Bayesian model averaging over tree-based dependence structures for multivariate extremes

Describing the complex dependence structure of extreme phenomena is particularly challenging. To tackle this issue we develop a novel statistical algorithm that describes extremal dependence taking advantage of the inherent hierarchical dependence structure of the max-stable nested logistic distribution and that identifies possible clusters of extreme variables using reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques. Parsimonious representations are achieved when clusters of extreme variables are found to be completely independent. Moreover, we significantly decrease the computational complexity of full likelihood inference by deriving a recursive formula for the nested logistic model likelihood. The algorithm performance is verified through extensive simulation experiments which also compare different likelihood procedures. The new methodology is used to investigate the dependence relationships between extreme concentration of multiple pollutants in California and how these pollutants are related to extreme weather conditions. Overall, we show that our approach allows for the representation of complex extremal dependence structures and has valid applications in multivariate data analysis, such as air pollution monitoring, where it can guide policymaking

A technology framework for the East Midlands 2008-2011

This provides a framework for targeting support for technology development by focusing on a limited number of priority areas and demonstrates a clear understanding of the region's technology strengths to investors, collaborators and policymakers

Green fingers

The core team of TILMAN-ORG, Drs Paul Mäder, Christophe David and Julia Cooper, discuss their aims to develop organic farming and conservation agricultural practices through the TILMAN-ORG project, and what challenges must be overcome

The Small Business Sector report 2014

The Small Business Sector Report 2014 is a government publication that provides a factual source of information in an accessible format on the small businesses that make up a large part of the New Zealand economy. New Zealand needs to encourage firms of all sizes to operate at their peak potential to meet the goals of our Business Growth Agenda. The report includes international comparisons, international trade, innovation, and a summary of small businesses from the perspective of different industries nationally. Its aim is to provide an overview of New Zealand’s small business sector for business people, policy makers, media commentators, economists, academics, students and anyone with an interest in New Zealand’s economic development. See Related Content below: Small Business factsheet 201