Efficient likelihood estimation in state space models

Motivated by studying asymptotic properties of the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) in stochastic volatility (SV) models, in this paper we investigate likelihood estimation in state space models. We first prove, under some regularity conditions, there is a consistent sequence of roots of the likelihood equation that is asymptotically normal with the inverse of the Fisher information as its variance. With an extra assumption that the likelihood equation has a unique root for each $n$, then there is a consistent sequence of estimators of the unknown parameters. If, in addition, the supremum of the log likelihood function is integrable, the MLE exists and is strongly consistent. Edgeworth expansion of the approximate solution of likelihood equation is also established. Several examples, including Markov switching models, ARMA models, (G)ARCH models and stochastic volatility (SV) models, are given for illustration.Comment: With the comments by Jens Ledet Jensen and reply to the comments. Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/009053606000000614; http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/09-AOS748A; http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/09-AOS748B in the Annals of Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aos/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Regenerative block empirical likelihood for Markov chains

Empirical likelihood is a powerful semi-parametric method increasingly investigated in the literature. However, most authors essentially focus on an i.i.d. setting. In the case of dependent data, the classical empirical likelihood method cannot be directly applied on the data but rather on blocks of consecutive data catching the dependence structure. Generalization of empirical likelihood based on the construction of blocks of increasing nonrandom length have been proposed for time series satisfying mixing conditions. Following some recent developments in the bootstrap literature, we propose a generalization for a large class of Markov chains, based on small blocks of various lengths. Our approach makes use of the regenerative structure of Markov chains, which allows us to construct blocks which are almost independent (independent in the atomic case). We obtain the asymptotic validity of the method for positive recurrent Markov chains and present some simulation results

Adventures in Invariant Theory

We provide an introduction to enumerating and constructing invariants of group representations via character methods. The problem is contextualised via two case studies arising from our recent work: entanglement measures, for characterising the structure of state spaces for composite quantum systems; and Markov invariants, a robust alternative to parameter-estimation intensive methods of statistical inference in molecular phylogenetics.Comment: 12 pp, includes supplementary discussion of example