Massively parallel implicit equal-weights particle filter for ocean drift trajectory forecasting

Forecasting of ocean drift trajectories are important for many applications, including search and rescue operations, oil spill cleanup and iceberg risk mitigation. In an operational setting, forecasts of drift trajectories are produced based on computationally demanding forecasts of three-dimensional ocean currents. Herein, we investigate a complementary approach for shorter time scales by using the recently proposed two-stage implicit equal-weights particle filter applied to a simplified ocean model. To achieve this, we present a new algorithmic design for a data-assimilation system in which all components – including the model, model errors, and particle filter – take advantage of massively parallel compute architectures, such as graphical processing units. Faster computations can enable in-situ and ad-hoc model runs for emergency management, and larger ensembles for better uncertainty quantification. Using a challenging test case with near-realistic chaotic instabilities, we run data-assimilation experiments based on synthetic observations from drifting and moored buoys, and analyze the trajectory forecasts for the drifters. Our results show that even sparse drifter observations are sufficient to significantly improve short-term drift forecasts up to twelve hours. With equidistant moored buoys observing only 0.1% of the state space, the ensemble gives an accurate description of the true state after data assimilation followed by a high-quality probabilistic forecast

Review of recent research towards power cable life cycle management

Power cables are integral to modern urban power transmission and distribution systems. For power cable asset managers worldwide, a major challenge is how to manage effectively the expensive and vast network of cables, many of which are approaching, or have past, their design life. This study provides an in-depth review of recent research and development in cable failure analysis, condition monitoring and diagnosis, life assessment methods, fault location, and optimisation of maintenance and replacement strategies. These topics are essential to cable life cycle management (LCM), which aims to maximise the operational value of cable assets and is now being implemented in many power utility companies. The review expands on material presented at the 2015 JiCable conference and incorporates other recent publications. The review concludes that the full potential of cable condition monitoring, condition and life assessment has not fully realised. It is proposed that a combination of physics-based life modelling and statistical approaches, giving consideration to practical condition monitoring results and insulation response to in-service stress factors and short term stresses, such as water ingress, mechanical damage and imperfections left from manufacturing and installation processes, will be key to success in improved LCM of the vast amount of cable assets around the world

State-of-the-art on research and applications of machine learning in the building life cycle

Fueled by big data, powerful and affordable computing resources, and advanced algorithms, machine learning has been explored and applied to buildings research for the past decades and has demonstrated its potential to enhance building performance. This study systematically surveyed how machine learning has been applied at different stages of building life cycle. By conducting a literature search on the Web of Knowledge platform, we found 9579 papers in this field and selected 153 papers for an in-depth review. The number of published papers is increasing year by year, with a focus on building design, operation, and control. However, no study was found using machine learning in building commissioning. There are successful pilot studies on fault detection and diagnosis of HVAC equipment and systems, load prediction, energy baseline estimate, load shape clustering, occupancy prediction, and learning occupant behaviors and energy use patterns. None of the existing studies were adopted broadly by the building industry, due to common challenges including (1) lack of large scale labeled data to train and validate the model, (2) lack of model transferability, which limits a model trained with one data-rich building to be used in another building with limited data, (3) lack of strong justification of costs and benefits of deploying machine learning, and (4) the performance might not be reliable and robust for the stated goals, as the method might work for some buildings but could not be generalized to others. Findings from the study can inform future machine learning research to improve occupant comfort, energy efficiency, demand flexibility, and resilience of buildings, as well as to inspire young researchers in the field to explore multidisciplinary approaches that integrate building science, computing science, data science, and social science

Wave modelling - the state of the art

This paper is the product of the wave modelling community and it tries to make a picture of the present situation in this branch of science, exploring the previous and the most recent results and looking ahead towards the solution of the problems we presently face. Both theory and applications are considered. The many faces of the subject imply separate discussions. This is reflected into the single sections, seven of them, each dealing with a specific topic, the whole providing a broad and solid overview of the present state of the art. After an introduction framing the problem and the approach we followed, we deal in sequence with the following subjects: (Section) 2, generation by wind; 3, nonlinear interactions in deep water; 4, white-capping dissipation; 5, nonlinear interactions in shallow water; 6, dissipation at the sea bottom; 7, wave propagation; 8, numerics. The two final sections, 9 and 10, summarize the present situation from a general point of view and try to look at the future developments

Wind energy forecasting with neural networks: a literature review

Renewable energy is intermittent by nature and to integrate this energy into the Grid while assuring safety and stability the accurate forecasting of there newable energy generation is critical. Wind Energy prediction is based on the ability to forecast wind. There are many methods for wind forecasting based on the statistical properties of the wind time series and in the integration of meteorological information, these methods are being used commercially around the world. But one family of new methods for wind power fore castingis surging based on Machine Learning Deep Learning techniques. This paper analyses the characteristics of the Wind Speed time series data and performs a literature review of recently published works of wind power forecasting using Machine Learning approaches (neural and deep learning networks), which have been published in the last few years.Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version