Optimal change-point estimation from indirect observations

We study nonparametric change-point estimation from indirect noisy observations. Focusing on the white noise convolution model, we consider two classes of functions that are smooth apart from the change-point. We establish lower bounds on the minimax risk in estimating the change-point and develop rate optimal estimation procedures. The results demonstrate that the best achievable rates of convergence are determined both by smoothness of the function away from the change-point and by the degree of ill-posedness of the convolution operator. Optimality is obtained by introducing a new technique that involves, as a key element, detection of zero crossings of an estimate of the properly smoothed second derivative of the underlying function.Comment: Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/009053605000000750 in the Annals of Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aos/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

From discretization to regularization of composite discontinuous functions

Discontinuities between distinct regions, described by different equation sets, cause difficulties for PDE/ODE solvers. We present a new algorithm that eliminates integrator discontinuities through regularizing discontinuities. First, the algorithm determines the optimum switch point between two functions spanning adjacent or overlapping domains. The optimum switch point is determined by searching for a “jump point” that minimizes a discontinuity between adjacent/overlapping functions. Then, discontinuity is resolved using an interpolating polynomial that joins the two discontinuous functions. This approach eliminates the need for conventional integrators to either discretize and then link discontinuities through generating interpolating polynomials based on state variables or to reinitialize state variables when discontinuities are detected in an ODE/DAE system. In contrast to conventional approaches that handle discontinuities at the state variable level only, the new approach tackles discontinuity at both state variable and the constitutive equations level. Thus, this approach eliminates errors associated with interpolating polynomials generated at a state variable level for discontinuities occurring in the constitutive equations. Computer memory space requirements for this approach exponentially increase with the dimension of the discontinuous function hence there will be limitations for functions with relatively high dimensions. Memory availability continues to increase with price decreasing so this is not expected to be a major limitation

Supervised Random Walks: Predicting and Recommending Links in Social Networks

Predicting the occurrence of links is a fundamental problem in networks. In the link prediction problem we are given a snapshot of a network and would like to infer which interactions among existing members are likely to occur in the near future or which existing interactions are we missing. Although this problem has been extensively studied, the challenge of how to effectively combine the information from the network structure with rich node and edge attribute data remains largely open. We develop an algorithm based on Supervised Random Walks that naturally combines the information from the network structure with node and edge level attributes. We achieve this by using these attributes to guide a random walk on the graph. We formulate a supervised learning task where the goal is to learn a function that assigns strengths to edges in the network such that a random walker is more likely to visit the nodes to which new links will be created in the future. We develop an efficient training algorithm to directly learn the edge strength estimation function. Our experiments on the Facebook social graph and large collaboration networks show that our approach outperforms state-of-the-art unsupervised approaches as well as approaches that are based on feature extraction

Confidence sets for split points in decision trees

We investigate the problem of finding confidence sets for split points in decision trees (CART). Our main results establish the asymptotic distribution of the least squares estimators and some associated residual sum of squares statistics in a binary decision tree approximation to a smooth regression curve. Cube-root asymptotics with nonnormal limit distributions are involved. We study various confidence sets for the split point, one calibrated using the subsampling bootstrap, and others calibrated using plug-in estimates of some nuisance parameters. The performance of the confidence sets is assessed in a simulation study. A motivation for developing such confidence sets comes from the problem of phosphorus pollution in the Everglades. Ecologists have suggested that split points provide a phosphorus threshold at which biological imbalance occurs, and the lower endpoint of the confidence set may be interpreted as a level that is protective of the ecosystem. This is illustrated using data from a Duke University Wetlands Center phosphorus dosing study in the Everglades.Comment: Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/009053606000001415 in the Annals of Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aos/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org