Causal Parameters and Policy Analysis in Economcs: A Twentieth Century Retrospective

The major contributions of twentieth century econometrics to knowledge were the definition of causal parameters when agents are constrained by resources and markets and causes are interrelated, the analysis of what is required to recover causal parameters from data (the identification problem), and clarification of the role of causal parameters in policy evaluation and in forecasting the effects of policies never previously experienced. This paper summarizes the development of those ideas by the Cowles Commission, the response to their work by structural econometricians and VAR econometricians, and the response to structural and VAR econometrics by calibrators, advocates of natural and social experiments, and by nonparametric econometricians and statisticians.

Personal probabilities of probabilities

By definition, the subjective probability distribution of a random event is revealed by the (‘rational’) subject's choice between bets — a view expressed by F. Ramsey, B. De Finetti, L. J. Savage and traceable to E. Borel and, it can be argued, to T. Bayes. Since hypotheses are not observable events, no bet can be made, and paid off, on a hypothesis. The subjective probability distribution of hypotheses (or of a parameter, as in the current ‘Bayesian’ statistical literature) is therefore a figure of speech, an ‘as if’, justifiable in the limit. Given a long sequence of previous observations, the subjective posterior probabilities of events still to be observed are derived by using a mathematical expression that would approximate the subjective probability distribution of hypotheses, if these could be bet on. This position was taken by most, but not all, respondents to a ‘Round Robin’ initiated by J. Marschak after M. H. De-Groot's talk on Stopping Rules presented at the UCLA Interdisciplinary Colloquium on Mathematics in Behavioral Sciences. Other participants: K. Borch, H. Chernoif, R. Dorfman, W. Edwards, T. S. Ferguson, G. Graves, K. Miyasawa, P. Randolph, L. J. Savage, R. Schlaifer, R. L. Winkler. Attention is also drawn to K. Borch's article in this issue.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/43847/1/11238_2004_Article_BF00169102.pd

Sources of Productivity Change in United States Agriculture

The purpose of this study was to develop and utilize an econometric model to explain productivity growth in the United States agricultural sector over the 1939 to 1972 period. In addition, an attempt was made to explain the observed differential rates of productivity growth among ten farm production regions of the United States. Particular emphasis was placed on examining the role of the public sector in stimulating productivity change in agriculture and evaluating the form of the time lag between public investment in agricultural research and extension activities and the ensuing contribution to agricultural production.Economic

Foundational research in accounting: professional memoirs and beyond

It was with particular pleasure that, several years ago, I accepted the invitation of ChuoUniversity to write a professional, biographical essay about my own experience with accounting. My relation with this university is a long-standing one. Shortly after two of my books, Accounting and Analytical Methods and Simulation of the Firm Through a Budget Computer Program, were published in the USA in 1964, Professor Kenji Aizaki (then at Chuo University) and his former student, Professor Fujio Harada, and later other scholars from Chuo University, began actively promoting my ideas in Japan. And after a two volume Japanese translation of the first of these books was published in 1972 and 1975 (through the mediation of Professor Shinzaburo Koshimura, then President of Yokohama National University), my research found fertile ground in Japan through continuing efforts of three generations of accounting academics from Chuo University. I suppose it is thanks to these endeavours that my efforts became so well known in Japan, and that during some three decades many Japanese accounting professors contacted me either personally or by correspondence. Then from 1988 to 1990 Prof. Yoshiaki Koguchi, again from Chuo University, came as a visiting scholar to the University of British Columbia, audited some of my classes, and became a good friend and collaborator, which further strengthened my ties to this university