM imagery of the Nile River delta provides a testbed for these land use change classification methods. A sequence often images was taken, at various times of year, from 1984 to 1993. Field data were collected during the summer of 1993 at88 sites in the Nile Delta and surrounding desert areas. Ground truth data for 231 additional sites were determined by expert site assessment at the Boston University Center for Remote Sensing. The field observations are grouped into classes including urban, reduced productivity agriculture, agriculture in delta, desert/coast reclamation, wetland reclamation, and agriculture in desert/coast. Reclamation classes represent land use changes. A particular challenge posed by this database is the unequal representation of various land use categories: urban and agriculture in delta pixels comprise the vast majority of the ground truth data available in the database. A new, two-step training data selection method was introduced to enable unbiased training of neural network systems on sites with unequal numbers of pixels. Data were successfully classified by using multi-date feature vectors containing data from all of the available satellite images as inputs to the neural network system.National Science Foundation Graduate Fellowship; National Science Foundation (SBR 95-13889); Office of Naval Research (N00014-95-I-409, N00014-95-0657); Air Force Office of Scientific Research (F49620-0l-1-0397)

Analyzing Land Use Change In Urban Environments

This four-page fact sheet provides a brief summary of the analysis of land use in urban environments. Topics include the rapid growth in urban populations, some of the methods used to analyze land use change (mapping, databases, time series documents), and some of the concerns and possible consequences created by the rapid shift of human populations to urban centers. Educational levels: High school, Undergraduate lower division, Undergraduate upper division, Graduate or professional

Land-use change and carbon stocks: regional assessment of sugarcane areas in Brazil.

Abstract: In agricultural product Life Cycle Assessment (LCA), emissions or removals of carbon (C) from land-use change can highly affect the global warming. The aim of this study was to evaluate the impacts of biomass C values and stock change factors on land use change (LUC) emissions in areas of sugarcane expansion in Brazil. In this study, we used stratified random sample in order to estimate changes in land cover through geotechnologies and associated C stocks from literature data. For that, the total area was stratified by three criteria: soil type, % of native vegetation in 1998 and age of sugarcane plantation in 2018. The sample size represented 12.8% of the studied area (172,000 ha). To this end, a matrix of primary combinations was combined with spatial data such as land cover in 1998, soil types, biomes and Köppen climate classification. Estimates of C stock changes in soil and biomass were calculated the Stock-Difference Method, according to IPCC Guidelines and specialized literature. Respecting the uncertainties, this approach allowed to have an estimate of C balance in sugarcane fields at the regional level in Brazil. Three main recommendations: (i) values of FMG> 1.0 (FMG, stock change factor for management regime), should be used for sugarcane, but future research ratification is necessary; (ii) biomass C values of sugarcane biomass above 5 tonnes C ha-1 should be used, especially when sugarcane is harvested without burning; and (iii) as there is still no relationship between level of pasture degradation and C content in soil, biomass C values and pasture FMG should be carefully chosen in pasture conversion to sugarcane

The EU, the WTO and indirect land use change

Efforts to meet the European Union’s (EU) alternative energy targets have resulted in increased production of biofuels. This production has resulted in deforestation-related emissions through displacement of agricultural production, a problem known as indirect land-use change. The European Commission (EC) has proposed regulatory options to respond to this problem, but all risk not being in conformity with World Trade Organization (WTO) law.Trade law challenges result from the underlying methodological uncertainty, and the attempt to address a systemic problem on the level of individual producers.Yet, this does not necessarily indicate that the intent of these regulations is to protect EU markets.Thus, this is an instructive case study to examine the relationship between WTO law and complex, emerging environmental problems

Land Use Change: A Spatial Multinomial Choice Analysis

Urban decentralization and dispersion trends have led to increased conversion of rural lands in many urban peripheries and exurban regions of the U.S. The growth of the exurban areas has outpaced growth in urban and suburban areas, resulting in growth pressures at the urban-rural fringe. A thorough analysis of land use change patterns and the ability to predict these changes are necessary for the effective design of regional environmental, growth, and development policies. We estimate a multinomial discrete choice model with spatial dependence using parcel-level data from Medina County, Ohio. Accounting for spatial dependence should result in improved statistical inference about land use changes. Our spatial model extends the binary choice “linearized logit” model of Klier and McMillen (2008) to a multinomial setting. A small Monte Carlo simulation indicates that this estimator performs reasonably well. Preliminary results suggest that the location of new urban development is guided by a preference over lower density areas, yet in proximity to current urban development. In addition, we find significant evidence of spatial dependence in land use decisions.Land Use Change, Multinomial Logit, Spatial Dependence, Community/Rural/Urban Development, Land Economics/Use, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods, R14, C21, C25,

An open and extensible framework for spatially explicit land use change modelling in R: the lulccR package (0.1.0)

Land use change has important consequences for biodiversity and the sustainability of ecosystem services, as well as for global environmental change. Spatially explicit land use change models improve our understanding of the processes driving change and make predictions about the quantity and location of future and past change. Here we present the lulccR package, an object-oriented framework for land use change modelling written in the R programming language. The contribution of the work is to resolve the following limitations associated with the current land use change modelling paradigm: (1) the source code for model implementations is frequently unavailable, severely compromising the reproducibility of scientific results and making it impossible for members of the community to improve or adapt models for their own purposes; (2) ensemble experiments to capture model structural uncertainty are difficult because of fundamental differences between implementations of different models; (3) different aspects of the modelling procedure must be performed in different environments because existing applications usually only perform the spatial allocation of change. The package includes a stochastic ordered allocation procedure as well as an implementation of the widely used CLUE-S algorithm. We demonstrate its functionality by simulating land use change at the Plum Island Ecosystems site, using a dataset included with the package. It is envisaged that lulccR will enable future model development and comparison within an open environment