Institutional Forecasting: The Performance of Thin Virtual Stock Markets

We study the performance of Virtual Stock Markets (VSMs) in an institutional forecasting environment. We compare VSMs to the Combined Judgmental Forecast (CJF) and the Key Informant (KI) approach. We find that VSMs can be effectively applied in an environment with a small number of knowledgeable informants, i.e., in thin markets. Our results show that none of the three approaches differ in forecasting accuracy in a low knowledge-heterogeneity environment. However, where there is high knowledge-heterogeneity, the VSM approach outperforms the CJF approach, which in turn outperforms the KI approach. Hence, our results provide useful insight into when each of the three approaches might be most effectively applied.Forecasting;Electronic Markets;Information Markets;Virtual Stock Markets

Forecasting Inflation via Experimental Stock Markets Some Results from Pilot Markets

While there are various techniques of inflation forecasting in use, none of them has proved to deliver consistently more accurate forecasts than the others. That is why most users of inflation forecasts monitor a variety of inflation indicators and forecasts and check them for consistency. This paper aims at contributing to an extension of themethods in use. We propose to conduct experimental inflation forecasting markets in order to uncover market participants' inflation expectations. While the markets directly deliver density forecasts of inflation they also allow to construct mean forecasts and a measure of forecast uncertainty. We also present evidence from a number of pilot markets underlining that the proposed method might enrich the arsenal of existing forecastingtechniques.Inflation forecast, field experiments, experimental stock markets.

Assessing Market Expectations on Exchange Rates and Inflation: A Pilot Forecasting System for Bulgaria

Econometric forecasting models typically perform bad in volatile environments as they are often present in economies in transition. Since forecasts of key macroeconomic variable are inevitable as guidelines for economic policy, one might alternatively make attempts at measuring market participants’ expectations or conduct surveys. However, often financial markets are underdeveloped and regular surveys are unavailable in transition countries. In this paper we propose to conduct experimental stock markets to reveal market participants’ expectations. W? present the results fr?m a series of pilot markets conducted in Bulgaria throughout 2002 indicating that the method could be useful especially for transition countries.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/40145/3/wp759.pd

E-logistics of agribusiness organisations

Logistics is one of the most important agribusiness functions due to the idiosyncrasy of food products and the structure of food supply chain. Companies in the food sector typically operate with poor production forecasting, inefficient inventory management, lack of coordination with supply partners. Further, markets are characterised by stern competition, increasing consumer demands and stringent regulation for food quality and safety. Large agribusiness corporations have already turned to e-logistics solutions as a means to sustain competitive advantage and meet consumer demands. There are four types of e-logistics applications: (a) Vertical alliances where supply partners forge long-term strategic alliances based on electronic sharing of critical logistics information such as sales forecasts and inventory volume. Vertical alliances often apply supply chain management (SCM) which is concerned with the relationship between a company and its suppliers and customers. The prime characteristic of SCM is interorganizational coordination: agribusiness companies working jointly with their customers and suppliers to integrate activities along the supply chain to effectively supply food products to customers. E-logistics solutions engender the systematic integration among supply partners by allowing more efficient and automatic information flow. (b) e-tailing, in which retailers give consumers the ability to order food such as groceries from home electronically i.e. using the Internet and the subsequent delivery of those ordered goods at home. (c) Efficient Foodservice Response (EFR), which is a strategy designed to enable foodservice industry to achieve profitable growth by looking at ways to save money for each level of the supply chain by eliminating inefficient practices. EFR provides solutions to common logistics problems, such as transactional inefficiency, inefficient plant scheduling, out-of-stocks, and expedited transportation. (d) Contracting, a means of coordinating procurement of food, beverages and their associated supplies. Many markets and supply chains in agriculture are buyer-driven where the buyers in the market tend to set prices and terms of trade. Those terms can include the use of electronic means of communication to support automatic replenishment of goods, management of supply and inventory. The results of the current applications of e-logistics in food sector are encouraging for Greek agribusiness. Companies need to become aware of and evaluate the value-added by those applications which are a sustainable competitive advantage, optimisation of supply chain flows, and meeting consumer demands and food safety regulations. E-business diffusion has shown that typically first-movers gain a significant competitive advantage and the rest companies either eventually adopt the new systems or see a significant decline in their trading partners and perish. E-logistics solutions typically require huge investments in hardware and software and skilled personnel, which is an overt barrier for most Greek companies. Large companies typically are first-movers but small and medium enterprises (SMEs) need institutional support in order to become aware that e-logistics systems can be fruitful for them as well

