4,195 research outputs found
Incorporating statistical model error into the calculation of acceptability prices of contingent claims
The determination of acceptability prices of contingent claims requires the
choice of a stochastic model for the underlying asset price dynamics. Given
this model, optimal bid and ask prices can be found by stochastic optimization.
However, the model for the underlying asset price process is typically based on
data and found by a statistical estimation procedure. We define a confidence
set of possible estimated models by a nonparametric neighborhood of a baseline
model. This neighborhood serves as ambiguity set for a multi-stage stochastic
optimization problem under model uncertainty. We obtain distributionally robust
solutions of the acceptability pricing problem and derive the dual problem
formulation. Moreover, we prove a general large deviations result for the
nested distance, which allows to relate the bid and ask prices under model
ambiguity to the quality of the observed data.Comment: 27 pages, 2 figure
Model and Reinforcement Learning for Markov Games with Risk Preferences
We motivate and propose a new model for non-cooperative Markov game which
considers the interactions of risk-aware players. This model characterizes the
time-consistent dynamic "risk" from both stochastic state transitions (inherent
to the game) and randomized mixed strategies (due to all other players). An
appropriate risk-aware equilibrium concept is proposed and the existence of
such equilibria is demonstrated in stationary strategies by an application of
Kakutani's fixed point theorem. We further propose a simulation-based
Q-learning type algorithm for risk-aware equilibrium computation. This
algorithm works with a special form of minimax risk measures which can
naturally be written as saddle-point stochastic optimization problems, and
covers many widely investigated risk measures. Finally, the almost sure
convergence of this simulation-based algorithm to an equilibrium is
demonstrated under some mild conditions. Our numerical experiments on a two
player queuing game validate the properties of our model and algorithm, and
demonstrate their worth and applicability in real life competitive
decision-making.Comment: 38 pages, 6 tables, 5 figure
Bayesian emulation for optimization in multi-step portfolio decisions
We discuss the Bayesian emulation approach to computational solution of
multi-step portfolio studies in financial time series. "Bayesian emulation for
decisions" involves mapping the technical structure of a decision analysis
problem to that of Bayesian inference in a purely synthetic "emulating"
statistical model. This provides access to standard posterior analytic,
simulation and optimization methods that yield indirect solutions of the
decision problem. We develop this in time series portfolio analysis using
classes of economically and psychologically relevant multi-step ahead portfolio
utility functions. Studies with multivariate currency, commodity and stock
index time series illustrate the approach and show some of the practical
utility and benefits of the Bayesian emulation methodology.Comment: 24 pages, 7 figures, 2 table
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