A multi-species modelling approach to examine the impact of alternative climate change adaptation strategies on range shifting ability in a fragmented landscape

An individual-based model of animal dispersal and population dynamics was used to test the effects of different climate change adaptation strategies on species range shifting ability, namely the improvement of existing habitat, restoration of low quality habitat and creation of new habitat. These strategies were implemented on a landscape typical of fragmentation in the United Kingdom using spatial rules to differentiate between the allocation of strategies adjacent to or away from existing habitat patches. The total area being managed in the landscape was set at realistic levels based on recent habitat management trends. Eight species were parameterised to broadly represent different stage structure, population densities and modes of dispersal. Simulations were initialised with the species occupying 20% of the landscape and run for 100 years. As would be expected for a range of real taxa, range shifting abilities were dramatically different. This translated into large differences in their responses to the adaptation strategies. With conservative (0.5%) estimates of the area prescribed for climate change adaptation, few species display noticeable improvements in their range shifting, demonstrating the need for greater investment in future adaptation. With a larger (1%) prescribed area, greater range shifting improvements were found, although results were still species-specific. It was found that increasing the size of small existing habitat patches was the best way to promote range shifting, and that the creation of new stepping stone features, whilst beneficial to some species, did not have such broad effect across different species

Resilience to climate change in a cross-scale tourism governance context: a combined quantitative-qualitative network analysis

Social systems in mountain regions are exposed to a number of disturbances, such as climate change. Calls for conceptual and practical approaches on how to address climate change have been taken up in the literature. The resilience concept as a comprehensive theory-driven approach to address climate change has only recently increased in importance. Limited research has been undertaken concerning tourism and resilience from a network governance point of view. We analyze tourism supply chain networks with regard to resilience to climate change at the municipal governance scale of three Alpine villages. We compare these with a planned destination management organization (DMO) as a governance entity of the same three municipalities on the regional scale. Network measures are analyzed via a quantitative social network analysis (SNA) focusing on resilience from a tourism governance point of view. Results indicate higher resilience of the regional DMO because of a more flexible and diverse governance structure, more centralized steering of fast collective action, and improved innovative capacity, because of higher modularity and better core- periphery integration. Interpretations of quantitative results have been qualitatively validated by interviews and a workshop. We conclude that adaptation of tourism-dependent municipalities to gradual climate change should be dealt with at a regional governance scale and adaptation to sudden changes at a municipal scale. Overall, DMO building at a regional scale may enhance the resilience of tourism destinations, if the municipalities are well integrated

Insights for Managers from Modeling Species Interactions across Multiple Scales in an Idealized Landscape

In recent years there has been a shift in biodiversity efforts from protected areas to one of interlinked habitat patches across multiple land tenure types. Much work remains on how managers can intervene in such systems to achieve basic goals. We use an agent-based model of a metapopulation with predator–prey dynamics and density-dependent migration to examine theoretically the capacity of a manager to modify the ecosystem to achieve conservation goals. We explore management strategies aimed at maintaining one of two goals – local or global coexistence of species. To achieve their goal, the manager varies the connectivity between patches based on one of three strategies – the monitoring of predator, prey, or the vegetation carrying capacity of the patches. We find that strategies that lead to highest coexistence monitor mid-tier populations globally. Our goal is to use our model results to advance decision-making in conservation beyond protected areas, typical in today\u27s conservation

Governing the urban water commons : essays on collaborative policy networks in a polycentric ecology of urban water policy games.

Governing social-ecological systems, such as the urban water commons, is a multi-scale and multi-sector (polycentric) human-environment process. This dissertation interrogates this process by situating itself within the Ecology of Games Framework by Norton Long (and updated by Mark Lubell) and the literature on polycentric governance by the Bloomington School of Political Economy. The dissertation’s three essays 1) offer both theoretical and methodological means to enact polycentric public economies within the ecology of games framework, and 2) explicate the conditions under which interoganizational collaboration is fostered within a polycentric ecology of policy games in governing the Middle Rio Grande urban watershed. First, it deploys a synthesized theoretical construct which puts into conversation three theoretical paradigms to excavate the conceptual pillars to study the polycentricity of urban water governance in the United States. A novel conceptual tool is hereby constructed to help engage the thoughts that polycentricity is not the antithesis of monocentricity but the co-constitution of actors at multiple governing scales and within multiple sectors. Second, the conceptual pillars are reworked into theoretical and methodological models to study the polycentricity of governing the Middle Rio Grande (MRG) urban watershed in New Mexico, USA. Four indices are developed to measure the level of political, market, nonprofit, and overall polycentricity in governing this urban water commons. Employing multiple methods like the social network analysis, social-ecological network analysis (SENA), and regression analysis, the dissertation’s findings suggest that polycentric water governance could primarily be about the politics of power and resource distribution, the reconfigurations of actors’ positionalities as they align themselves and their interests strategically. This, among other findings in the dissertation, points to the need to centralize the politics of power and resource distribution in the study of polycentricity in social-ecological governance. Third and finally, the overall polycentric index is used to model the role of polycentricity in interorganizational collaboration within the Middle Rio Grande (MRG) urban water commons. The exponential random graph models (ERGMs) is used in this analysis. Among other findings, the results show that polycentric governance increases the probability of interorganizational collaboration within the MRG. The implications of the dissertation’s three cohesive essays to theory, methods and policy are discussed in the conclusion chapter of the dissertation. In all, this dissertation concludes that there is still no panacea in governing the (urban water) commons

Boundaries and Bridges in Rangeland Social-Ecological Systems: Studies of Collaboration, Innovation, and Information Flow

Public rangelands are managed by a mixture of federal, state, and local governments. Often, these groups are charged with managing adjacent lands that are part of the same greater landscape. To do this effectively, communication and collaboration is required. This dissertation examines federal, state, and local agencies’ level of communication through three projects. The first project examined barriers to agencies adopting management tools from each other. I found that individuals within agencies were mainly staying within their own agency when seeking advice, so individuals were not communicating about tools or their findings across agencies. Furthermore, agency policies and fear of being sued restricted individuals’ ability to adopt management tools. The second project studied how land and wildlife managers in Southeastern Utah work together, or not, in managing mule deer populations that migrate to and from land managed by different agencies. I found that managers are working together to manage mule deer populations, but there are only a few individuals that tie everyone together. The third project looked at how federal, state, and local governments work together to rehabilitate lands after a wildfire that burned parts of Southwestern Idaho and Southeastern Oregon. I found that policy decisions at the federal level can heavily impact who works together and when. All three projects revealed that there are still barriers to federal, state, and local governments working together to manage the same landscape. However, the results from this dissertation also highlight opportunities for bridging the gap between agencies and, ultimately, improving management of rangelands