Assessing Market Expectations on Exchange Rates and Inflation: A Pilot Forecasting System for Bulgaria

Econometric forecasting models typically perform bad in volatile environments as they are often present in economies in transition. Since forecasts of key macroeconomic variable are inevitable as guidelines for economic policy, one might alternatively make attempts at measuring market participants’ expectations or conduct surveys. However, often financial markets are underdeveloped and regular surveys are unavailable in transition countries. In this paper we propose to conduct experimental stock markets to reveal market participants’ expectations. W? present the results fr?m a series of pilot markets conducted in Bulgaria throughout 2002 indicating that the method could be useful especially for transition countries.forecasting, macroeconomics, inflation, exchange rates, experimental stock markets

Internet diffusion vs. the crisis of the new economy

The diffusion of Internet in the world, both in terms of 'users' and 'information suppliers' is continuously and constantly increasing. This market growth is based on a development that follows the usual behavior of technological innovation diffusion (S-shaped logistic curve), so it is allowed to obtain reliable forecasts about the future market trend. Nevertheless, despite the continuous growth of the 'target', the E-business seems to be in a crucial situation absolutely unpredictable since few moths ago, when viceversa looked as the main driving force of the 'new economy' attacking the boundaries of the 'global market'. The objective of this paper is to analyze the potentialities of the growing market, through the actual and forecasted number of users, and the condition of the general offer, in terms of typology and quality of the services supplied, trying to identify a reason for this crisis. Keywords: Internet, E-business, Global Market, New economy

Business-to-business e-commerce: an innovative tool for food chain management

A supply chain is a network of facilities and distribution options that performs the functions of procurement of materials, transformation of these materials into intermediate and finished goods, and the distribution of the final goods to customers. The management of food chains, particular of fresh produce chains, need to achieve two goals: (a) create efficient physical flows of products by minimising logistics cost, and reducing lead times (b) run an effective value chain by safeguarding mutual gains for all members of the chain, building trust between suppliers and buyers and at the same time maintaining quality for end consumers. Food chain management was always at a loss for tools to leveraging its efforts on achieving value for chain members and eventually the end-consumers. Although food industry, both in USA and Europe, has experimented with various alternative solutions to this multimillion chain management, yet more can be expected. Business-to-business e-commerce (B2B) appears to be an innovative tool that meets the high standards of the industry and the potential growth. This study examines the uses of B2B in food industry to give chain management solutions. It reviews the uses of B2B and, in particular, highlights the applications of B2B by small agribusiness in order to forge their ring in food chains. It builds upon communication in supply chain. It describes contracting as an example how B2B e-commerce can advance supply activities and reports the development of a B2B olive oil supply chain application. It concludes that B2B can be a strong leverage for food chain management to achieve its goals and produce value for the members of the chain and the end consumers

Institutional Forecasting: The Performance of Thin Virtual Stock Markets

We study the performance of Virtual Stock Markets (VSMs) in an institutional forecasting environment. We compare VSMs to the Combined Judgmental Forecast (CJF) and the Key Informant (KI) approach. We find that VSMs can be effectively applied in an environment with a small number of knowledgeable informants, i.e., in thin markets. Our results show that none of the three approaches differ in forecasting accuracy in a low knowledge-heterogeneity environment. However, where there is high knowledge-heterogeneity, the VSM approach outperforms the CJF approach, which in turn outperforms the KI approach. Hence, our results provide useful insight into when each of the three approaches might be most effectively applied