Interim report on Media Analysis

PACHELBEL WP4 “Stimulus Materials” uses findings from WP3 (Policy Assumptions) and from additional sources to prepare stimulus materials for the group-based process to be implemented in WP5. The output, informed by the present report, will be a set of materials to inform and stimulate the group-based process. These will take the form of real or simulated media coverage and/or documentary materials produced by various sources, scenarios, vignettes, and dramatised accounts. Another output, also informed by this report, will be an individual questionnaire for use in the group-based process. The present deliverable is centred on one of the data-gathering and analytic activities set up by WP4 to identify pertinent representational elements that should be included in the future stimulus materials, country by country. “Representational elements” have been defined in WP4 as typical images, anecdotes, examples, and references which are used by policy actors to explain and justify policy choices within the policy domains pertinent to PACHELBEL. Particular attention is given to references made to citizens, their perceptions and behaviours. In Task 4.2, PACHELBEL partners gathered representational elements in their respective contexts. To support this task, a “media analysis” template was developed by WPL SYMLOG for discussion at the second Consortium project meeting (Dorking, Mo. 6). Criteria were agreed for the analysis of a selection of actual publications in a range of media (print periodicals, public information materials disseminated by authorities, etc.). In Summer 2010, partners in each country used the template to analyze and report a sample of several dozen articles in selected policy areas. This interim report (D4.2) recalls methodology (Part 1), presents representational elements country by country (Part 2) and provides a summary overview of similarities and contrasts across country samples (Part 3). Conclusions and next steps are presented in Part 4. Also provided are a simplified media analysis template (Annex 1) and the compiled basic frequency analysis (Annex 2)

On the sample mean after a group sequential trial

A popular setting in medical statistics is a group sequential trial with independent and identically distributed normal outcomes, in which interim analyses of the sum of the outcomes are performed. Based on a prescribed stopping rule, one decides after each interim analysis whether the trial is stopped or continued. Consequently, the actual length of the study is a random variable. It is reported in the literature that the interim analyses may cause bias if one uses the ordinary sample mean to estimate the location parameter. For a generic stopping rule, which contains many classical stopping rules as a special case, explicit formulas for the expected length of the trial, the bias, and the mean squared error (MSE) are provided. It is deduced that, for a fixed number of interim analyses, the bias and the MSE converge to zero if the first interim analysis is performed not too early. In addition, optimal rates for this convergence are provided. Furthermore, under a regularity condition, asymptotic normality in total variation distance for the sample mean is established. A conclusion for naive confidence intervals based on the sample mean is derived. It is also shown how the developed theory naturally fits in the broader framework of likelihood theory in a group sequential trial setting. A simulation study underpins the theoretical findings.Comment: 52 pages (supplementary data file included

Illegal Immigration from Mexico and its Labor Force Implications

An interim analysis of the effect illegal immigration from Mexico on the labor force of the United States

A critical analysis of New Zealand's Psychoactive Substances Act 2013 and its implementation process : a thesis presented in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Public Health at Massey University, Albany, New Zealand

Listed in 2017 Dean's List of Exceptional ThesesIntroduction: In July 2013, the New Zealand Parliament passed the Psychoactive Substances Act (PSA), the world’s first law to regulate the availability of new psychoactive substances (NPS, “legal highs”, LH). Under the “interim PSA regime” 47 products were permitted to be sold subject to new retail and other regulations. In May 2014, the Government abruptly ended the interim regime following public protests. This thesis aims to critically evaluate the PSA and its implementation. Methods: A mixed methods approach combined qualitative and quantitative methods of data collection and analysis. Legal analysis of the PSA and related legislation, and content analysis of parliamentary debates and public submissions were completed. Semi-structured interviews were then conducted with key informants (KI) including politicians, government officials, health professionals, and LH industry actors (n=30). Questions about health perceptions and social acceptability of approved products were added to an annual survey of police arrestees (n=834). Analyses of primary data included thematic analysis of interview transcripts and statistical analysis of data from the arrestee survey. Results: The legal definition of “psychoactive substance” (s. 8, 9(1) PSA) overlaps with other regulatory regimes (e.g. medicines, dietary supplements) resulting in an unclear legal status for some products. Interviewed KIs identified a number of issues with the “interim regime”, including the safety of interim products, speed and efficiency of withdrawing problem products, the lack of regulations on price and retail opening hours, slowness of developing regulations for the full PSA regime, and the effectiveness of communicating the new policy to stakeholders and the public. As the market commercialised, the LH industry adopted business and lobbying strategies previously attributed to the alcohol and tobacco sectors, including targeting vulnerable customers. Surveyed police arrestees considered approved synthetic cannabis (SC) products higher health risk and less socially acceptable than alcohol, tobacco and many illegal drugs, reflecting problems with interim product approvals. The ban on animal testing of prospective products is likely to prevent further implementation of the PSA, unless a new political consensus is achieved. Conclusions: The issues experienced during PSA implementation highlight the significant challenges of establishing a legal market for psychoactive products. The time, resources and planning required to successfully implement the PSA may have been underestimated

A comparison of methods for treatment selection in seamless phase II/III clinical trials incorporating information on short-term endpoints

In an adaptive seamless phase II/III clinical trial interim analysis data are used for treatment selection, enabling resources to be focussed on comparison of more effective treatment(s) with a control. In this paper we compare two methods recently proposed to enable use of short-term endpoint data for decision-making at the interim analysis. The comparison focusses on the power and the probability of correctly identifying the most promising treatment. We show that the choice of method depends on how well short-term data predict the best treatment, which may be measured by the correlation between treatment effects on short-term and long-term endpoints

GLUMIP 2.0: SAS/IML Software for Planning Internal Pilots

Internal pilot designs involve conducting interim power analysis (without interim data analysis) to modify the final sample size. Recently developed techniques have been described to avoid the type~I error rate inflation inherent to unadjusted hypothesis tests, while still providing the advantages of an internal pilot design. We present GLUMIP 2.0, the latest version of our free SAS/IML software for planning internal pilot studies in the general linear univariate model (GLUM) framework. The new analytic forms incorporated into the updated software solve many problems inherent to current internal pilot techniques for linear models with Gaussian errors. Hence, the GLUMIP 2.0 software makes it easy to perform exact power analysis for internal pilots under the GLUM framework with independent Gaussian errors and fixed predictors.