Modeling Financial Time Series with Artificial Neural Networks

Financial time series convey the decisions and actions of a population of human actors over time. Econometric and regressive models have been developed in the past decades for analyzing these time series. More recently, biologically inspired artificial neural network models have been shown to overcome some of the main challenges of traditional techniques by better exploiting the non-linear, non-stationary, and oscillatory nature of noisy, chaotic human interactions. This review paper explores the options, benefits, and weaknesses of the various forms of artificial neural networks as compared with regression techniques in the field of financial time series analysis.CELEST, a National Science Foundation Science of Learning Center (SBE-0354378); SyNAPSE program of the Defense Advanced Research Project Agency (HR001109-03-0001

Ant colony system-based applications to electrical distribution system optimization

Chapter 16, February 201

Embedding Graphs under Centrality Constraints for Network Visualization

Visual rendering of graphs is a key task in the mapping of complex network data. Although most graph drawing algorithms emphasize aesthetic appeal, certain applications such as travel-time maps place more importance on visualization of structural network properties. The present paper advocates two graph embedding approaches with centrality considerations to comply with node hierarchy. The problem is formulated first as one of constrained multi-dimensional scaling (MDS), and it is solved via block coordinate descent iterations with successive approximations and guaranteed convergence to a KKT point. In addition, a regularization term enforcing graph smoothness is incorporated with the goal of reducing edge crossings. A second approach leverages the locally-linear embedding (LLE) algorithm which assumes that the graph encodes data sampled from a low-dimensional manifold. Closed-form solutions to the resulting centrality-constrained optimization problems are determined yielding meaningful embeddings. Experimental results demonstrate the efficacy of both approaches, especially for visualizing large networks on the order of thousands of nodes.Comment: Submitted to IEEE Transactions on Visualization and Computer Graphic

Laplacian Mixture Modeling for Network Analysis and Unsupervised Learning on Graphs

Laplacian mixture models identify overlapping regions of influence in unlabeled graph and network data in a scalable and computationally efficient way, yielding useful low-dimensional representations. By combining Laplacian eigenspace and finite mixture modeling methods, they provide probabilistic or fuzzy dimensionality reductions or domain decompositions for a variety of input data types, including mixture distributions, feature vectors, and graphs or networks. Provable optimal recovery using the algorithm is analytically shown for a nontrivial class of cluster graphs. Heuristic approximations for scalable high-performance implementations are described and empirically tested. Connections to PageRank and community detection in network analysis demonstrate the wide applicability of this approach. The origins of fuzzy spectral methods, beginning with generalized heat or diffusion equations in physics, are reviewed and summarized. Comparisons to other dimensionality reduction and clustering methods for challenging unsupervised machine learning problems are also discussed.Comment: 13 figures, 35 reference